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................................................................................................. 4 I. 1992-2008 . ............................... 35
§1. 1992-1999 . ............................................................................. 35 §2. 2000-2008 . ............................................................................. 66

II. 1992-2008 . ............. 109
§1. 1992-1999 . ......................................... 109 §2. 2000-2008 .......................................... 131

III. 1992-2008 . ........................................................... 167
§1. 1992-1999 . .......................................................................................................................... 167

2


§2. 2000-2008 . .......................................................................................................................... 178 §3. ... 198

IV. 1992-2008 . ................................................................................. 215
§1. 1992-1999 . .......................................................................................................................... 215 §2. 2000-2008 ........................................................................................................................... 226

....................................................................................... 248 ................................................................................... 264

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.. . .: ,2002; . . .: , 2012.; . // ­ , , . . - :, 1992. 11 .78-82; . ( )// ­ , , . . - :, 1995. 3 .27-38; . .// ­ , , . . :, 1996. 2 .25-37; . // ­ , , . . - :, 1996. 12 .71-80; . . // ­ , , . . - :, 1999. 12 . 34 ­ 47; . : ?// -: , , . . - :, 2000. 11 . 54 ­ 68; . : // -: , , . . - :, 2001. 12 . 53 ­ 69; . : .// -: , , . . :, 2002. 10 . 3 ­ 15; . : .// -: , , . . - :, 2003. 12 . 3 ­ 14; . ( )// -: , , . . - :, 2006. 1 . 3 ­ 14;

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( , « »), . , , , .
107


, 1990- . ( , ), ­ . , , , , ( , , .), . , . 90- . , , 2000-2008 . ( , , « »), , « ». , .

108


II. 1992-2008 .
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399

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400

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401

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., . ? , ...C.44; Aslund A. Eurasia letter: Ukranian's turnaround // Foreign policy.100. 1995..127. 399 Rumer Eu. B. Eurasia Letter: Will Ukraine return to Russia ?...P.135. 400 Ibid. 401 ., . ...C.15. 402 . ...C.136.

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. , « » , 1990- . XX
405



.

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403

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409







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« , »
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, , »
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413

. (,
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. ...C.110. 411 Kubicek P. Russian foreign policy and the West...P.558; Garnett Sh. Europe's crossroads: Russia and the West in the new borderlands...P.87. 412 Rivera D.W. Engagement, containment and the international politics of Eurasia...P.94. 413 Engaging Russia: a report to the Trilateral CommissionP.10-11; Kubicek P. Russian foreign policy and the West...P.559; Garnett Sh. Europe's crossroads: Russia and the West in the new borderlands...P.87; ., . . « ». ­ .: . , 2009. C.206-211; Garnett Sh. Keystone in the arch...P.113-124 414 Aslund A. Eurasia letter: Ukranian's turnaround...P.136.

410

118


»

415

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1997 . , , , , « »
416

.

, . , , 1990- . « »
417

.

, , , - . « » , « » -
418

. , ,

« », 1997 . ,
415

419

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Ibid; Larrabee S. Ukraine at the crossroads...P.54; Pifer St. Averting crisis in Ukraine.Council on foreign relations. Council special report. 41. 2009. P.26-27. 416 Sherr J. The Mortgaging of Ukraine's Independence P.16; Sherr J. Ukraine's new time of trouble...P.23; Garnett Sh. Europe's crossroads: Russia and the West in the new borderlands...P.86; . ...C.110. 417 ., . ? , ...C.47. 418 Sherr J. Ukraine's new time of trouble...P.23; . ...C.111; Garnett Sh. Europe's crossroads: Russia and the West in the new borderlands...P.91-92; Garnett Sh. Keystone in the arch...P.101105. 419 Sherr J. Ukraine's new time of trouble...P.24.

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, - . 1992-1999 . , , «. « », , ...
420

» 1990- .,

.

-



,



. . , « ­ »
421

. ,

, . « », . -, , , . « ,
420 421

Garnett Sh. Europe's crossroads: Russia and the West in the new borderlands...P.92-93. . ...C.104.

120


1991 .... , » , « »
423 422

. , ,





. «... - »
424

. . ,

,

, , . , , « » . - . 1992 .
422

425

. ,



, , ,
426

,

., . ...C.29. 423 Davisha K.,Parrott B. Russia and the new states 424 Ibid...P.215. 425 ., . ...C.73. 426 Garnett Sh. Europe's crossroads: Russia and the

? , of Eurasia : The politics of upheaval...P.43. ? , West in the new borderlands...P.74

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1993 ., 1994 ., « », ,
427

.

, , . 1996 . , , ,
428













. , , ,
429

-

.

1997 . , 1999 . . - , - 1990- .
430

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,

427

....65-66. Garnett Sh. Europe's crossroads: Russia and the West in the new borderlands...P.74; Garnett Sh. Keystone in the arch...P.107-108. 428 . ...C.104; Garnett Sh. Keystone in the arch...P.105. 429 Garnett Sh. Europe's crossroads: Russia and the West in the new borderlands...P.74; Rivera D.W. Engagement, containment and the international politics of Eurasia...P.97. 430 . ...C.104.

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431

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, , , , , . -

. , . , , « ». , , «... , 1991 1992 .» « »
434

.



,
431

Rivera D.W. Engagement, containment and the international politics of Eurasia...P.97; Cohen Ar. Russia's Union with Belarus: Expensive and Troubling...; Brzezinski Zb. The premature partnership...P.75. 432 Garnett Sh. Europe's crossroads: Russia and the West in the new borderlands...P.74-75; . ...C.104 -105. 433 Garnett Sh. Europe's crossroads: Russia and the West in the new borderlands...P.76; . ...C.105. 434 King Ch. Eurasia Letter: Moldova with a Russia face...P.112.

123


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437 435

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436

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, 14 «» . , , , « »
438

.

, , 1992 ., « » . « »
439

.

, , , , « »
435 436

440

. ,

Ibid. Ibid...P.111; Malcolm N., Pravda A., Allison R., Light M. Internal Factors in Russian foreign policy ...P.125; Davisha K.,Parrott B. Russia and the new states of Eurasia : The politics of upheaval...P.240. 437 King Ch. Eurasia Letter: Moldova with a Russia face...P.114; Davisha K.,Parrott B. Russia and the new states of Eurasia : The politics of upheaval...P.240; Rivera D.W. Engagement, containment and the international politics of Eurasia...P.89. 438 King Ch. Eurasia Letter: Moldova with a Russia face...P.111. 439 Ibid...P.106. 440 Lynch D. Separatist States and Post-Soviet Conflicts...P.845.

124


,
441









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442

.

, , , , 1994 .
443

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445 444

. ,

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441 442 443 444 445

King Ch. Eurasia Letter: Moldova with a Russia face...P.115. Lynch D. Separatist States and Post-Soviet Conflicts... P.846. King Ch. Eurasia Letter: Moldova with a Russia face...P.114. . ...C.114. Davisha K.,Parrott B. Russia and the new states of Eurasia : The politics of upheaval...P.45.

125


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446 447 448 449 450 451 452

Garnett Sh. Europe's crossroads: Russia and the West in the new borderlands...P.71. Ibid. Ibid. . ...C.125. Garnett Sh. Europe's crossroads: Russia and the West in the new borderlands...P.72. Davisha K.,Parrott B. Russia and the new states of Eurasia : The politics of upheaval...P.184. Ibid...P.39-40.

126




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453 454 455 456 457 458 459

. ...C.125. Garnett Sh. Europe's crossroads: Russia and the West in the new borderlands...P.73. Ibid...P.75. Davisha K.,Parrott B. Russia and the new states of Eurasia : The politics of upheaval...P.77. Garnett Sh. Europe's crossroads: Russia and the West in the new borderlands...P.76. Goltz Th. Letter from Eurasia: The hidden Russia hand.....93. Garnett Sh. Russia's illusory ambitions...P.71.

127


, , »
460















.

, , ,
461

.

1990- .

, , , ,
462

. ,

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463

.

,
460

. ...C.125; Peters R. Russia, The Baltic states and the West...P.625-628. 461 Peters R. Russia, The Baltic states and the West...P.623-624; Hill. F. Energy empire:oil,gas and Russian revival. The Foreign policy centre. London.2004. P.7; Malcolm N., Pravda A., Allison R., Light M. Internal Factors in Russian foreign policy ...P.266; Rivera D.W. Engagement, containment and the international politics of Eurasia...P.89; Davisha K.,Parrott B. Russia and the new states of Eurasia : The politics of upheaval...P.216. 462 Peters R. Russia, The Baltic states and the West...P.624; Garnett Sh. Europe's crossroads: Russia and the West in the new borderlands...P.84. 463 Garnett Sh. Europe's crossroads: Russia and the West in the new borderlands...P.83.

