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© Korotaev S.M.

Forecasting effect of macroscopic nonlocality
S.M. Korotaev1, V.O. Serdyuk1, J.V. Gorohov2, S.A. Pulinets2 and V.A. Machinin 1 . Geoelectromagnet ic Research Inst itute Russian Academy o f Sciences, GEMRI Post Box 30, Troitsk, Moscow Region 142190 Russia. 2 Inst itute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation Russian Academy of Sciences, Troitsk, Moscow Region 142190 Russia.
1

Moder n experiments have confirmed existence of Kozyrev's transaction of th e dissipative pr ocesses, which is understood now as manifestation of macroscopic nonlocality. The most prominent property of this phenomenon is transaction in reverse time. It gives the possi bility, in some sense, to observe the noncontrolled future. A new approach to the forecast of th e large-scale geophysical and astrophysical processes can be elaborated on th e basis of this effect.

Introduction
Macroscopic nonlocalit y consists in correlat ion of different dissipative processes wit hout any lo cal carr iers of interact ion [1-3]. Nonlocal correlation (vio lated Bell-t ype inequalit ies) is very specific, e.g. it obeys only weak causalit y, but not strong one [4]. That invo lves, in part icular, unusual advanced transact ion for the noncontrolled pro cesses. Nature of macroscopic nonlocalit y is not clear, but there is a good reason to t hink that is macro-manifestat ion of quantum nonlocalit y. It is generally believed that quantum nonlocalit y is observed only at the micro-level. But beginning with [5] t heoretical reasoning has evo lved about persistence of nonlo calit y in the strong macro-limit. Most sequentially this idea was developed in Ref. [6]. On the other hand, a new way of entanglement for mation via a commo n thermostat was suggested recently [7] and this way needs dissipativit y o f the quantum correlated processes. It means that dissipat ivit y may not only lead to decoherence, but on the contrary it may play a constructive role. Namely for the dissipat ive processes the first experimental evidence of macroscopic nonlocalit y was obtained in the early experiments on causal mechanics performed by Kozyrev [8] (though they were interpreted in other terms). The observed effects consisted o f transact ion between two practically insulated processes. I f one of them was noncontrolled (large-scale natural one) t he transact ion was o bserved wit h symmetrical ret ardat ion and advancement [9]. However Kozyrev's result s met a contrad ictor y reaction because of not high level of rigour of his experiments. The idea o f verificat ion of Kozyrev's result s at the modern level o f rigour had been independently realized by two t eams [2,10] with fo llowing jo int interpretation [1]. In this paper we briefly review the main results and present the most recent ones.

Theory
Since standard blueprint of observat ion of quantum nonlocal correlation is w illingly unfit at the macro-limit, for formulat ion of exper imentally verified hypothesis we have introduced dissipat ion in the framework of Cramer interpretation of quantum nonlocalit y by WheelerFeynman act ion-at -a-distance electrodynamics [4]. The latter we have used in moder n quantum treatment [11]. As a result the fo llowing equation o f macroscopic nonlocalit y was suggested [12]:


& Sd = s

Р

& s Ф 2 x2 Ж d Г t - 2 В dV x2 Х uЬ

(1)

& where S d is entropy production in the probe-process (that is detector), d ~h4 / me2 e 4 , e & m is electron mass, e is elementar y charge, s is densit y o f the entropy production in the sources, x is distance, t is time, propagat ion velo cit y u is subluminar: u 2 ё 2 , V is source vo lume. d - funct ion shows that transact ion pro gresses with symmetrical retardation and advancement. According to Ref. [4], it does not vio late weak causalit y if the source is noncontrolled by an observer. That is why the interesting is performance o f the experiment namely wit h natural large-scale astrophysical and geophysical source-processes. It should be noted that simplest Eq.(1) does not take into account abso rption by the intermediate medium. In Ref. [11] it has been shown that known Wheeler-Feynma n requirement on perfect absorption of the field by the matt er concerns only retarded part, while absorption o f advanced one must be imperfect. Therefore screening properties of the matter relat ive to the advanced field must be attenuated. As a result level of advanced correlatio n may exceed retarded one. Ro le o f the medium manifests itself in one mo re way: the transact ion occurs by diffusio n interparticle chains ( by means o f microscopic Weeler-Feynman fie lds) that brings to a small result ing v in Eq.(1) and correspondingly to large result ing values o f retardation and advancement.

