Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.mse-msu.ru/Nekipeliv_31012011.pdf Дата изменения: Wed Feb 2 10:17:07 2011 Дата индексирования: Mon Oct 1 20:22:27 2012 Кодировка:

Prof. A.Nekipelov Moscow School of Economics, Moscow State University Lomonosov

The Concepts of Economic Growth and Economic Development: Standard Macroeconomics and "Pure Economics" Approaches
A Lecture Presented on January 31, 2011 at the International School f or Students Organized by IASSA and Department of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics, MSU Lomonosov


Economic Growth and Its Measurement by Standard Macro






Theory of economic growth ­ a component part of (standard) macroeconomics Economic growth = dynamics of the volume of f inal goods and services ("aggregate product") produced during a selected time unit The "scalar nature" of the notion "aggregate product volume" in macroeconomics ­ is measured by one single value indicator (national income, gross national product, gross domestic product etc.)

2


Economic Growth, Social WellBeing and Economic Development in Standard Macroeconomics




Value of "aggregate product" as indicator of social (national) well-being Economic growth = economic development Rates of economic growth as the ultimate measure of success

3


Practical Consequences of Standard Macroeconomic Approach






Special attention to precise measuring of the "volume of economic activity" (introduction all over the world of "the system of national accounts") W idespread internation al comparisons of growth rates Increased interest to modeling economic growth

4


Well-known Problems






Problems in comparing values of aggregat e product in time and in space Some important areas of economic activity (i.e. labor within households) are not taken into account Harmf ul consequences of human activity are ignored Some aspects of social lif e, which we f eel are important f or social well-being, are not taken into account by the volume of "aggregate product" (i.e. income dif f erentiation within society)

5


Standard Reaction




Endeavors to improve the methodology of determining the volume of "aggregate product" (NEW indicator by J.Tobin and W .Nordhaus, 1972) Proposals to take into account a system of indicators rather than a single one when measuring social well-being and its dynamics (as a result economic growth is no more equal to economic development: emergence of "developm ent economics" as a special economic discipline)

6


Can Standard Reaction Fully Satisfy Us?
It improves our understanding of the ends of economic activity, its efficienc y, but:




the search f or optimal single indicator cannot completely overcome an obstacle of lacking markets f or the results of some human activities; system of indicators approach is not able to provide us with a def inite measure of social well being, which would be theoretically consistent (any index depends on the weights of dif f erent parameters)

7


Back to "Aggregate Product"


"Aggregate product" is a vector of goods and services, not a scalar It is transformed in the scalar form by the means of prices, which are market product Limited applicability of the notion "aggregate product volume" ­ only to market economy Limited comparability of "aggregate products" in space and time (the result depends on the set of prices used)

8


Micro- and Macro- Approach to Well-being






In microeconomics individual income may be regarded under given set of prices as a measure of well-being only because the income can be transf ormed in a bundle of goods and services maximizing her (his) utility f unction In macroeconomics aggregat e income is considered to be a di rect measure of social well-being; It is not meant to be exchanged f or a new bundle of goods Microeconomics postulates impossibility of inter personal comparison of utility; macroeconomic notion of aggregat e income violates this axiom

9


A.Pigou on "Pure" and "Realistic" Science in Economics
"For there are two main types of positive science. On the one side are the sciences of formal logic and pure mathematics, whose function it is to discover implications. On the other side are the realistic sciences, such as physics, chemistry and biology, which are concerned with actualities...This distinction is applicable to the field of economic investigation. It is open to us to construct an economic science either of the pure type represented by pure mathematics or of the realistic type represented by experimental physics. Pure economics in this sense...would study equilibria and disturbances of equilibria among groups of persons actuated by any set of motives x...Contrasted with this pure science stands realistic economics, the interest of which is concentrated upon the world known in experience..." (The Economics of W elfare. First published: 1920)

10


Do We Need Pure Macro?






Microeconomics ­ pure science, standard macroeconomics ­ realistic science Application of micro approach to macro level would mean a realization of pure (vector) macroeconomics. General equilibrium theory and "vector macro" will not coincide with each other only if we accept that operation of market mechanism do not always lead to socially optimal results

11


How Micro Approach Can Be Applied to Macro Level?


W e need:




The system of soci al preferences with regard to dif f erent states of the world Inf ormation on the available resources





Then we can discover the tangency point of the production possibilities frontier and one of the indifference curves (planes) This approach would help formalize such widely used notions as "social interest" and "priorities"

12


K.Arrow "Possibility Theorem" As a Huge Obstacle
The meaning of the theorem: Under certain natural assumptions with regard to the properties of group preferences there exists no social choice rule, but decision-mak ing by dictator, which could transform individual preferences of the group members into group preferences
13


Research Directions Aimed at Solving the "Arrow Problem"




Sof tening initial assumptions ref erring to the properties of group pref erences Substituting the idea of "a unique point of consent under given decision-making algorithm" among the group members f or the idea of group pref erences based in individual pref erences of the group members; Accepting as a postulate existence of group pref erences practically unrelated with the individual group member pref erences ("organic state approach")

14


Conclusions: Pure Economics




Pure economic theory of social well-being cannot be directly applied to the analysis of real economy and political decision -mak ing, because many of its parameters are unobservable. But it helps understand both complex internal forces driving the society and usefulness and limitations of realistic science in dealing with them

15


Conclusions: Standard Macroeconomics




Standard macroeconomics and theory of economic growth as its important component part reduce complex multidimensional reality to a relatively simple scalar one They simplif y the reality, thus helping its assessment and the decision-making But they inevitably produce some distortions and additional "realistic analysis" (development economics) is theref ore needed to f ill the gap between economic growth and economic developm ent

16