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© Gus Koehler

Mapping An Organization's Temporal Signature from Order To Chaos
By Gus Koehler, California Research Bureau and Victoria Koehler-Jones, California State University, Sacramento

Is there a map that traces the stages of organizational change as it moves from order to chaos? Are there characteristic organizational rtyhms that regulate this dissolution and reforming process at critical points on the map? This paper presents a theoretical argument that the Feigenbaum Diagram provides such a map and that the concept of temporal signature predicts organizational rythms at various mapped points. In support of these claims, the paper presents empirical evidence that organizations under extreme stress follow the path shown by the Feigenbaum Diagram. The paper defines the concept of temporal signature, shows how it has been used to study organizations, and makes specific and testable predictions about how it might change across the Feigenbaum map. We will draw on the organizational disaster response literature and present original research to illustrate and test our theory. Workplace Rules and Fields Of Action Generally, employees are applying policies, work processes, work behaviors and attitudes, or "workplace rules" within a "field of action" (Kiel, 1994). The field of action is defined as the interface (surface) between the physical workplace and external environment. Although it is usually experienced as relatively ordered and predictable from day-to-day, the field of action is multidimensional and highly complex. In the case of a disaster, the field of action is influenced by the initial conditions following an abrupt transformation of the environment. Kiel tells us that: It is the interaction of the [workplace] rules of motion with the field of action that determines the direction and result of motion in the workplace. The dynamic created by the interaction of the `rules' and the `field of action' lead to agency outputs and performance (Kiel, 1994). The timing of the rules of motion is intimately connected with what happens in the field of action; the earlier is nested in the latter. From this perspective, agency outputs and performance is the result of the interactive dynamic (Kiel's "motion") of the organizational patterning process. This abruptly initiated process of transition from one type of organizational pattern--emergency medical day-to-day response or planning and practice for example--to a another organizational pattern--disaster response--is accompanied by a change in workplace rules within a unique, disaster created field of action according to the rules or "timing" of dynamic motion. Such rules would have a great deal to do with emergent organizational form (Thom, 1972). Put another way, process and structure are

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complementary via the dynamic rules of motion. Organizational survival and the emergence of the response system is related to these time dependent, self-organized adaptive activities and to the rules of dynamic motion (Jansch, 1980). As we will show, an organization's temporal signature varies according to where it is on the Fiegenbaum Diagram. Together they trace the emergent results of the dynamic of motion. Social Time, Temporal Signature, Workplace Rules and Fields of Action Social time is an ordering principle that coordinates, orients, and regulates interactions between people and groups (Adam, 1990) As such, social time is embedded in the emergent organizational pattern of workplace rules in a field of action; social time expresses the dynamic rules of this "motion". Group processes create expectations and ideas of conformity. By doing so these processes give give meaning to the various dimensions of time orientation in each area that the group is active in. These group temporal models are not "ideal" in the sense of being defined by an external universal standard such as a clock. Individuals create time models of how time is patterned and how it flows. For example, temporal patterns can be circular based on the round of the seasons or linear and extending indefinitely into the future. How quickly change occurs, its rhythm, and its constancy and uniformity are example of the social construction of time's flow. Concepts of causation, prediction, personal ability to influence the future, readiness to act as well as to whether a person feels that they can create their own future (fatalism vs. self-determinism) are related to this temporal constructing process. An individual's or group's temporal signature is a product of the active pattern forming processes of social time. Just as the hand moves to form a unique signature, so too does the individual and group engage in a unique timing of motion according to a temporal signature. The various shapes resulting from this process trace out time characteristics that can be interpreted as open, closed, progressive, traditional and so forth. "Temporal signatures vary from individual to individual by education, social class, and other factors." (Macy, 1994). By studying the pattern of the temporal signature at moments in time, and the rules that govern this change process (we will call this morphogensis) we can determine the states of the components of the process that regulates the motion defining workforce rules in a field of action. Since these motions form the deep structure of pattern we must acknowledge that process and structure--workforce rules and field of action are examples of the latter--are complementary. Each offers a different and essential construction of the phenomenon, and each are necessary for its complete description. Generally, the organization's temporal signature defines a sort of dance that people engage in as they collectively create organizational life. Managers and staff define the pattern and flow of time, and thus the rhythm of this dance (Macy, 1994). All schemes of periodization of organizational life are authoritatively defined in the sense that they reflect management's view, tempered by the employees, about what is "good" or "right" within a particular field of action for its organizational "dance" (Koehler and Haden, 1982). Studies of Western organizational culture note that most managers view time as "monochronic" or extending

