Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.mce.biophys.msu.ru/archive/doc15657/doc.pdf Дата изменения: Fri Oct 26 19:09:06 2007 Дата индексирования: Mon Oct 1 20:59:59 2012 Кодировка:

­ .. () ­ . , , . , . , , . THE ECONOMIC INEQUALITY IS THE DETERMINATIVE OF SLOWING TRANSITION TO THE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY Varshavsky A.E. (Moscow) The problem of slowing transition to the new phase of human development ­ knowledge society under income differentiation growth is discussed. Estimation of the level of income differentiation is worked out on the basis of proposed by author index of inequality; it is shown that average world income distribution is described by some distribution law. It is shown as well that the inequality level is rather strongly correlated with indicators of the knowledge economy. Possible ways for decreasing economic inequality and especially change of individual income tax are under consideration.

220


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, , . , : 100 000 ( 8000 ) 87 000 , ­ 49 500 ­ 71 100 . , . , . , ( , ..), . , , , , ­ , [2]. ­ , . , , 1979 ., ( 1% 1979-1989 . 87,5%, 40% ). , , - , . . , 1977-1985 . 1% 95,5 . . 80%
223


2.

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224


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; () : F (x) = 1 ­ (b/X)a. , .. , , ( , , )4. « » ( 80/20) , 80% 20% . , m = 1 (Zipf distribution), , 5 (, 245412 «the» 15861 , "of" ­ 6331 , .. 2 ; m = 0,994 ­ 1,059 6). , . F(X) - ( , ), G(F) = 2


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.. .-- -10, 2002, .207-219

+ a2). .2 a I 46 ( , 1). ( ) : , , . , ( ) , , , , , , . . ( 2) , ( , ). , -, , , a, , , , , , , , , - . a . , ­ a , a : 1 =(3)ј, 2 =(3)Ѕ, 2 =(2)Ѕ, 2 =2, 3 =(3)Ѕ, 2 =3, 46 =(2)Ѕ 2 =2. , ( , 2) 20% 20% 2 , , , (2)Ѕ .
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, .. z5 = 1, z4 = 2, z3 = 2(2)Ѕ, z2 = 4, z1 = 4(2)Ѕ. -, , a = (2)Ѕ , ( 1 , , 3 ­ ). , 2 - (, , [8] 1996 ., I = 34, .. 3, =(3)Ѕ; , ­ 10% , =(3)1/4, 3). . 1990- : , , , , , ( 4-5 .). . ( 15 . . ­ 1990- . 25% ), . , ( ) 1980- 17%
228


.. .-- -10, 2002, .207-219

8% , ­ 25%, ­ 28%, 37%, 44%. 22-48 , 1970 ., , , 20% , 1970- - , 1980- . - 34%. 20% 1970- . 29% 1980- . 56%. .3 , 1970-2000 . 30 30% 15 1970 . 21 2000 .; (3)1/4 (2)1/2. , 20% . .4 , 20% 70-90% , 30 ( 20% ). , , - , 1990 ., ­ - 1990 . , , (. .3,4), , , 1990- . ­ 20% , . RLMS, .. , . 229


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250 , 81,5% 20% , 17,6 , 80% 52 20% ( 1970 . , 20-30 ; 1970 . 100 - 39 , 2000 . 1000 [9]; CEO ). , : , , , % , / , , , , .. , . , () , ( ; ). 5 . .5 , ( 26 ; 230


.. .-- -10, 2002, .207-219

0,95 0,39 [4]) .5, ( , ); , , , , ( ­ 0,3). .6, , . , 10-15 ( , 1990-2000 . 1,128 , . . : , , , , , , .. ,
231


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1990- ( 1990 . , , 300-500 ., 2002 . ­ 120 .) . , ( ). ­ . 40%. : 20%. ­ 13%. , , . - , ­ ( 35%), . .7. . , , -, 1990 . , , . , 1930-1960- . ­ 3 , . , , ( ), : " ­ , ( ), " (!?). :
232


.. .-- -10, 2002, .207-219

, , , , , , ? , . , 25 . . (.., 100% [10]). 15 87%? , , , , , . (, 1980- . 37% (1988 .), ­ 3% (1986 .)), . , , . . , 2001 . 0,2%; 9,4% ( 1996 . 15,8%, 1997 . - 17,7%) [11]. , , . (, ­ , ­ , , ,
233


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., 1960- . 87% 50%). , , , ( ) , ( ) ( , , , ..) [12]. , , ( ). , , , "". , , . , . , , , , , , , (, 1957 . 2108 . , 955 . , 404 . 500 . ; 1990 ., 1995 . ­ 22540, 16160, 16460 6230 . ). ( 1982 .) , 1950 . 791,8 , 1960 . -1091,1 ., 1970 . ­ 1668,1 ., 1982 . ­ 2261,5 , 1988 ­ 3476 . , 1950-1960 . 1990- ­ 2000- . , , 1950 ­ ­ 1960- . . , 1961 .,
234