128


, , . , , , « » , , , 1990- ., , . , . , , -

. , , , : , , . , , , . 1992-1999 . , , , . - ,
129


. , , XXI . . , 1990- ., , . . - , , . , , , «», , , , . ­ , 1990- . ( , , , ).

130


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464

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Brzezinski Zb. Living with Russia...

131


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467 466

,

.

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468

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, , , , » , , . , 1990- ., , , ­ , ,
465 466

Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.29. .., . // : . . . ... ., 2004. .2. 467 Ibid. 468 ... C.277; . Sherr J. Ukraine's Scissors: between Internal Weakness and External Dependence. IFRI.2006.

132




469

.







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470

« » ­ , . , , , « , . , , - »
471

.

, , « »
472

. ,

, , «»
473

.

, - . , . , ,
469

Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.79; . : . . 2004.; . ...; Statfor. ? 7 2005. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20050407/218682.htlm. 470 Cohen Ar. Crisis in Ukraine: U.S. Interests under Threat. The Heritage Foundation.2001. http://www.heritage.org/research/testimony/crisis-in-ukraine-us-interests-under-threat. . . : . CSIS. 2005. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20050629/220621.htlm . 471 . ....110. 472 Graham T. Resurgent Russia...P.25. 473 Sherr J. Ukraine's Scissors: between Internal Weakness...P.11.

133


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474

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475





.

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476

, .

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477

« . ,

:

474 475

Ibid...P.15. Ibid...C.15-16; Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.82,86; ., . ? , ?// : ....50; Sherr J. The Mortgaging of Ukraine's Independence. Chatham House. 2010. P.10. 476 , . . . 2001 . 477 Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.90; Sherr J. Ukraine's Scissors: between Internal Weakness...P.15/

134


- , - ., - . .
479 478

;

- ;
480

- 2001 . , « » -
482 481

,

,

2003 . ;
483

- «»
484

;

- 2001 . .
485

, . , 2003 . , , , ,
478 479

486

.

Sherr J. Ukraine's Scissors: between Internal Weakness; Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.92. Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace......P.85-88; Kramer M. Ukraine, Russia and US Policy. PONARS Policy memo 191. Harvard University. 2001. P.3. 480 Cohen Ar. Crisis in Ukraine: U.S. Interests... 481 Kramer M. Ukraine, Russia and US Policy...P.4. 482 Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.84. 483 Cohen Ar. Crisis in Ukraine: U.S. Interests... 484 Ibid; Kramer M. Ukraine, Russia and US Policy...P.4. 485 ., : . : , // : ....150-156; Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.86-87. 486 . ? 10 2003. The Wall Street Journal. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20031010/196023.html; . . 19

135


, « , »
487

.
488

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489

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491

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490





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, . ., « - ... ,

2003. The Wall Street Journal. http://www.inosmi.ru/inrussia/20030919/193995.html; Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.89. 487 . ....73. 488 ., . ? ....76. 489 Ibid....48. 490 Cohen Ar. Crisis in Ukraine: U.S. Interests... 491 Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.91,94-95.

136





492









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, , , - « , , , , 50- , , » , -
493

.



­ , , , . , (, , 1990- . ), , « , » ,
494

.

2004 .

, . , «

492 493

Cohen Ar. Crisis in Ukraine: U.S. Interests... . ?... 494 . , . 12 2004. The Wall Street Journal. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20041201/215220.html.

137


», - . , , « 1991 .»
495

,

- , « », 2004 . , . - , , , , . , , . , «... , , , . , , ( ) . , »
495

496

. ,

. . In the National Interest. 20 2004. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20040520/209734.htlm. 496 . ­ . The Moscow Times. 20 2004. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20040520/209743.htlm.

138


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498 497



« ­ . , , , , , . « , »
499

. ,

, , « , »
500

. ,

, , , . , , . , Statfor , « ( ­ ..) ­ . , »
501

.









, , « (. ­ ..) »
497

. . The Wall Street Journal. 19 2004. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20041119/214788.htlm. 498 Cohen A. Ukraine's Rape by Elections. The Heritage Foundation. 2004. http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2004/11/ukraines-rape-by-elections. 499 Ibid . 500 . , . The Wall Street Journal. 1 2004. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20041201/215220.htlm. 501 Statfor. "». 15 2005. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20051215/224339.htlm.

139


« , »
502

. «
503

» , «

.

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504











, » . , - . ., , . , , « » .. «» ., « », « » , « ,
502

. . EurasiaNet. 11 2004. http://www.inosmi.ru/inrussia/20041111/214563.htlm. 503 . . The Financial Times. 12 2004. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20041112/214587.htlm. 504 : . Financial Times. 11 2005. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20050111/216206.htlm.

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, , » -
505

. , , «
506

... , , - » , .

, . , , « , , -, »
507

.

, « » « ». , - , , , . , , « « » ... »
508

.

, ,

, « ,
. , . The Moscow Times. 1 2004. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20041201/215231.html; ., . , . The Moscow Times. 1 2004. http://www.inosmi.ru/inrussia/20041208/215465.html; . ? The Washington Post. 17 2004. http://www.inosmi.ru/inrussia/20041217/215716.html; McFaul M. Putin gambles big--and loses//The weekly Standard. V.1013.2004. http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/004/996yfkmq.asp; Charap S,, Troitskiy M.U.S-Russia relations in post-Soviet Eurasia... 506 . . The United Press International. 1 2004. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20041101/214277.htlm. 507 McFaul M. Putin gambles big--and loses... 508 Ibid.
505

141


- »

509

. .

­ , , , « , , » »
510

. , , «

,
511

.
512

. ,

, , « » « » » »
515 514

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513



«, , 1989 . , , , , , « . ,

509 510

Cohen A. Ukraine's Rape by Elections... Ibid. 511 . « » « »... 512 . , , . The Times. 28 2004. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20041228/216034.htlm. 513 . . The Mercury News. 27 2004. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/200411227/216015.htlm. 514 Cohen A. Getting Ukraine to Safe Shores. The Heritage Foundation.2005. http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/01/getting-ukraine-to-safe-shores. 515 Aslund A. Tha Perils of Putin //The Weekly Standart.V.10.15. 2005. http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/005/116hwusb.asp; . , . The Wall Street Journal. 1 2004. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20041201/215220.htlm;; Engaging with Russia : the next phase...P.43; McFaul M. Putin gambles big--and loses...

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517

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518

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«

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519









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. ,

, « « «» » , « »
521

. ,

,

, « ­ , -»
522

.

. .
523

, ,

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( , « » , ) (« » , )
528

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»

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1999 . . , , 90- . , ,
529

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533

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, «
536

, » . -, «
537

», , 2004 . . -, ,
532 533

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538

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539

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, . . , 2000 . « , , , , »
540

. , ,

. ,
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541

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, , « ( . ­ ..) 2001 . »
542

.

, , . , - 2002 ., ( « »)
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­ «»

.

, 2003
544

. . 2002 .

,



2004 . , ,
545

.

541

., . ? ....57. . 2000 . 2001 . . : Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.65; Padhol U., Marples D.R. The Parliamentary Elections in Belarus:Lukashenka's Dress Rehearsal?//The Harriman Review. V.13. .1-2.2001.P.1-7. 542 Ibid....58. 543 Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.67-68. 544 Ibid...P.69. 545 Ibid...P.64.

149


. , , . ­ . , , « 2003 . , . ...
546

, » , ,
547

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« », . . 2004-2005 ., , . 2004 .
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. ,

, « « ».
546 547 548

., . ? ....58. . Wallander C.A. Testimony// Belarus: A crucial step...

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«» « », , , » ,
550 549

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, , « » , , ,

.. , « , , »
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. ,

2006 . , , , .,
552

.













, , , , , ,

549 550

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, ,
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554

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555

.

, , , . « , »
556

.

- - , 2000-2008 . ,

553

Trenin D. Russia`s Policy toward Belarus... .82; . Postimperium: ... .82, 226; Bugajski Ja. Georgian lessons: conflicting Russian and Western interests ...P. 54. 554 Wood A. Russia`s Business Diplomacy. .5. 555 Bugajski Ja. Georgian lessons: conflicting Russian and Western interests ...P. 54, Smith C.K. Russian Energy Policy... .1,9, Lough J. Russia`s Energy Diplomacy. Chatham House. 2011. P. 9; Kramer M. Russian policy towards the Commonwealth of Independent States...P.10; Wallander C. Russian transimperialism and its implications...P.111; . . The Financial Times. 9 2007. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20070109/232045.html.
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Bugajski Ja. Georgian lessons: conflicting Russian and Western interests ...P. 54.

152


, , , . , ,
557

.

, , , « »
558









. ,

« , , « » ...»
559

. , ,
560

«450- » . - , , 2001 . , ,
561

.

