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RUSSIA ON THE WORLD MAP
20 years of chaotic transition
by V. Kuvaldin, A.Kuvaldina


From the Soviet Union to Russian Federation
2



Triple transition: From one country to another From one state to another From one system to another


Soviet Union: Hard power.
3



Territorially biggest country in the world Ric h in natural resources Second industrial powerhouse in the world. Leading sectors:







Military-industrial establishment with nuclear-missile capabilities Cosmos exploration Nuclear energy researc h

Biggest army in the world The centre of communist empire


Soviet Union: Soft Power.
4







Superpower image Alternative global ideological paradigm Leading science (~ 20 Nobel Prize winners) Cultural wealth (classical Russian literature, Soviet art and unofficial art) Sport ac hievements (Olympic prize winners)


Soviet social system
5






Free universal healthcare system Free universal education Low income inequality Relatively low crime rate Low corruption Life expectancy - 70 years (by 1965)


Was Soviet system reformable?
6

Pro


Contra




Generally strong institutions Large human capital Resource base Developed economy Arc hie Brown, Steve Cohen








Complex and vulnerable state structure Lost economic and social dynamism, deepening systemic crisis (failing growth rates, growing crime rate, expansion of cynicism) Rigid politic and economic system Over-militarization of economy Lack of civil society


7

Big leap forward, instead of ordered transition





Political system Ideology Self-identity Property relations Economic system Foreign Policy


Price of transition
8

Soviet Union

Russia

ѕ of territory
2/ 3 of economic potential

Ѕ of population


TERRITORIAL LOSS:
Russia returned to 17th century borders


Transition in numbers
10

Soviet Union Territory Population, mln Birth rate Mortality rate 22,402,000 km2 (1991) 293 (1991) 2,2 (1987/88) 10 per 1000 (1990) 26% (1986) 3,5 (late 1980s)

Russia ­ 1990

s

2000 - 2011

17,100,000 km2
147,4 (1989) 1,5 (1992) 1,19 (1999) 142,9 (1 April, 2011) 1,5 (2010)

16 per 1000 (1994 2008)

Poverty rate, %
Gini coefficient Researc h and development spending, % of GDP

33,5 (1992)

13
42% (2009) 1.3


Transition in economy
11







1989 ­ 1998 ­ transitional shock (GDP - 55% of the pre-recession 1989 level). Growth of shadow economy (~50% of GDP) Growth of income inequality (Decile coefficient: 8 (1992), 17 (2007)
1998 ­ 2008 - ~ 7% annual growth (1989 GDP level still is not reac hed, estimated to in 2012)




12

New Russia
New Challenges


Two major transition tasks:
13

Transition to liberal democracy Transition to modern market economy


What went wrong and why?
14



The answer depends on: Who are you? Have you lost or gained during the transition? What do you stand for?


Peculiar Russian market: 5 embedded characteristics of Russian capitalism
15

Retarded capitalism Dependent capitalism

Peripheral capitalism Returned capitalism

Shy capitalism


Dramatic economic transition. Reasons:
16

Economic:


Institutional:






Distortions in production structure (overindusrialization, overmilitarization, monopolism) Per verted trade flows among former Soviet republics and Comecon countries Shock without therapy: loss of industrial base.



Institutional collapse Weak rule of law Poor business environment

Russia did worse economically during transition than most other countries in Europe and Asia.


Change in foreign trade pattern
17



From military to resource oriented economy:



- share of mineral products, metals and diamonds in Russian exports in 2007 (compared to 52% in 1990); - share of mac hinery and equipment in 2007 (18 in 1990).

81% 6%

Resource oriented economy has been a persistent trend in post-Soviet Russia. The country lacks strategy of economic development and modernization.


Major players
18





Super-presidency Corrupt bureaucracy "Siloviki" Passive but influential society


Russian system: new incarnation
19







Intertwined political and economic power Monolithic power, without any c hecks and balances Omnipotent presidency vs. weak legislative and judicial powers Staged election Powerless ruling party Controlled media

Institutional inefficiency


Social degradation
20









Fragmented and distorted system of values (from national to individual) Unbridled individualism with no sense of social responsibility Endemic corruption Dramatic fall in quality and availability of all public goods, from healthcare to law and order Weak civil society


Putin's stabilization
21






Prevented disintegration of the country Oligarc hs reined A decade of economic growth Increases in government revenues and spending Accumulation of foreign exc hange reser ves Decreased mortality, murder, and suicide rates


Russia today
22

2010 GDP (PPP) $2.223 trillion

GDP (Official Exc hange Rate)
GDP Per Capita (PPP) Exports HDI Democracy index (Economist)

$1.465 trillion
$15,900 $377 billion 0.719 (High human development category) 4,26/10 (Hybrid regime category, 107 out of 167) (1 ­ highest level of freedom to 7)

Freedom House Freedom in the Political Rights Score: 6 World Rating Civil Liberties Score: 5 Status: Not Free Corruption Perceptions Index The World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators
(indicators are measured in units ranging from -2.5 to 2.5, higher values better)

2.1/10 (154 place out of 178) Government Effectiveness Rule of Law -0,28 -0,77


Modern Russia: Mixed outcome
23

Pro


Contra






Freedoms Overcoming of deficit of consumer goods Emergence of self-reliant middle class Some degree of responsiveness of power

Vague self-identification Imitational democracy Unaccountable power Uncompetitive market Geopolitical loneliness