.. .-- -10, 2002, .207-219

, [12, .208] , , (. .8). 1950- ­ 1960- . , , 5000 . . 1959 . 6500 . 1950- . 3,3-3,4 . , 1900 . ( 1959 2680 .). 1992 . 21,5 . . , ­ 27,9 . . ­ 8200 . , "" , 2002 . 4500 . 54 .. ( 2001 . ­ 3240 . 38,9 .. ), , , , , 1950- - 1960- . 5000 . , 15%. , 1960- ., , 54 .. (145 . ) 15%, 216 .. ( 580 . ) ­ 24% 540 .. (1450 . ) ­ 40% 5400 .. (14,5 . ) ­ 80% . , 1980 . 20% ( a = (2)1/2). . , 235


2.

2002 ., , ( ). , , . , , , . , , , . . , - . , .
1. , %*) , % **) 2000 . 2003 . 2003 . 1 193,1 179,4 40,7/40,3 3 150,5 149,8 46,7/51,1 4 153,9 145,0 41,9/45,7 5 ... 145,0 24,7/32,4 11 138,7 135,5 36,7/39,4 19 123,6 124,9 24,9/31,9 26 143,0 116,6 50,5/42,1 38 124,5 92,6 13,0/13,0 42 90,0 88,9 28,9/27,3 49 ... 79,3 31,0/31,2 50 ... 74,3 26,2/28,1 51 ... 43,0 13,6/13,6 *) **) ­ 100 . ., ­ 200 . . 236


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3. 1970-2000 . 20% 1-4 2- 3- 4- I 20% 1970 7,6 3 ,4 2,3 1,7 15,0 1980 7,8 3 ,5 2,3 1,7 15,3 1990 9,6 4 ,1 2,7 1,9 18,3 2000 11,0 4 ,8 3,1 2,21 21,0 ( ) 1970 4,7 2 ,5 2,0 1,6 11,9 1980 3,3 2 ,3 1,8 1,4 9,8 1990 3,3 2 ,2 1,7 1,4 9,6 2000 8,0 4 ,6 3,2 2,2 19,0 13,2 9 ,5 6,4 3,7 34 [4]

237


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51,9

25,0

15,5

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4. 20% , 1970-2000 . , 4- - 3- - 20% 1-3 1-2 1-4 1970 0,69 0,68 1,00 1980 0,70 0,71 1,04 1990 0,79 0,74 1,08 2000 0,90 0,77 1,10 1970 0,58 0,56 0,80 1980 0,50 0,53 0,75 1990 0,49 0,55 0,76 2000 0,91 0,68 0,90

5. ( , ) , % - 0,43 / + 0,51 - 0,61 + 0,44 +0,50

238


.. .-- -10, 2002, .207-219 6. . / , . 1000 : 0,155 0,436 0,072 ( 100 ) 0,199 1000 0,259 0,057 1000 100 , 0,397 ""() 1000 0,008 % 16 0,130 ( - 18 ) 7. 1990- . ) 22 100 15% 3315 + 28% 22 100 53 500 22 100 . 12 107 . + 31% 53 500 115 000 53 500 . 31 172 +_ 36% 115 000 250 000 . 115 000 . 79 772 + 39,6% 250 000 . 250 000 .
13

239


2. 8. : 1961 . 2001 . , 1961 . , 2001 . - ­ , - . ./ . - () % , - , , , , , , . . . 1961 ., 1961 ., 1961 ., . . ., . / % . . / % 0 0 1,2 0/0 1,2/100 13 416 35 12 20 3 360/12 2,64/88 32 1045 87 15,2 20 5,1 760/15,2 4,24/84,8 54 1742 145 17,7 22 8 1416/17,7 6,584/82,3 86 2787 232 18,9 26 10 1888/18,9 8,112/81,1 108 3484 290 24,4 34 20 4870/24,4 15,13/75,6 216 6968 581 39,2 59 50 19600/39,2 30,4/60,8 540 17419 1452 52,8 72 100 52800/52,8 47,2/47,2 1080 34839 2903 67 87 200 134000/67 66/33 2160 69677 5806 80,8 91 500 404000/80,8 96/19,2 5400 174194 14516 85,9 91 1000 859000/85,9 141/14,1 10800 348387 29032 .../87 .../13 21600 696774 58065 87 87 2000

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. .: , 1998. 5 http: // www. ecom. unimelb. edu. au/ecowww/rdixon/pareto.html. 6 Axtell R. Zipf Distribution of U.S. Firm Sizes. Science, vol. 293, 7 September 2001. 7 .., .. . ­ .: «», 2002. 8 .. . . , 33, . 4, 1997. 9 , , . The Economist. , 2003, 30 ­ 6 , .44. 10 .. .-.:"", 1995, .1. 11 , 2002, N 2. 12 . . .: , 1964. 13 J.K. McNulty. Federal Income Taxation of Individuals. West Group. St. Paul, Minn., 1999.

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