, , ,

557

Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.100; Lynch D. Shared neighborhood or new frontline? The crossroads in Moldova. IFRI. 2005. P.8. 558 Smith P.S. Moldova matters: Why Progress is still Possible on Ukraine's Southwestern Flank? The Atlantic Council of The Unates States. Occasional Papers. Washington, D.C. 2005. P. 7. 559 . Postimperium: ... .161. 560 . . The Wall Street Journal. 1 2004. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20041001/213429.htlm. 561 Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.96.

153


2001 .
562

.
563



, . , «» 2003 . 35 «»
564

.

- 2000-2008 . . - , , . , « » status quo ,
565

.

, , « » , .
566

562 563

Ibid...P.101. Smith P.S. Moldova matters...P.8. 564 Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.102. 565 . : Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.103; Smith P.S. Moldova matters...P.; Lynch D. Separatist States and Post-Soviet Conflicts...P.845. 566 . ? 16 2004. The Wall Street Journal. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20040416/209089.html; Lynch D. Separatist States and Post-Soviet Conflicts ...P.845.

154


, : « ( ­ ..) »
567

. ,

(, «»)
568

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- 2003 . «» ­ « ». . « ,



- ... , ). , «». »
569

. . ,

, , , »
567

570

.

« » « ,
571



. ?... . . The Wall Street Journal. 1 2004. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20041001/213429.htlm. 568 Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.102. 569 . ?... 570 Smith P.S. Moldova matters...P.8. 571 Ibid.

155


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572

. ­

- ,

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573



« »

.

, , ­ « »

572 573

Lynch D. Shared neighborhood or new frontline?...P.9-10. . ? The Wall Street Journal. 16 2004. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20040416/209089.html.

156


« » .

574

.

« » « » , , . . . ., 2005 . , « »
575

. . ,



. , , 2005 « »
576

. ,


577



.

« » ., , « » « » « »
578

.

,

574

. . Christian Science Monitor. 1 2004. http://inosmi.ru/inrussia/20040701/210843.html. 575 . . The Wall Street Journal. 4 2005. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20050304/217743.html. 576 Bugajski Ja. The eastern dimension of America's new European allies. 2007.P.102. 577 Ibid. 578 . Postimperium: ....210.; Kramer M. Russian policy towards the Commonwealth of Independent States...P.8.

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.,
579

2006 .

.

, ( ) « , »
580

. ,
581

,

, . , 20002008 ., , , , , . , , 90- . XX ., . , .

« ». , « ... , ... , »
582

.

, , : «
579 580 581 582

Kramer M. Russian policy towards the Commonwealth of Independent States...P.8. . Postimperium: ... .161,210. Kramer M. Russian policy towards the Commonwealth of Independent States...P.8-9. Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.107.

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583

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»

. , , - , : « . , »
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. , «

» , .,
585

.

, 2004 . , , « 11 2001 . , - , ,
583 584

Kramer M. NATO, Tne Baltic states, and Russia. A framework for enlargement.CSIS.2002. P.5. . . 7 2004. The New York Times. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20040407/208891.html. : . . 7 2004. The Washington Times. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20040407/208901.html. 585 Sestanovich S. Where does Russia belong?//The National Interest.2000. 62. http://nationalinterest.org/article/where-does-russia-belong-629

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»
586

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« » , 2001 . .
587

.

.,





, , , « »
588

. , .

« », ,
589

.

, , , , ( ) . , - , « , »
590

.









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, ,
586 587 588 589 590 591

591

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Kramer M. NATO, Tne Baltic states, and Ibid. Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.113. Larrabee S. Testimony//The Baltic states Kramer M. NATO, Tne Baltic states, and Larrabee S. Testimony//The Baltic states

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592

. ,

2007 . ,
593

. ,
594

« » . , . , , , . «» 1999-2001 . , « », 2002-2003 ., «»
595

.

592

. : Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.109-134. 593 Grigas A. Legacies, Coercion and Soft Power... .5; . ....188-191. 594 Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.127. 595 Ibid P.123-124,130. ., , : Grigas A. Legacies, Coercion and Soft Power: Russian Influence in the Baltic Sates. Chatham House.2012 P.3-8; Larrabee S. Danger and opportunity in Eastern Europe...P.127.

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596

,
597



.





, , , PKN Orlen. , 2000-2008 . »
598











« . , , , « , », « »
599

.
600

. , , . , ( , ; , ; «
596 597 598 599 600

Larrabee S. Danger and opportunity in Eastern Europe...P.128. Smith C.K. Russiqan Energy Policy and its Challenge...P.5. Bugajski Ja. Cold Peace...P.113. Trenin D. Russian policies toward the Nordic-Baltic region. P.47. Grigas A. Legacies, Coercion and Soft Power... .2.

162


» ) « » , , ,
601

.

, , , - 2008 , ,
602

.

, , , , 2000-2008 . . , 2004-2008 . 2004-2008 . ( - ) , , . . , , , « » , « ».

601 602

Ibid. Bugajski Ja. Georgian lessons: conflicting Russian and Western interests ...P. 61-62.

163


, . , , - . . « », , ( , « »). , 2000-2008 . , 1990- ., , « ». - , , . - ­ , , , . -
164


2004 ., « ». - , , , , , « » « ». . , , , « », , , . , , (« », ). , . - 2000-2008 ., , , , . ­ . 2004 . .. , « »,
165












. . - ,

, . » . . , , 2004 ., , « », . 2000-2008 . . , , , . , , , .

166


III. 1992-2008 .
§1. 1992-1999 . , ­ , . 1992-1999 ., « » , . , . , , « »
603

. , , ,

, ,
604

.

, , « » 1990-
605

. ,
606

,

603 604

Kubicek P. Russian foreign policy and the West...P.561. Ibid. 605 Mandelbaum M. Introduction: Russian foreign policy in historical perspective...P.8; Blank S. Energy and security in the Transcaucasia P.6. 606 Engaging Russia: a report to the Trilateral Commission...P.11.

167


, , . , « » ( ) , « »
607

.



,



. , « "", "" . , , »
608

. , »
609

, « - . ,
610

. ,
611

. ,

607 608 609 610 611

. ...C.179. . ...C.155. Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.135. Ibid; . ...C.115. Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.135.

168



612

.

1990- ., - , . , . , « , »
613

.

1992 . , , , , « » ,
614

.

, . ,
615

, . ,

, ­
616

.

. ,
612 613 614 615 616

Ibid...P.130; Kubicek P. Russian foreign policy and the West...P.563. . ...C.366. ; Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.113. Davisha K.,Parrott B. Russia and the new states of Eurasia : The politics of upheaval...P.191. Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.137.

169







617











,
618

, (, , «» ) . , , « »
619

.









,
620



,
621

, «»

.

, ,
622

.

, , « , , ..., »
623

.

617 618

Ibid; Goltz Th. Letter from Eurasia: The hidden Russia hand...P.104. Pipes R. Is Russia still an enemy?...P.73. 619 Aron L. The foreign policy doctrine of postcommunist Russia...P.36; Rivera D.W. Engagement, containment and the international politics of Eurasia ...P.94; Kubicek P. Russian foreign policy and the West...P.563; Malcolm N., Pravda A., Allison R., Light M. Internal Factors in Russian foreign policy ...P.133. 620 Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.137. 621 Ibid...P.138; Goltz Th. Letter from Eurasia: The hidden Russia hand...P.105-107. 622 Rivera D.W. Engagement, containment and the international politics of Eurasia ...P.94-95; Pipes R. Is Russia still an enemy?...P.73. 623 . ...C.156.

170


, ,
624

.

, , . , « », , , ( ),
625

.

, , . , «»
626

.



,
627

.

, , .
628

.
629

« » .

Goltz Th. Letter from Eurasia: The hidden Russia hand...P.109. Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.136. 626 Ibid...P.140. 627 Ibid; Pipes R. Is Russia still an enemy?...P.73; Kubicek P. Russian foreign policy and the West...P.563; Blank S. Energy and security in the Transcaucasia P.9. 628 Lynch D. Separatist States and Post-Soviet Conflicts...P.845; Blank S. Energy and security in the Transcaucasia P.9. 629 Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.139.
625

624

171


- , , - ,
630

.

- , 1990- . . , 1992 . . . « »
631

. , , «
632

... »

.
633

, « » . , : « (. ­ ..) , , »
635 634

.

, , .

630 631

Fairbanks Ch., Nelson C.R., Starr Fr., Weisbrode K. Strategic Assessment of Central Eurasia...P.66. Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.129. 632 Ibid...P.111. 633 Blank S. Energy and security in the Transcaucasia P.8; Allison R. Military factors in foreign policy...P.267; Goltz Th. Letter from Eurasia: The hidden Russia hand...P.110. 634 Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.129. 635 Kubicek P. Russian foreign policy and the West...P.563; Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.111.

172


, 1993 .
636

. 1997 .
637

, .
639 638

. ,

. . « » 1990- . , . , ,
640

.