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like a line into the future that can be divided into equal segments. "Time is a valuable commodity that can be spent, wasted, or made good use of..."(Schein, 1985). In contrast, "polychronic" time is defined more by social relationships and what can be accomplished than by a clock. "Relationships may be more important than efficiency; therefore, rapid completion of a task or punctuality may not be valued as highly..."(Schein, 1985). The ability to plan for and control one's future varies by organizational rank; those higher in rank have longer time horizons than those lower in rank. Different agencies vary in their capacity to mobilize their personnel, to organize their response, to rhythmically entrain with other organizations, to perform tasks, and to meet time deadlines (Macy, 1994). Different groups and individuals within the organization may be either future or past oriented making it difficult to coordinate to achieve common goals. From this perspective, temporal continuity, particularly future time perspective, appears to be important to the cohesion and internal functioning of the group, to the interaction between the multiple groups that make up a complex organization, and probably to inter-group relations. But, temporality may be even more complex than what we have laid out up to this point. While earlier approaches to the study of social time have reduced time perspectives to simple linear cause and effect relationships, on reflection we see that, when considering the entire temporal signature, the nature of the phenomenon is neither simple nor linear. The future in all it' s multiple forms and meanings, together with the present and the numerous constructions and reconstruction's of the past, can be entertained in one mind with illogical and even conflictual simultaneity. Time flows quickly and slowly, toward a future which appears to be at once open and closed, bringing consistent but disjunctive change. In contrast, linear models of time look rather like "flatland" where elements and their values appear to exist in inexplicable and fragmented independence from each other. This snapshot of how things look or feel at a particular point in time--and which has been taken to reflect a unique and enduring perception--denies the complex processes and interpretations that lurk beneath the surface. As an alternative Koehler-Jones proposes a model for the generation of group's temporal signature where every element can potentially hold any range of values within a particular domain; it is the relationships between and among elements that gives shape and defines the temporal signature character of the workplace rules interaction with a field of action (Koehler-Jones, 1996a). The temporal signature tends to be stable but is not static particularly under extreme conditions as shown later in this paper. It is a multilayered process where the salience and dominance of various elements is continually shifting to augment, overshadow, or obscure others. The description that emerges is more like hypertext where various aspects move across layers of depth, in and out, interweaving in fluid, multiple, interlinking, yet parallel operating forms. Although the mathematical expression "non-linear" has been used as a single term for this complex of motions it has been suggested that a richer description would include humanistic connotations. J.T. Fraser has suggested: kaleidoscopic, unrestrained, multi-dimensional, volcanic, many-colored, unruly, elusive, rhapsodic, and, our favorite, unpredictably ordered (Koehler-Jones, 1996b).

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For the purposes of this paper, we will speculate that disaster response organizations of whatever kind have characteristic temporal signatures and these signatures go through a particular change sequence--a "continuity" through time--illustrated by the Feigenbaum Diagram. Our "timeless" temporal signature model helps to understand the implications of these changes for workplace rules and organizational change. First we discuss the elements of the temporal signature, drawing from the disaster literature to provide examples. Next, we show that disaster response can be described by the Feigenbaum Diagram and that there are five distinctly different organizational timings as we move from order to chaos. We finish with an exploration of the termporal signature of each of the five different time zones and provide hypothesis for testing each. The Elements of Temporal Signature The temporal signature and its dynamic temporal perspective are created by temporal progression which forms the temporal pattern. Temporal progression. This is the dimension of process and motion describing the movement or flow of the present into the future or into the past (i.e., the "remembering of it"). The question is "how" is the present moved into the past or future. The components that describe the speed and nature of this "how" in motion are tempo and rhythm. It is the qualitative relationship between these elements, their existential quality, that is important for forming the temporal progression. Tempo refers to the pace of activity. With respect to future events, tempo includes both the rate at which the future approaches and the speed of onset of specific events. (With respect to past events it is how fast they fade away.) This element has significance for situations like the one referred to by Green and associates where people living around Mt St. Helens believed they could outrun the rising river (tempo as on-set of the river's rising/personal running speed) if volcanic mudflows suddenly raise its level. 1 Tempo is also conditioned by the relativism or independence of flow, i.e. the role of external forces, and/or other dimensions such as space, on the "flow of life." For example, the Einsteinium view argues that speed depends on position or motion relative to space shaped by gravity; the Newtonian view argues for uniform consistency unperturbed by context. The dimension of tempo then, covers "fastness" and whether that "fastness" is independent of other conditioning factors. Rhythm refers to the regular recurrence of cer "pulsating" or periodic cycles as described by and unpredictable. If the latter, one must ask apparently unpredictable being embedded in a tain features of time. Does time move in Zerubavel.2 Is its motion smooth, or irregular whether is it truly unpredictable or only chaotic attractor.