Experiment
The task of the experiment is to detect entropy change o f the environment according to Eq. (1) under condit ion, that all known classical local interactions are suppressed. Alt hough any dissipat ive process could be taken as probe one, its choice is dictat ed by relative value o f the effect and theoretical "transparency", allowing to relate measured signal with left-hand side of Eq. (1) and consciously to take steps on screening and/or control of all possible local no isefacto rs (temperat ure, pressure, electromagnetic field etc.). Two experimental setup for study of macroscopic nonlocalit y had been constructed [1]. The GEMRI setup used two types of det ectors based on var iat ions o f self-potentials of weakly polarized elect rodes in an electrolyte and on variatio ns of dark current of the photomult iplier. The setup consists of nearby electrode and photomult iplier detectors, anot her electro de detector and apparatus for the local factors control. The CAP setup uses ion mobilit y detector based o n variat ions of co nduct ivit y in a small ele ct rolyte volume under well controlled loca l condit ions. The CAP setup is spaced at 40 km from GEMRI one. All technical and theoretical details were presented in Ref. [1,10,12]. The experiments with controlled lab source-processes had shown existence only retarded transaction [10,13]. Much more interesting results were obtained in the lo ng-term experiments devoted to study detectors reaction on various geophys ical and astrophysica l pro cesses. These experiments had been co nducted in 1993-96 with the elect rode detector, in 1996-97 wit h the all 3 detectors of the GEMRI setup and in 1997 w it h CAP setup. From 2001 a new experiment with the best electrode detector has been conducted. The most important results are following [1-3, 12, 14]. 1. The signals of all 4 detectors of 3 types are high correlated. Level of correlat ion is independent of t ype of detectors and only slightly dependent on their separat ion. Analysis had shown t hat signals were formed by so me commo n causes but their influence could not be local


2. Such co mmo n causes proved to be so lar, synoptic, geo magnet ic and io nospheric activit y. Strong correlat ion o f the detector signals advanced relative to these processes has been revealed. Retarded correlat ion is always less, decreasing along space scale of the processes, and becoming insignificant for the most large-scale processes (so lar and global geo magnetic act ivit y). Value of advancement is large: about from 10 hours to 100 days and it increases alo ng the space scale. 3. Nonlocal character of correlat ion was proved by Bell-t ype inequalit y vio lation. 4. Eq. (1) was quantitatively verified on example of the process of geo magnet ic act ivit y (because namely this process allowed relat ively simply co mputation its right-hand side). 5. Level o f advanced correlat ion allowed to demo nstrat e the possibilit y o f so lar, geomagnet ic and synopt ic forecast.

New results with old experimental data
In spite of long total duration of the experiments, there were technical interruptions. In Ref. [1-3, 12, 14] only cont inuous time series were used. As a result maximal series length was not exceeded several mo nths. Meanwhile level o f nonlocal correlat ion increases along t he period of variat ions, particularly for the so lar act ivit y. Now to increase signal/no ise rat io we have united data segments, interpolat ing the gaps and sacrific ing the short periods. We applied this procedure to electrode det ector, solar act ivit y and global geo magnetic act ivit y data. As index of the solar act ivit y we used so lar radio wave flux R at frequency 610 MHz ( radiating from the lower corona, that is just fro m the level o f maximal dissipat ion in the so lar at mosphere [14]). As index o f the glo bal geomagnet ic act ivit y we used Dst-index [14]. It should be stressed that detector is not sensit ive nor to the radio waves, neit her to t he magnet ic field; R and Dst are only qualit ative indices of the source entropy production. United time series was chosen by criterion of maximal gap length not more t han 28 days. The lo ngest series fit this criterion t urned out electrode det ector signal U one wit h duration 2 years and 9 mo nths (10/26 1994-07/24/1997). R and Dst serieses were taken fro m 1 year before to 1 year latter relatively to ends o f U series. All data were daily averaged and lowpass filtered (pass periods T > 28 days). Data were processed by correlat ion analysis wit h variable time shift t. In Fig.1 the correlation funct ion rUR of the detector signal U and so lar activit y R is shown. Negative t ime shift corresponds to retardation of U relat ive to R , posit ive one ­ to advancement. The main maximum rUR = 0.5 ±0.002 at advancement t = 42 days. Taking into account low-pass filtration probably better to say 6 weeks, but this result exact ly equals t = 42 days obtained in Ref. [14] by another detector, by another time series (12/12/199612/11/1997) and by another, more sophist icated mathemat ical method (causal analysis).


Fig.1 Correlation function rUR of the detector signal U and solar activity R. Negative time shift t, days, cor responds to retar dation U relative to R, positive one - to advancement.