«»,
641

. , , ,

, 90- . XX , , , , , , ,
642

. ,

, 1998 . « , »
643

.

636

Kubicek P. Russian foreign policy and the West...P.563; Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.131. 637 Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.131. 638 Ibid...P.118. 639 Blank S. Energy and security in the Transcaucasia P.11-12. 640 Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.118-119; Malcolm N., Pravda A., Allison R., Light M. Internal Factors in Russian foreign policy ...P.144; Cornell Sv., Starr Fr. The Caucasus. A Challenge for Europe. CACI & SRSP Silk Road Paper. Uppsala & Washington. 2006. P.53. 641 Cornell Sv., Starr Fr. The Caucasus. A Challenge for Europe...P.54. 642 Blank S. Energy and security in the Transcaucasia P.1-2. 643 Cornell Sv., Starr Fr. The Caucasus. A Challenge for Europe...P.54.

173




-





- . , . «, , , , , . , . »
644

.

, , , ,
645

.



, , « » « », -
646

.

, , .. , « , , , , ,

Engaging Russia: a report to the Trilateral Commission...P.12; Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.129. 645 Rivera D.W. Engagement, containment and the international politics of Eurasia ...P.94; Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.129; Goltz Th. Letter from Eurasia: The hidden Russia hand...P.98-104; Malcolm N., Pravda A., Allison R., Light M. Internal Factors in Russian foreign policy...P.267. 646 Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.129; Goltz Th. Letter from Eurasia: The hidden Russia hand...P.98-104.

644

174


»

647

.
648



.

- 1990- ., , . « »
649

. , . , , « »
650

.

, « , »
651

.



,













,

:

« . , , »
652

.



- . .
653

. 1997 .

,

647 648

Engaging Russia: a report to the Trilateral Commission...P.12. Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.132. 649 Fairbanks Ch., Nelson C.R., Starr Fr., Weisbrode K. Strategic Assessment of Central Eurasia...P.58. 650 Pipes R. Is Russia still an enemy?...P.72. 651 Fairbanks Ch., Nelson C.R., Starr Fr., Weisbrode K. Strategic Assessment of Central Eurasia...P.59. 652 Goltz Th. Letter from Eurasia: The hidden Russia hand...P.96. 653 Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.130; . ....371.

175


, -
654

.



,




655

,

,

1990- .
656

« » 1992-1999 ., .

, ( ), . , . , , . , . , , , , . - - . , . . , . .,
654 655

Ibid. Kubicek P. Russian foreign policy and the West...P.563; Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.130. 656 Davisha K.,Parrott B. Russia and the new states of Eurasia : The politics of upheaval...P.190.

176


, . . , , . , ,

177


§2. 2000-2008 . XXI ,

. , ,

, , , ,

( , , ): « , , , ,
657

, »

.

, ,
658



«

»

.

, , 90- . XX ,
659

.

657 658

. C.35-36. Kemp G., Saunders P. America, Russia and The Greater Middle East. Challenges and Opportunities. The Nixon Center. Washington,DC.2003.P.25. 659 Mankoff Je. The Big Caucasus: Between fragmentation and integration. CSIS.2012.P.8.

178


, , . , , « » XIX , XXI . : XIX , . « ». , ,
660

.

, , « . ... « », , »
661

.



2000-2008 . , , , . . -,
660

Cornell E. S. Starr Fr. The Caucasus. A Challenge for Europe...P.49-51,58; Cornell S. Military end economic security perspectives....P.12 .: Lynch D. A regional insecurity dynamic...P.17. 661 Cornell S.E., Starr Fr. The Caucasus. A Challenge for Europe...P.50-51; Cornell S.E. Georgia after the Rose Revolution...P.16; Bugajski Ja. Georgian lessons: conflicting Russian and Western interests ...P. 45.

179


­ . - ( ) , . « , , , , . , , »
662

.

-, 11 2001 . . «... 11 ( ) »
663

.

«»
664

,

« »
665

« » .

662

. C.29 Cornell S. Military end economic security perspectives//Strategic security dilemmas in the Caucasus and Central Asis.NBR.V.14.3. October 2003.P.7; . : Cornell S.E., Starr Fr. The Caucasus. A Challenge for Europe...P.20; German T.C. Corridor of power: the Caucasus and energy security// Caucasian review of international affairs. V.2.2008. P.64-72; Baran Z. Lithuanian energy security...P.7. 663 Ibid .30; Cornell S. Military end economic security perspectives...P.7. 664 Mankoff Je. The Big Caucasus...P.17. 665 Mankoff J. The Big Caucasus...P.17.

180


, , . ­ - .
666

-





,







, - . 2003 . , , , « », 2004 .
667

, , .



- , 2000-2008 . . ., , ., , .

, , , « »

666

Cornell E.S. Georgia after the Rose Revolution: Geopolitical Predicament and Implications for U.S. Policy. Carlisle, PA: U.S. Army War College, 2007. P.4-16.; Cornell E. S. Starr Fr. The Caucasus. A Challenge for Europe...P.11-25.;Shaffer Br. U.S.Policy// The South Caucasus: a challenge for the Europe. P.53-63; Lynch D. The EU:Towards a Strategy// The South Caucasus: a challenge for the Europe. P.171-197; Nixey J. The South Caucasus; drama on three stages// America and a Changed World: A Question of Leadership. Ed. by R.Niblett. Wiley-Blackwell. 2010. P.125-142. 667 Cornell S.E., Starr Fr. The Caucasus. A Challenge for Europe...P.14; Asmus R.,Jackson B. The Black sea and the frontiers of freedom//Policy Review. 125. June/Jule 2004. P.17-26.

181


., , , «» . , , . , 2000 . , 2001 . ,
668

,







2002 . , ,
669

.

, «» - , ,
670

.

, . , , , «
671









» . , . . , ,
668 669

672

. ,

Cornell E.S. Georgia after the Rose Revolution...P.26-29. . : . The Washington Post. 25 2003. 670 Cornell E. S. Starr Fr. The Caucasus. A Challenge for Europe...P.55-58; . ..., . . In the national interest. 21 2003. http://www.inosmi.ru/untitled/20031207/201605.html. 671 Wallander A.C. Russian Foreign Policy: The Implications of Pragmatism for U.S. Policy. Testimony before Europe Subcommittee of the House Committee on International Relations. CSIS.2002. 672 Cornell E. S. Starr Fr. The Caucasus. A Challenge for Europe...P.58.

182


, , , , « » , , « , »
673

.

, , , . , , , . , , «» status quo. «» , , . , «, , ...»
674

. , ,

, , »
675

«

.

, , , .
673 674 675

German T. Abkhazia and South Ossetia: Collision of Georgian and Russian interests. IFRI. 2006. P.10. . ... Ibid..., . : Hill F., Taspinar Om. Russia and Turkey in the Caucasus...P.20.

183




676

.



, 2003 . , 2004 . , , , . , , , Foreign Affairs « - . , , »
677

.

« » , « , , », ,
678

.

, , , , , , «

676

German T. Abkhazia and South Ossetia ...P.11; Cornell E.S. Georgia after the Rose Revolution...P.13. 2002 2004 . «Train and Equip» 64 . . 677 King Charles A rose among thorns: Georgia Makes Good// Foreign Affairs. V.83. 2. March-April 2004.http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/59706/charles-king/a-rose-among-thorns-georgia-makes-good. 678 Asmus R.D., Holbrooke R.C. Re-inventing NANO...P.8; Phillips D. Restoring Georgia`s Sovereignity in Abkhazia...P.6.

184


»

679

. ,



. , , , . - , . « - » -
680

.

. ,

. « » . , 1991 ., ,
681

. . ,

, , ,
679

. . The Washington times. 23 2004. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20041123/214903.html. 680 . 681 Cohen A. Springtime is for war? The Heritage Foundation. http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2006/03/springtime-is-for-war; Sherr J. Culpabilities and consequences. Chatham House.2008.P.2; Charap S., Welt C. A more proactive U.S.approach to the Georgia conflicts.Center for American progress.P.7; . Postimperium: ....140.

185


, -
682

. ,

2017 .,
683











. , ,

,
684

. ,

, « , »
685

, ­ «
686

» . , « , , »
687

.



2004 . , , «...

682

. Postimperium: ....140; . . The Los Angeles Times. 7 2004. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20040407/208885.html. 683 Phillips D. Restoring Georgia`s Sovereignity in Abkhazia...P.6; Allison R. Russia resurgent? Moscow's campaign...P.1162. 684 Cornell S.E., Starr Fr. The Caucasus. A Challenge for Europe...P.55; . . The International Herald Tribune. 28 2008. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20080328/240508.html; Bugajski Ja. Georgian lessons: conflicting Russian and Western interests ...P. 46; Phillips D. Restoring Georgia`s Sovereignity in Abkhazia...P.6. 685 . ... 686 . Postimperium: ....146. 687 Cornell S.E. Georgia after the Rose Revolution...P.27.