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A distinction can be drawn between rhythm, and the character of change of features within it. It may be that, within a rhythmic system, change occurs gradually or in sharp disjunctive motions bringing unexpected novelty. Is the cadence within the rhythm smooth, choppy, disjunctive? Overall, the character of the "how"--the structuration of the tempo and rhythm of the flow into the future--is an essential part of future and past perspectives even though it has not been previously recognized. Pattern Pattern reveals the shapes (cyclical, elliptical, linear, and so forth) of the temporal perspective (discussed below) and, more broadly, of the temporal signature. Pattern includes degree of demarcation of past, present and future as well as scope or "wholeness" of perspective. Pattern has two parts: shape and the structure within shape; and modal differentiation. Shape. The structure of the existential flow is highly personal and idiosyncratic in small chunks of time like weeks.1 Anthropologists and others have characterized the shape of cultural time as cyclical, elliptical, spiral, linear, and so forth. Conventional views project these patterns in two dimensions but, as we have shown, their complexity suggests that designs with overlapping levels of temporal experience are more faithful expressions of the underlying progression. Cyclic (and other) biological processes combine with external rhythms--natural, manmade, social and so forth--to create tangled arrangements captured in multi-dimensional patterns, symbolizing the intricacy of the shapes created by these intermeshing, intermingling movements (Diagram 1 Phenomenological Complexity in Temporal Patterns). (Diagram 1 about here) Modal differentiation. The second aspect of pattern is the degree of differentiation assigned modalities of past, present and future. Assuming a continuum of time running from past to future, there is also a continuum of precision of demarcation of these directional elements running from clearly demarcated segments to a minimally demarcated state where everything exists at one time--in the present.3 Cottle's (1977) work points to two additional characteristics of modal differentiation; atomistic, and gestahltist.4 This refers to the tendency to see time either in chunks (atomistic) or as an infinity of points (gestaltist) creating a unified whole within the broader model differentiation context (Diagram 2). We might refer to Cottle's variable as "scope," or (Diagram 2 about here)
It is not known whether the experience of pattern is ubiquitous, or at what age it begins to develop. Might some individuals express no discernible pattern at all?
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extension of these directional demarcations. Differentiation and scope are aspects of the patterning dimension which have important implications for perception of causal relationships because they define the way the flow is segmented and the character of connections between things. In short, pattern is useful in investigating disaster response attitudes because, as cognative maps showing temporal experience and expectation, they portray the inevitability or uncertainty of future occurrences, where in time they lay, how they approach, and they portend how actions will be organized to respond.

Temporal perspective Temporal perspective refers to temporal signature's phenomenological or existential view emerging from temporal progression and pattern. Generally, a person's sense of identity depends on "continuity in temporal perspective, especially future time perspective. ...[P]erspectives on the future are more permanent than other elements of time...If the continuity of the future perspective is disrupted one becomes estranged from one's self leaving an uneasy feeling of strangeness and unfamiliarity." 5 Most time related research deals with what we are calling concept of temporal perspective. Elements specifically identified in this literature and that will be briefly discussed below are: orientation or directedness with respect to the modalities (past, present and future); depth or expansion of past and future horizons; and reality. Reality is the orientation that emerges from the interaction between the density, richness and coherence (substance or concreteness of future or past images) of the temporal perspective. Orientation refers to the relative importance of, or degree of involvement in the various modalities: past, present or future. Following Schneider, there are seven (simplified) possibilities for which modality or combination of modalities predominate as shown in Table 1. (Table 1 about here) Depth/Expansion: While orientation has to do with directedness, depth has to do with distance or reach. A subtle distinction exists between "extension," or the range of years between subject age and the most distant event named (as investigated by Wallace), and "expansion," or meaningful depth of the past and future (as explored by Fraise and Kastenbaum).6 "Expansion" asks how far forward or backward in time the subject occupies himself within conceptualizing a particular type of event, either objective or mythical. Projective ability applies to both extension and expansion, but memory decay is only relevant to expansion. Expansion then is a broader, hence more useful, term. Reality qualifies orientation and depth by specifying how well articulated spaces of time are. First introduced by Lewin, the concept is based on the idea that precision indicates how 7 realistic future or past images are in the mind' s eye. This aspect of temporal signature has to do with order and planning and consists of three parts: density, richness and coherence.