Retarded correlat ion is insignificant. Availabilit y o f other two advanced maxima also corresponds to results of Ref.[4]. Correlat ion of the detector signal wit h geo magnetic act ivit y is almost the same: max rUDst = 0.50 ±0.002 at the same t = 42 days. The same value o f t is explained by small re sponse t ime of Dst on R (1-2 days) as compared wit h low-pass filt er parameter T = 28 days. Correlation o f Dst with R seems pract ically synchronous at given t ime reso lution ( rUDst = 0.30 ±0.002 at t = 0). Hence we observe probably a direct influence o f the solar activit y on the detector signal that is typical property of nonlocalit y. For proof consider Bell-t ype inequalit y [1,12]:

i Ё max (iU|Dst, iDst|R ) ,
U|R

(2)

where i are the independence funct ions. The independence funct ions are terms of causa l analysis (e.g. [15]) and defined as iZ|Y = H(Z|Y) / H(Z), where H(Z|Y) is condit ional Shannon entropy and H(Z) is marginal one o f the variables Z and Y. 0 ё iZ|Y ё 1, iZ|Y =0 if Z is one-valued funct ion of Y , iZ|Y =1 if Z is not depended on Y. Value of iZ|Y is equally fit for linear or any nonlinear type o f dependence Z on Y. It is important for given problem because relationship of U and R is essent ially nonlinear [1]. The fulfillment of Ineq.(2) is sufficient condit ion for localit y o f connect ion along the causal chain R® Dst® U. For estimation o f stabilit y o f calculated values o f i the all three channels in t urn were no ised by 21 % ( by power) flicker-no ise [1,12]. The results are: iU|R = 0.807 +0..010 , iU |Dst = 0.836 +0..000 , - 0 002 - 0 009 i = 0.832 +0..008 . Ineq. (2) is vio lated, therefore connect ion R®U is nonlocal. - 0 000 Availabilit y o f advanced correlat ion can be applied for the forecast problem. As the detector signal variat ions and large-scale processes are far fro m d-co rrelated, for real forecast t he plural regressio n algorithm is necessary. But now we aim only to demonstrate the forecast possibilit y by simple shift time series on t corresponding to t he main correlat ion maximum. For this simplest algorithm level o f correlat ion r = 0.5 is insufficient nor for R neit her for Dst.
Dst|R


To increase correlat ion we tried to restrict the period range fro m above. For the rUR it has not increased its value, but for rUDst such appropriate period range has been found, namely 364 > T >28 days. The result is shown in Fig.2. At advancement t = 42 days there is max rUDst = 0.70 ± 0.02. Then we can shift filtered time serieses and see that detector signal U really forecasts the global geo magnet ic act ivit y Dst wit h advancement 42 days (Fig.3).

Fig. 2 Correlation function rUDst of the detector signal U and geomagnetic activity Dst by data filtered in period range 364 > T > 28 days. Negative time shift t, days, corresponds to retardation U relative to Dst, positive one ­ to advancement.

Fig. 3 The detector signal U ( mV ) forecasts the geomagnetic activity Dst (nT) with advancement 42 days.


New experimental results
On October, 22, 2001 a new experimental on study o f electrode detector reaction on the solar activit y began. As the signals relat ed with the solar activit y is sufficient ly strong at t he lo ng periods (mo nths and years) data collect ion is under way yet. Visible detector signal is very smooth. But at the beginning o f 2003 extremely sharp splashes (with durat ion o f order of hour) and with big magnitude, fro m 4 to 134 mV (precisio n of measurements is 0.5mV) were observed on January 1,9,14,15, February 3, 11, 13, 14. The were not any similar events fro m the beginning o f the experiment and the were not after. The biggest splash was o n Februar y, 3 (Fig.4). Just 42 days after the famous solar flare March, 17 happened. It was very seldom, gigant ic flare of class X (Fig. 5).

Fig. 4 Unusual splash of th e detector signal U on February, 3, 2003.

Fig. 5 Gigantic solar flare (x-ray flux F) on March, 17, 2003, i.e. 42 days after the event recorded by detect or, which is shown in Fig.4.


In such a manner this powerful so lar event caused advanced reaction of the electrode detector with several time shifts and with the main predictor at t = 42 days. Moreover splash shapes of the self-potentials (Fig. 4) and solar x ­ rays one (Fig5) are similar. In spite of greatest magnitude that solar flare was not geoactive (it did not cause a globa l magnet ic storm because of its inappropriate position on the Sun). Therefore influence of this solar event on the detector signal was direct (nonlocal).

Conclusions
The lo ng-t erm experiments have revealed forecasting effect of macroscopic nonlocalit y. It manifests as advanced transact ion o f pract ically insulated dissipat ive processes, that confirms early Kozyrev's result s. The process o f variat ions o f self-potentials difference o f weakly polarized electrodes in the electrolyte correlates with the so lar and geo magnet ic act ivit y. Advancement equals about one and half mo nth. Nonlocal character of correlat ion has confirmed by vio lat ion of Bell-t ype inequalit y. Forecast ing applications are possible. Theoretical interpretation o f this effect too heuristic and it s deeper understanding is burning. The intriguing question is: why does nonlocalit y give a possibilit y of observation o f the future only noncontrolled by an observer? Is it means that observer's consciousness so mehow suppresses the advanced transaction?

Acknowle dgments
This work was supported by RFBR and Moscow Region Government (grants 02-05-64006 and 01-05-97015). The authors thank S.P. Gaidash, V.I. Nalivayko and A.V. No vysh for part icipat ion in the experiment.

References
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