186


»

688

. ,



, , , - . , « , , . »
689

.

« », , . ,
690

,
691


693

.
692

»
694

.

, « . 2008 .

,
695

.

«»
688 689

. Postimperium: ....140. Charap S., Welt C. A more proactive U.S.approach to the Georgia...P.7. 690 Cornell S.E., Starr Fr. The Caucasus. A Challenge for Europe...P.32; Allison R. Russia resurgent? Moscow's campaign...P.1147; Cornell S.E. Georgia after the Rose Revolution...P.27. 691 Allison R. Russia resurgent? Moscow's campaign...P.1147; Cornell S.E. Georgia after the Rose Revolution...P.27. 692 Phillips D. Restoring Georgia`s Sovereignity in Abkhazia...P.21. 693 Cohen A. Springtime is for war?... 694 Cornell S.E. Georgia after the Rose Revolution...P.27; Asmus R., Cornell Sv., Herrberg A., Popescu N. Internationalizing The Georgia-Abkhazia conflict...P.2. 695 Phillips D. Restoring Georgia`s Sovereignity in Abkhazia...P.9.

187


. 2008 .
697 696

.

, , «» . , ,

, , , , . , , , -,
698



. , , . - 20042008 . « ». , , ,
696

Allison R. Russia resurgent? Moscow's campaign...P.1147; . . ­ . The Financial Times. 3 2008. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20080603/241722.html; Kramer M. Russian policy towards the Commonwealth of Independent States...P.7. 697 Cohen Ar. Springtime is for war?... 698 Asmus R., Cornell Sv., Herrberg A., Popescu N. Internationalizing The Georgia-Abkhazia conflict...P.1-2; Phillips D. Restoring Georgia`s Sovereignity in Abkhazia...P.9 .

188


,
699

.




700







, . - , . , 2007 .
701

.
702



.

, . , , « « » , . , »
703

.
704

, « -» » . , . , .
Cornell S.E., Starr Fr. The Caucasus. A Challenge for Europe...P.47; Allison R. Russia resurgent? Moscow's campaign...P.1147; Cornell S.E. Georgia after the Rose Revolution...P.28; . Postimperium: ....141. 700 . Postimperium: ....141; ; Phillips D. Restoring Georgia`s Sovereignity in Abkhazia...P.10 Kramer M. Russian policy towards the Commonwealth of Independent States...P.7 701 Cohen A. Springtime is for war?... 702 Cornell S.E. Georgia after the Rose Revolution...P.1; Jackson B.P. NATO Expansion and modern Europe...P.24; Bugajski Ja. Georgian lessons: conflicting Russian and Western interests ...P. 46; 2006; Nixey J. The South Caucasus; drama on three stages...P.125; Mankoff J.The United States and Central Asia...P.18; Charap S,,Troitskiy M. Eurasian abrasions: Habits, not interests... 703 Simes D. Losing Russia... http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/63008/dimitri-k-simes/losing-russia 704 Simes D. Losing Russia...; Nixey J. The South Caucasus; drama on three stages...P.125; Phillips D. Restoring Georgia`s Sovereignity in Abkhazia...P.11; Mitcell L., Cooley A. After the August war: a new strategy for U.S. engagement with Georgia. The Harriman Review. V.17. 3-4. Harriman Institute. NY. 2010. P.43-46.
699

189






,





,

, , , : « . « »: , .... , , , . , ...»
705

. , « »



- 2008 , « ».
706

,

, , , . , . , « » , . , , : «, ,
705 706

. Postimperium: ....142; Engaging with Russia : the next phase...P.114. ., . . The Washington Times. 28 2008. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20080428/241046.html; Baran Z. Testimony // Oil, Oligarchs, and Opportunity...

190


. »
707

.

2008 . , « » ,
708

, 2000-2008 . , , - , - «». , . , , , , , ,
709

.

, , ,
710

.

­ , ,
707 708 709 710

. . ... Nixey J. The South Caucasus; drama on three stages...P.125. Cornell E.S. Georgia after the Rose Revolution...P.27. Ibid.

191


, , ,
711



,

,





.

2001 .
712

, «

2003 . », « 2004 .»
713

.

, , « » 2002 » »
716 714

.

- ,
715

. ,

« . , , « », « : »
717

. 2000-2008

. , ,
711

Nixey Ja. The Long Goodbye: Waning Russian Influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. The Chatham House. 2012. P.6. 712 Lynch D. A regional insecurity dynamic...P.18. 713 . //// : « ». .373. . Nixey Ja. The Long Goodbye: Waning Russian Influence P.6. 714 Lynch D. A regional insecurity dynamic...P.18. 715 Ibid. 716 . ....373. 717 . Postimperium: ....172.

192


«, , »
718

. ,
719

,
720

.



« »



, , , « » -- -
721

.

- XXI . « » , , « .... « » »
722

.

, , ,
723

. , « .

...- »
718 719 720 721 722 723 724

724

Nixey J. The long goodbye...P.6. Ibid. Nixey J. The South Caucasus; drama on three stages...P.125. . Postimperium: ....172; Wood A. Russia's business diplomacy...P.5. Bugajski Ja. Georgian lessons: conflicting Russian and Western interests ...P. 49. Kemp G., Saunders P. America, Russia and The Greater Middle East...P.31. Mankoff Je. The Big Caucasus...P.10.

193


, 2000-2008 .
725

.

, , , , , ,
726

.

, « , . , »
727

.

, « , », , , ( )
728

. , . 2000- . ,
730

2006-2007 . «»
729



, , , 2008 .

Lynch D. A regional insecurity dynamic...P.17; . ....366. Fairbanks Ch., Nelson C.R., Starr Fr., Weisbrode K. Strategic Assessment of Central Eurasia. ..P.58-59; Mankoff Je. The Big Caucasus...P.10; Wood A. Russia's business diplomacy...P.5. 727 . ....372 . .:Nixey Ja. The Long Goodbye: Waning Russian Influence P.5. 728 Nixey J. The long goodbye...P.2,5-6; Nixey J. The South Caucasus; drama on three stages...P.125-134. 729 Kramer M. Russian policy towards the Commonwealth of Independent States...P.11. 730 Cornell S.E., Starr Fr. The Caucasus. A Challenge for Europe...P.47.
726

725

194


», , ,
731

.

, 20002008 .. , , , . 2000-2008 . , , « ». - , . , , , . , , 2005-2008 . . , , , -,
731

Nixey J. The long goodbye...P.5.

195
















. , , , . , - .. , . , , , , , . 2008 . , , , , « » . . - 2000-2008 . , - «». . ,

196


. , . « » . , . , 2000- . , , 2000-2008 . ,

197


§3. 7 2008 .

, , ,
732

. ,

, 2008 . , , . . , 2008 . , - , , , , . , «» ,
733

. , 2008 .



«

Phillips D. Restoring Georgia`s Sovereignity in Abkhazia...P.13; Mankoff J. Russian foreign policy and the United States after Putin// Problems of Post-Communism, V. 55, . 4, July-August 2008. P.42; . ­ . The National Interest. 11 2008. http://www.inosmi.ru/inrussia/20080611/241943.html . 733 . Postimperium: ... .55-56; . ... .21; . . ­ . The Financial Times. 3 2008. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20080603/241722.htlm; Larrabee S. Ukraine and transatlantic integration...P.137; Baran Z. Testimony // Oil, Oligarchs, and Opportunity...

732

198


, »

734

.

, , « » 1992-1993 .
735

. , «

, , »
736

.

8 2008 .

. , « » , « »
737

. , ,

,

, « » ,
734

738

.

. . . Project Syndicate. 26 2008 http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20080826/243570.htlm Phillips D. Post-Conflict Georgia. The Atlantic Council. 2008. P. 1, Sherr J. Culpabilities and Consequence. Chatham House. 2008. .2. Allison R. Russia resurgent? Moscow`s campaign...P.1148. 735 Phillips D. Restoring Georgia`s Sovereignty in Abkhazia...P.9. 736 Ibid P.10. 737 Ibid... 738 . .; McFaul M. Testimony // U.S.­Russia Relations in the Aftermath of the Georgia Crisis...P.1; Sherr J. Culpabilities and consequences...P.2.

199


, , , , . , . ,
739

.

, , , , , . , , « » « , , - , »
740

. -

, , ,

: « , , , »
739

741

.

. . The Financial Times. 13 2008. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20080813/243218.html Sherr J. Culpabilities and consequences...P.2. 740 . . Time. 14 2008. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20080814/243263.htlm. 741 . . National Interest. 31 2008. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20081031/245049.htlm

200


,
742











, . « , »
743

.