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Density measures and explains orientation and depth by asking how many events, plans, goals, apprehensions or anticipation's are placed in what temporal spaces. By asking "..the number of events, roles and experiences an individual expects to populate his future," Kastenbaum asks how many relationships or connections are drawn from present activities to future states. Connections to past states, and relationships to present experiences are also highly relevant. In a comparative analysis one can ask, for example, about the number of future expectations relative to present and past experiences. Or the question may be posed to explore depth, as Nowotny suggests, by asking whether an overly dense proximal future has negative implications for thoughtful consideration of the distal future.8 The relationship between density and extension is shown in Diagram 3. (Diagram 3 about here) Richness refers to the level of existential or phenomenological detail in present planning or past remembrances. It provides qualitative differentiation by assessing the unity, intelligibility, or logical integration of the event itself. Coherence refers to the degree of consistency in the structuring and ordering differentiated events. Wallace originally used the term to refer to consistency ranking tasks. Kastenbaum later used it for the broader purpose of arranging occurrences of important past life events. Here coherence should be used in it sense as a term for relating events--whether past or future--to each other. of in sequential the s broadest

Trommsdorff and Trommsdorff and Lamm observe that coherence is related to causality because the ordering of events in temporal sequence is primary to establishing causation.9 We argue that the "order" suggested by these authors is linear and, to free ourselves from unnecessary methodological prejudice, coherence would be better conceptualized as an aspect of pattern. While coherence refers to concrete and finite arrangements of particular events or experiences, pattern refers to abstract structure with multiple dimensions and limitless possibilities (Digram 4). (Diagram 4 about here) Each element of the time signature can have various levels of concreteness, providing a wide range of possible ways of "seeing" time. Temporal distances and concrete expectations are manifest by future planning or past remembrances at both fuzzy and detailed levels. Each of the elements of the time signature depend on subject/object relationships, (what one is talking about and to whom it is relevant). We normally plan only weeks or months into the future when we are thinking of such things as holidays, birthdays and the purchase of big-ticket items, but Svenson' s work shows that thoughts turn to longer time periods with environmental subjects such as climate change and hazardous waste. Desirable planning horizons increase as we move from self to other. Context is also critical for optimal density which depends upon the subject being discussed and for whom it is relevant. With respect to context and the relationship between coherence and reality, Schneider made this value judgment: "..we can assume that the future perspective is more favorable the more coherent and in touch with reality it is," but he neglected to explain what is meant by "favorable," and we are left to wonder whether it means being right about what actually comes to pass or

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whether it means emotional satisfaction (both being meaningful relational realities). In our concern about how far into the future extreme disasters are perceived--and perceived in such as way that they are made of sufficient concern to change or impact the everyday world--we must be clear in our definition of subject and object. Our brief discussion of the temporal signature shows just how complex the rules are that shape the timing of organizational workplace rules. Many factors are entertwined with concepts of future planning, current work organization practices, and how a response is "supposed to go" from the perspective of "normal" time. These factors are listed in outline form below. Disasters severely upset this comfortable timing out of group life. Table 2 about here

Disaster Characteristics That Disorder Response Organizations A public disaster response agency (ambulance and hospital services for example) trying to organize itself to respond is an example of an organization under extreem stress. A disaster occurs when the local emergency response system's means for managing and coordinating a response are overwhelmed and require outside intervention to succeed (Drabek, 1994; Dynes and Tierney, 1995; and Quarantelli, 1994) They simply don't have the resources to do the job. The effort to organize a disaster response structure involving multiple public, private, and non-profit agencies can be disrupted in any one number of unpredictable ways (Drabek, 1994, 1986; Auf der Heide, 1989; and Waugh and Hy, 1990). · · · · · · · The type of disaster that could occur at any time is unpredictable. Where a disaster will occur is often unpredictable. How a disaster will unfold in geographic space over time is often unknown. The type and distribution of injuries in space and time is often unknown. Which elements of the response system or of supporting organizations (law enforcement for example) will be damaged, how they are damaged, and the resulting delay in their response is unpredictable. Self-organizing efforts by citizens, responders in the field, and other emergency organizations at the state, federal level, non-profit and private sector level will create unexpected communications paths and response structures. Information about the entire emergent disaster response structure or even parts of response (including how it extends across the community, city, operational area, the status and organization of the regional response, state response, and federal response) is incomplete. A disaster response structure is "emergent" because it did not exist at a time prior to the disaster. It involves the birth of new units or the restructuring of old ones at the work group, organizational, inter-organizational, community, or regional level that are more or less adaptive to a particular circumstance within the disaster (Drabek, 1989). It is difficult to not only identify what and where the new structures are or how

