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(FUNDAMENTAL SOURCES OF UNPREDICTABILITY) Murray Gell-Mann Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, NM 87501 and Theory Division Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545 and Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131 Santa Fe Institute, 1996 , . , , , , . : 1) . , , , , . 2) , , . , , . (, , ; , .) , , , , . (, , . .) , , . 3) ( ) . . , ­ , . Hartle Hawking , , ­ . ., ­ ( ­ multiverse) , . , , , . "" [1,2,3] , . .


, "" . , . , , , , , / . , ? , , , . , , , "", ? , , , S, S -, "" . , exp(- 2S) . S , [1]. , , , , . , , . , , . ? , , ? , . -, . , , , . , , James Hartle [4,5,6]. , - , , . , : R. Omn?s, R. Griffiths, D. Zeh, W. Zurek, J. P. Paz, C. Isham N. Linden. , ( ), , - - , ­ , , , . , , . , , . . , . , , . , , - , . , - . , Hartle [ 7] ,


, . , , , , , . , , r ( ), , Hartle Hawking. , |Y> , a.. |Y> () . , , tl, t2, .. tk ak, , . tk P(ak; ak-1...a2al). , a = ala2a3a4, Ca|Y>, Ca = P(an; an-l...a2al) P(an-l; an-2... a2al)....P(a2;al). t ,
k

(2)

(3) (4)

P(ak; ak-l... a2al) P(a' k; ak-l... a2al) = d(ak,a' k) P(ak; ak-l... a2al) Sak P(ak; ak-l... a2al) = I, I ­ . SaCa = I, Y> = SaCa|Y>.

(5) (6)

, a, , a b a b. . , , , CaY> . () . , , a . , . , . ( , , ,


.) , , , , , , . . ( ), . ( [6] Hartle , , .) (realm) . , , , (.., , ) , (major branchings). " (branching)" ; , . , , , . - , , "" . , "" , , , , . . , . . , , , , , , , ... , , . , . , , , -, , . , , . , , , . . , , [ 1,2], ( , ), . , , IGUS (information gathering and utilizing system - ). IGUS,


, , , , , . , , , (, , ) IGUS . , , IGUS, , , , . ( .) , . . , , . . -, , "", , , , "". . , ( , ) . , , , , . , , , . . , . , i , , . , , . , , ( ). , , , . . , ­ ­ , IGUS ( ). tk . ? , ­ , = . , , , . ? , , , , , - . , , , .


, , , - , . : 1) , . 2) ( ), . 3) , , , . ( , - .) . 4) . 5) , IGUS . 6) , . 7) , . , . 1) 2), , . . , ( ) , : a) , , , , . b) ( ) . c) IGUS . d) , . 1. Murray Gell-Mann, The Quark and the Jaguar, W. H. Freeman, New York, 1994. 2. Murray Gell-Mann, Complexity 1/1, 16-19, (1995). 3. Murray Gell-Mann and Seth Lloyd, Complexity, 2/1, 44-52, (1996). 4. Murray Gell-Mann and James B. Hartle, Quantum Mechanics in the Light of Quantum Cosmology,' in Complexity, Entropy, and the Physics of Information, SFI Studies in the Sciences of Complexity, Vol. VIII, ed. by W. Zurek, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, 1990. 5. Murray Gell-Mann and James B. Hartle, Phys. Rev. D, 47, 3345 (1993). 6. Murray Gell-Mann and James B. Hartle, 'Strong Decoherence,' in Proceedings of the 4th Drexel Symposium on Quantum Non-Integrability -- The Quantum-Classical Correspondence, 1994, D.H. Feng, ed., in press. 7. James B. Hartle, 'The Quantum Mechanics of Cosmology,' in Quantum Cosmology and Baby Universes: Proceedings of the 1989 Jerusalem Winter School for Theoretical Physics, ed. by S. Coleman, J. B. Hartle, 8. T. Piran, And S. Weinberg, World Scientific, Singapore (1991).