, « . . . « » , »
744

.

, , ­ « ...

742

.. .. - ... 743 . . . Project Syndicate. 26 2008 http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20080826/243570.htlm. 744 . . The Washington Post. 11 2008. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20080811/243570.htlm.

201


, , »
745

.

, «» , , « « », « »,

» , , , . , «». , ,
746





« XIX » 1935 .
747

,

1931 . , « 1956 .» ,
748

« 1939 .»

,

745

. . Time. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20080814/243263.htlm. 746 . ? The Washington Times. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20080916/244033.htlm. 747 . . The Los Angeles Times. 12 http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20080812/243172.htlm. 748 . . Time. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20080814/243263.htlm.

14 2008. 16 2008. 2008. 14 2008.

202



749



750

.

, , , : - «»
751

;

- ., « »,
752

;

- ,
753

;
754

- « », . , . , , « , , , »
755

.

, -

« ,

749

. . The Washington Post. 11 2008. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20080811/243126.html. 750 King Ch. The five-day war...P.3. 751 Allison R. Russia resurgent? Moscow`s campaign...P.1165. 752 Bugajski Ja. Georgian lessons: conflicting Russian and Western interests ...P. 2, Allison R. Russia resurgent? Moscow`s campaign...P.1163; McFaul M. Testimony // U.S.­Russia Relations in the Aftermath of the Georgia Crisis...P.1. 753 Kuchins A., Weitz R. Russia's place in an unsettled order--calculations in the Kremlin. The Stanley Foundation. 2008. P.12; Kramer M. Russian policy towards the Commonwealth of Independent States...P.8. 754 Allison R. Russia resurgent? Moscow`s campaign...P.1170. 755 Mankoff Je. The Big Caucasus... .8.

203


, , »
756

.

, , . , . « ,

. , , »
757

.

. : - , « - ...»; - , «» , ; - , ,
758

.

756 757

Sestanovich S. What has Moscow done... . . The Washington Post. 15 2008. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20080815/243282.htlm. 758 Bugajski Ja. Georgian lessons: conflicting Russian and Western interests ...P. 47.

204


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, « »
759

.



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760

.



, « »

, , «»
761

.
762

« » , . « , »
759 760

Allison R. Russia resurgent? Moscow`s campaign...P.1162-1163. . Postimperium: ... .60. 761 . . The Wall Street Journal. 14 2008. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20081014/244633.htlm; McFaul M. Testimony // U.S.­Russia Relations in the Aftermath of the Georgia Crisis...P.1. 762 . . . 14 2008. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20081014/244624.htlm

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763

.
764

« ­ » ,
765

« » ,

.



- «» , . , 2008 ., , , . , . , , , « » , , ,
766





« » . . , , : « ,
763 764 765 766

Phillips D. Post-Conflict Georgia. The Atlantic Council. 2008. P. 3. King Ch. The five-day war//Foreign Affairs. 6. November-December,2008. P.6. Allison R. Russia resurgent? Moscow`s campaign...P.1159. Bugajski Ja. Georgian lessons: conflicting Russian and Western interests ...P. 3.

206


» ,
768

767

.

« » , . , , , « ... ( ­ ..) , ,
769







» «

. ,
770



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. ,

« ... » ,
771

. -

, , , . , , « , , , - ».
767

772

. . The Los Angeles Times. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20080812/243172.htlm; . ? The Washington Post. 15 2008. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20080815/243274.html. 768 . . The Wall Street Journal. 10 2008. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/200809109/243916.htlm; Larrabee S. Ukraine and transatlantic integration...P.138. 769 . . The Wall Street Journal. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/200809109/243916.htlm. 770 Bugajski Ja. Georgian lessons: conflicting Russian and Western interests ...P. 3. 771 McFaul M. Testimony // U.S.­Russia Relations in the Aftermath of the Georgia Crisis...P.1. 772 . . National Interest. 31 2008. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20081031/245049.htlm

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, , , , ­ ,
773

.

, , .
774







« » « » . , « ..., ..., ­ ...»
775

. ,

: «... - 2008 ., , ­ »
776

.

,

, .. ,

. . National Interest. 31 2008. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20081031/245049.htlm; . Postimperium: ... .60; Whither Georgia: The Impact of Russian Actions... .28; King Ch. The five-day war...P.7. 774 Whither Georgia: The Impact of Russian Actions... .2; . ....23; McFaul M. Testimony // U.S.­Russia Relations in the Aftermath of the Georgia Crisis...P.1; Kuchins A., Weitz R. Russia's place in an unsettled order--calculations in the Kremlin. The Stanley Foundation. 2008. P.4-5. 775 Larrabee S. Ukraine and transatlantic integration...P.138. 776 Kramer M. Russian policy towards the Commonwealth of Independent States...P.16.

773

208


2008 . «» , « » « » .
777

.

: « »
778

. , « »
779

. , , .



, , , ,
780

.

, ,
781

.

,
Kuchins A., Weitz R. Russia's place in an unsettled order--calculations in the Kremlin. The Stanley Foundation. 2008. P.5. 778 Rumer R.,Stent A.Russia and the West//Survival.V.51.2.April-May 2009.P.94. 779 Bugajski Ja. Russian pragmatic reimperialisation....P.7. 780 King Ch. The five-day war... P.3; Kuchins A. Testimony // Prospects for Engagement With Russia...P.1; Rumer R.,Stent A.Russia and the West//Survival.V.51.2.April-May 2009.P.91-104; . . ...; Sestanovich S. What has Moscow done...; ., . . The International Herald Tribune. 14 2008. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20081014/244624.html. 781 ., . . The International Herald Tribune. 1 2008. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20081001/244356.html; Graham T. U.S. policy options for managing relations with Russia in the former soviet space//Enduring rivalry...P.51.
777

209




782

. , «-

, , »
783

.

, 90- . XX « ». , - « »
784

.

- . , , « ­ ­ »
785

. , ,
786

« , « » . , , ,
787

. ,
788

.

.

, ,
782

Larrabee S. Ukraine and transatlantic integration...P.139; Jackson B. A turning point for European east//Policy Review.160 (April-May2010). . http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/article/5292. 783 Jackson B. A turning point for European east... 784 Phillips D. Post-Conflict Georgia...; Mankoff Je. The Big Caucasus...P.26-31; Bugajski Ja. Georgian lessons: conflicting Russian and Western interests ...P.115-119; MacFarlaine N. How to get a Georgia-Russia dialogue? Chatham House.2010; Nixey J. The South Caucasus: drama...P.134-140; . . ... 785 . ....24. 786 King Ch. The five-day war... .3. 787 Phillips D. Post-Conflict Georgia. The Atlantic Council. 2008. P.17-18. 788 Ibid P. 2.

210


: « »
789

.

: « , , »
790

.

, , .
791

. ,

« » ( ), , 2008 .,
792

.

( ) ,
793









.

, , ,
789 790

794

. ,

Ibid P.3. King Ch. The five-day war....7. 791 Phillips D. Post-Conflict Georgia. The Atlantic Council. 2008. P.3. 792 Ibid... 793 King Ch. The five-day war....7. 794 Bugajski Ja. Georgian lessons: conflicting Russian and Western interests ...P. 45; Larrabee S. Ukraine and transatlantic integration...P.138.

211


, ( , )
795

, «
796

, »

.

, , « » - ,
797





.

, - , , . : « » »
799

.

798

,











, « , , 8 2008 . . , « » «» . ,
795 796

Sestanovich S. What has Moscow done... Kramer M. Russian policy towards the Commonwealth of Independent States...P.13. 797 King Ch. The five-day war.....3; Smith C.K. Maaging the Challrnge of Russian Energy Policy...P.6. 798 Bugajski Ja. Georgian lessons: conflicting Russian and Western interests ...P. 5; Kuchins A., Weitz R. Russia's place in an unsettled order... P.13. 799 . ....24.

212


, , , , . - . «» , . , « » . . , , , . , , 2008 . , . , , ,
213


. , , . ., , .. , , , . , , .

214


IV. 1992-2008 .
§1. 1992-1999 . - () 1990- . , . , , , . , , « ( ,

- ), - »
800

.

, , , , . , , « , . , , , »
800 801

801

.

. . ...C.68. Davisha K.,Parrott B. Russia and the new states of Eurasia : The politics of upheaval...P.49.

215


, (, , , ) . , , «- »
802

.

. , , , ( , ) , ,
803

.

, , « », «, , , «» »
804

.

,

. , , ,
805

« , - » . .

802 803

. ...C.116. ; Engaging Russia: a report to the Trilateral Commission...P.13. 804 Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.103. 805 . . ...C.71; Sherr J. Escalation of the Tajikistan Conflict. IBRU Boundary and Security Bulletin January. 1994. P.59.

216


,














807


806



«



»

. . ,


808

. , 1990- . ,
809

.

, , , . 1990- . . , , . , « . , , ,
806 807

. . ...C.74-75. Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.106. 808 Brzezinski Zb. The premature partnership...P.76; . . ...C.74. 809 Blank S. Russias's back in Central Asia...P.58;Fairbanks Ch., Nelson C.R., Starr Fr., Weisbrode K. Strategic Assessment of Central Eurasia...P.58; . / : , ....104.

217


-- , -- »

810

.

, , , . « 1993 . , , 1998 ., ,
811





, ­ » . , , ,
812

. ,

: « , , »
813

. ,

, ,

. , ,
810 811 812 813



. . ...C.25. . ....104. . . : ....42. . ....104.

218


« »
814

. ,

,

, 1995 . . , . , 1992 . , , « -
815

», . 1993 ., , , 2000 .
816

.

- 1990- . , « »,
817

.

, ,
818

.











, ,

. // : , ....34. 815 Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.152; . . : ....63. 816 ....159. 817 ....63,265. 818 Blank S. Russias's back in Central Asia...P.58; . ....104.

814

219


,
820

819

. ,



«



, » . , , 1990- ., , , « » , . - . , , » . , »
825 823 822 821



. «








824





, ,

. «


826

, , .

819

Blank S. Russias's back in Central Asia...P.55-57; Kubicek P. Russian foreign policy and the West...P.563; . . ...C.74-75. 820 . ...C.171-172. 821 . . : ....34. 822 Davisha K.,Parrott B. Russia and the new states of Eurasia : The politics of upheaval...P.218; Fairbanks Ch., Nelson C.R., Starr Fr., Weisbrode K. Strategic Assessment of Central Eurasia...P.37. 823 Malcolm N., Pravda A., Allison R., Light M. Internal Factors in Russian foreign policy ...P.57; Fairbanks Ch., Nelson C.R., Starr Fr., Weisbrode K. Strategic Assessment of Central Eurasia...P.37. 824 . . ...C.73. 825 ....17. 826 Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.136.

220


, , . : 201- , , -
827

. ,

1992-1997 . . « 201- ( 15 ), ...»
828

.

: « »
829

. ,


830



. 1990- ., ,

- , . , «»

827 828

Sherr J. Escalation of the Tajikistan Conflict...P. 57 ­ 61. Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.145; Malcolm N., Pravda A., Allison R., Light M. Internal Factors in Russian foreign policy ...P.9. 829 . ...C.172; Pipes R. Is Russia still an enemy?...P.72; : Sherr J. Escalation of the Tajikistan Conflict...P. 57 ­ 61. 830 Aron L. The foreign policy doctrine of postcommunist Russia and its domestic context...P.41; Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.145-146.

221






831

.



,









,

« ( ) , ,
832





«»

.







, . , , , ,
833

. , , ,

, - , , , 1997 ., ,
835 834

.

. - , . , , «

Olcott M.B. International gas trade in Central Asia: Turkmenistan, Iran, Russia and Afghanistan. James A.Baker III Institute for public policy. Rice University. Stanford University. Working Paper. 28. Stanford University, CA. 2004.P.24; . . ...C.48; Blank S. Russias's back in Central Asia...P.58; Fairbanks Ch., Nelson C.R., Starr Fr., Weisbrode K. Strategic Assessment of Central Eurasia...P.47. 832 . . ...C.48. 833 Olcott M.B. Central Asia's catapult to independence//Foreign Affairs. V.71 3 Summer,1992. P.116. 834 Olcott M.B. International gas trade in Central Asia...P.25; Fairbanks Ch., Nelson C.R., Starr Fr., Weisbrode K. Strategic Assessment of Central Eurasia...P.47. 835 Olcott M.B. International gas trade in Central Asia...P.11-22.

831

222


»

836

,

1992 . . , ,
837

.

« », , ,
838



. 1990-

.
839

.

- , « «»
840

,

, . , , « » , « »
841

.

, : « ­ ,

836 837

Davisha K.,Parrott B. Russia and the new states of Eurasia : The politics of upheaval...P.220. Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.114. 838 Davisha K.,Parrott B. Russia and the new states of Eurasia : The politics of upheaval...P.220. 839 Olcott M.B. Central Asia's catapult to independence...P.116; . . ...C.72. 840 . ...C.174. 841 ....156-157.

223


»
842

.

- 1990- , , . « », « , »
843

. « »
844







.
845

. , , 1990- . , . , , , , , , .
842 843

Fairbanks Ch., Nelson C.R., Starr Fr., Weisbrode K. Strategic Assessment of Central Eurasia...P.50. Ibid...P.52. 844 Starr Fr. Making Eurasia stable// Foreign affairs. Vol.75.1. January-February 1996. P.87. 845 Fairbanks Ch., Nelson C.R., Starr Fr., Weisbrode K. Strategic Assessment of Central Eurasia...P.52; Menon R. After empire: Russia and the southern «Near Abroad»...P.106.

224


, 1992-1999 .,

, , «». . . , 1990- ., , , . , . , . , .. - , . , . 1990- ., , , .

225


§2. 2000-2008 . 2000-2008 ., , 90- . XX ., . , , , « ( ­ ..) , ... , ­ , , , »
846

. ,

- , , ,
847

.


848

.

, « , ,
Graham T. Russia's Decline and Uncertain Recovery. P.78. . Postimperium: ....179-180. 848 Nixey J. The long goodbye...P.12; . () . The Wall Street Journal. 7 2005. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20051007/222829.html; . ­ . The Wall Street Journal. 2 2005. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20051202/224051.html; Statfor. : . 15 2005. http://www.inosmi.ru/inrussia/20051115/223677.html; Cohen A. Europe's Strategic Dependence on Russian Energy. The Heritage Foundation. 2007. http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2007/11/europes-strategicdependence-on-russian-energy.
847 846

226


, . . «», ...»
849

. ,

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850



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.

, , , . , « « », . » ,
851

. ,
852





,


853

. ,

.

849

Olcott M. Russia, Central Asia and the Caspian: How important is the Energy and Security Trade-off. James A.Baker Institute for Public Policy. The Institute for Energy Economics. P.14. 850 . // : , . . .. .,2004. .5. Graham T. Russia's Decline and Uncertain Recovery P.78. 851 Cohen A. Competition over Eurasia: Are the U.S. and Russia... 852 . : . . . ; . . ; , 2005. .255-259; Collins A.C., Wohlforth W.C. Central Asia: Defying "Great Game" Expectations //Strategic Asia 2003­04: Fragility and Crisis. The National Bureau of Asian Research.2004. P.304-307. 853 Wood A. Russia's business diplomacy...P.4; Nixey J. The long goodbye...P.13; Olcott M. Russai, Central Asia and the Caspian: how important is the energy end security...P.8; Mankoff J.The United States and Central Asia...P.21-24; Legvold R. Russia's strategic vision and the role of energy//Russian energy policy and strategy. NBR.V.18.N.2.July 2008. P.18-19.

227


, , 11 2001 . , , ,
854

. ,

, - , « »
855

.



, ,
856

.

, , , ­ ,
858 857

.

« , ( ­ ..)» . : «... ,

,
854

. ..5-9,19-20; Cooley Al. Principles in the pipeline: managing transatlantic values and interests in Central Asia //International Affairs. V.84. 6.2008. P.1173-1188. 855 . . The Wall Street Journal. 8 2005. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20050708/220836.html. 856 . ? UPI. 19 2005. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20050719/221038.html. 857 Cohen A. NATO's Frontiers: Eurasia, the Mediterranean, and the Greater Middle East. The Heritage Foundation.2006. http://www.heritage.org/research/lecture/natos-frontiers-eurasia-the-mediterranean-and-thegreater-middle-east. 858 Cohen A. Competition over Eurasia: Are the U.S. and Russia on a CollisionCourse? The Heritage Foundation.2005 http://www.heritage.org/research/lecture/competition-over-eurasia-are-the-us-and-russia-on-acollision-course; Roberts S.R. Kazakhsnan and the United States: twenty years of ambiguous partnership. Atlantic Council.2012; Hardin K. Kazakhstan's energy sector since independence: two decades of growth and challenge ahead? Atlantic Council.2012; Bohr A. Central Asia: responding to the multi-vectoring game...P.113; . ­ ...

228


»

859

. ,

, . , - « »
860

.



, , 1990- . , , . , «-» () «» (), , , .
861

, « , » . . , , « »
862

. ,

- ,
863

.

Ibid...P.1173. . . The Wall Street Journal. 26 2005. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20050426/219164.html; Cohen A. NATO's Frontiers: Eurasia, the Mediterranean... 861 . ...5 . Daly J.C.K., Meppen K.H., Socor V., Starr F. Anatomy of a crisis: U.S.-Uzbekistan relations,2001-2005. Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program. Washington.2006. 862 Ibid....7. 863 Allison R. Regionalism, regional structures and security management in Central Asia// International Affairs. V.80. 3.2004. P.468; Mankoff J.The United States and Central Asia after 2014.CSIS.2013.P.2.
860

859

229


, . « », , . , « »
864

. ,

: - , , . « » , , . . « ». « 11 , , , » ,
865

. , ­

, , .
864

Olcott M. Strategic concerns in Central Asia//Disarmament Forum,Central Asia at the Crossroads. UNDIR.2007.4.P.6. 865 . ...18.

230


, , , ,
866



.

. , «, , , , , , »
867

.

- , , (, ) . , , , . . , , ( , , ), (, )
866 867

868

. (),

. 1992 ,

Allison R. Strategic reassertion in Russia's Central Asia Policy// International Affairs. V.80. 2.2004. P.279. Graham T. Russia's Decline and Uncertain Recovery. P.66. 868 Kemp G., Saunders P. America, Russia and The Greater Middle East...P.34; Bohr A. Regionalism in Central Asia: new geopolitics, old regional borders // International Affairs.V. 80.3.2004.P.490.

231


. , , , , 2002 . , , «» , , , , , - .
869

. ,
870

, « » . , , « -»,
871







.

, , , , . , «
872



».
869 870

, , ­ , «»

Allison R. Regionalism, regional structures and security management in Central Asia...P.470. Kramer M. Russian policy towards the Commonwealth of Independent States...P.13. 871 Allison R. Strategic reassertion in Russia's Central Asia Policy ...P.286. . : Collins A.C., Wohlforth W.C. Central Asia: Defying "Great Game" Expectations...P.302. 872 Allison R. Strategic reassertion in Russia's Central Asia Policy ...P.286.

232


. 2005 . « »
873

,



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874

. ,



, , «-, ,
875

.



.



»

,





(), , , , , « »
876

.

, , , . , , , , , «,
873

. : Daly J. C. K., Meppen H.K., Socor V., Starr F.Anatomy of a Crisis. U.S.Uzbekistan Relations,2001-2005. Johns Hopkins University-SAIS. Washington, D.C. 2006; Luong P.J., Wienthal E. New Friends,New Fears in Central Asia//Foreign Affairs. V.81..2. March-April2003.P.61-70. 874 Allison R. Strategic reassertion in Russia's Central Asia Policy...P.286; Kemp G., Saunders P. America, Russia and The Greater Middle East...P.34; Allison R. Regionalism, regional structures and security management in Central Asia...P.471. 875 Ibid P.471-472. 876 . ...256. . : Allison R. Regionalism, regional structures and security management in Central Asia...P.478.

233


, »
877

. , (



, ), , , ­ , . , , 2005 .
878

.

, ­ « . , »
879

.

. , - « ..., , »
877

880

.

. ...257; Cornell S. Military end economic security perspectives...P.11. 878 . ?; . .; 2005 2007; . ....93. 879 . ... 880 . ...79; Olcott M. Russia, Central Asia and the Caspian...P.14.

234


, , , . , -
881

,

, , , , «... (, , , ­ ..) , , »
882

.



, , - , ,
883

.

, , . (2000-2004 .), , , - . , , , «»

881 882 883

. ...250. Ibid....241. . : Wood A. Russia's business diplomacy...P.4; Nixey J. The long goodbye...P.14 Ibid ....247.

235


. : , . . . , - , , , - , . ,
884

.,
885

, . ., , ,
886

. . , «»

- «»

«»
884 885

. ....25. . . .123. . .: . . . .2003. .264. 886 Ibid....248,250.

236


,

887

, 2002 . 15 «
888



»

.,

- . 2002 . «» «» «»
889

.

, , . , « » ( )
891 890





, «» 2003 . . , «» «» , «» 2002
892

. «»

.

, - , 1990- ., . 2003 . «»
893

, 25 .

887

Olcott M. Russia, Central Asia and the Caspian...P.15; . . .250. 888 Allison R. Strategic reassertion in Russia's Central Asia Policy...P.290. 889 Ibid...P.291; Olcott M. Russia, Central Asia and the Caspian...P.15. 890 Allison R. Strategic reassertion in Russia's Central Asia Policy...P.291; Olcott M. International gas trade in Central Asia: Turkmenistan, Iran, Russia and Afghanistan. James A.Baker Institute for Public Policy. Energy Forum. Working Papers. 28. Stanford.2004.P.26. 891 . . .252. 892 Olcott M. Russia, Central Asia and the Caspian...P.15. 893 Allison R. Strategic reassertion in Russia's Central Asia Policy...P.291; Olcott M. International gas trade in Central Asia: Turkmenistan, Iran, Russia and Afghanistan.P.26.

237


, , 2002-2003 . - .

, : « ( . ­ ..) , »
894

.

, , 2004 . ( 2050 .),
895

.

- . 2003 . . () , . , .
896



«







» . , , , , , «

894 895 896

. . .248. Allison R. Strategic reassertion in Russia's Central Asia Policy...P.288-289. Ibid...P.287.

238


»

897

.

, -
898

. ,

, , « , « »
899

.

2003 . - -
900



.
901

- 201- . , .,
902

.

. - , , 2004-2008 . , «
897 898 899 900 901 902

Ibid...P.287. Cornell S. Military end economic security perspectives...P.11. . . .248. Allison R. Strategic reassertion in Russia's Central Asia Policy...P. 289. . . .244-245. Allison R. Strategic reassertion in Russia's Central Asia Policy...P. 287.

239


» , 2005 .
903

»
904

, « . «» , , , « »
905

.
906

. , 90- . XX , , 2004-2005 . . - , . , 2005 . . , , ,
907

.

, ,

« ». . ...; . ?... 905 Baran Z. Testimony// Uzbekistan: The Key to Success in Central Asia?; Bugajski Ja. Georgian lessons: conflicting Russian and Western interests ...P. 58. 906 Statfor. : ...; Statfor. : . 17 2005. http://www.inosmi.ru/inrussia/20051117/223731.html; Statfor. . 2 2005. http://www.inosmi.ru/inrussia/20051202/224052.html; 2007 .107,112. . , ! The Wall Street Journal. 10 2006. http://www.inosmi.ru/inrussia/20060510/227321.html 907 . . ? The Policy Review. 18 2005. http://www.inosmi.ru/inrussia/20051018/223109.html; Olcott M. Russai, Central Asia and the Caspian: how important is the energy end security...P.8; Kramer M. Russian policy towards the Commonwealth of Independent States...P.5-6.
904

903

240


,
908

. ,
909



Statfor, « 180 : » . « »
910

«-», 2005 . , , ,
911

.

. , « - - , »
912

.

. « , 2004 ., -

908

. Postimperium: ....181; . ?... 909 Statfor. : ... , . : C. Hill. F. Energy empire:oil,gas and Russian revival...P.24. 910 Mankoff J.The United States and Central Asia...P.3; Cohen A. Uzbekistan's Eviction Notice: What Next? The Heritage Foundation.2005. http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/08/uzbekistans-eviction-notice-whatnext; Daly J.C.K., Meppen K.H., Socor V., Starr F. Anatomy of a crisis: U.S.-Uzbekistan relations...P.47-55. 911 . ....169; Nixey J. The long goodbye...P.10; Kramer M. Russian policy towards the Commonwealth of Independent States...P.6; Daly J.C.K., Meppen K.H., Socor V., Starr F. Anatomy of a crisis: U.S.-Uzbekistan relations...P.58-59. 912 . , !...

241


»

913

. ,

, ­ , , ,
914

.

, 1995 .
915



,

,

. 2006 . . , , .. , «» ., « »
916

.

2005 . « » . , 2003 . 2004 .
917

,

. , , « » «
913

. : . The Washington Quarterly. 24 2005. http://www.inosmi.ru/inrussia/20050324/218310.html. 914 Hill. F. Energy empire:oil,gas and Russian revival...P.23. 915 Turkmenistan's domestic and foreign policy. Chatham House.2011.P.5 916 Nixey J. The long goodbye...P.9. 917 . . The Wall Street Journal. 30 2005. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20050330/218464.html; . . The Los Angeles Times. 24 2005. http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20051024/223251.html .

242


, , ­ »
919 918

.

, . « ... » « »
920

.
921

« »

.

, , 2004-2008 . , , , . , , 2007 . , . : « ,

, -
922





»
918 919

.

. ­ ... . Postimperium: ....178. 920 C.177; Nixey J. The long goodbye...P.10. 921 . Postimperium: ....177. 922 Cohen Ar. Europe's Strategic Dependence on Russian Energy...; Olcott M. Russai, Central Asia and the Caspian: how important is the energy end security...P.18; Kramer M. Russian policy towards the Commonwealth of Independent States...P.11.

243


, 2006 . ,
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