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old ones have changed, but also to identify the form of inter-group and interagency connections. · Existing strains between organizations may be exacerbated. Existing strains between organizations due to competition with other organizations, organizational placement (fire service or police for example), under funding and under staffing and other factors may come forward or be revealed making inter-organization coordination more difficult (Drabek, 1989) · Because of initial starting conditions, and varying resource demands, critical activity rates of the response within and between organizations drive each other and the overall response in unpredictable and complex ways. For example, the EMS disaster response depends on tight and effective coordination between many different public and private organizations including, for example between citizen self-organizing rescue efforts, ambulance companies, law enforcement, hospitals, pharmaceutical supply houses, surface and air transport, military forces, and federal, state, and local government agencies. The rate of victim rescue affects how quickly transport vehicles must be identified and dispatched which in turn affects how many injured people are waiting for care in a hospital emergency department, emergency department staffing, etc. These factors are driven by the availability of communications, of health care personnel and supplies, and by whether transport can move necessary resources to where they are needed. Barbara Adam in her analysis of the Chernobyl reactor accident, provides an excellent example of how such problems can lead to a catastrophic response: The difficulty of appreciating and handling complexity, I want to suggest, is tied to the tendency to think in terms of one-dimensional, linear event chains associated with aims, thus neglecting to take account of feedback and amplification, of sideeffects and exponentially accumulating processes. To achieve the urgently required cooling down and thus renewed stability of the reactor, the operators activated all eight pumps instead of the allowed maximum of six. Whilst the operators acted in accordance with their one-dimensional safety goal, the reactor went into a series of predetermined interconnected safety measures which proceeded along a very different rationale and lay outside the operator's control: operators and system functioned according to different underlying theories, assumptions, principles, time scales, implicit rules and mechanisms. They were on a collision course that ended in catastrophe (Adam, 1995). Chaos Theory And The Rules Of Organizational Morphogenesis Bateson tells us that: "The pattern which connects is a metapattern. It is a pattern of patterns. It is that pattern which defines the vast generalization that, indeed, it is patterns which connect"(Batson, 1979). By this Bateson meant that there is a nested relationship between the unique individual pattern and the overall metapattern that guides its formation. For example, a spiral is a pattern that the growing shape of various species of snails, conches and other similar creatures exhibit in their shells; it is a precise relationship that

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defines how one segment is added after another that informs each growth process. Paraphrasing Bateson: · · · All symmetry and segmentation is somehow a result of growth; Growth makes its formal demands for patterning; and One of these formal demands is satisfied (in a mathematical, an ideal sense) by spiral form (Bateson, 1979).

Or in the terms we are using here: · · · All organizational change is a result of growth ordered by the temporal signature; Growth makes its formal demands for patterning; and One of these formal demands is traced by the Feigenbaum Diagram.

Thus an uneque pattern is an expression of a general guiding metapattern that connects particular elements into a dance of interacting parts as they grow or change. Workplace rules are a particular interpretation of a metapattern characteristic of the interface formed by these particular rules and the environment. It is our view that the Feigenbaum Diagram provides a guiding metapattern for uneque changes in organizational structures as they respond to extreme conditions. How do we go about understanding the relationship between these two domains; the metapattern and the unique pattern of a particular response organization under extreme conditons? According to Kellert: "chaos theory is the qualitative study of unstable aperiodic behavior in deterministic nonlinear dynamical systems. ...As a qualitative study, chaos theory investigates a system by asking about the general character of its long-term behavior, rather than seeking to arrive at numerical predictions about its exact future state"(Kellert, 1993). Rather than answering the "why questions" such as explaining why a particular event occurs, it answers the "how questions". It does this by pointing to a computer graphic that has been created by a long series of iterations and asking how this complex pattern occurs. The answer to this "how" question often involves a complex geometric historical process such as stretching and folding and period doubling that bring these holistic, historical pattern forth (Peitgen, et.al.,1992). The unique organzational patterning at the interface is one point or interpretation of this larger, bounded metapattern. These geometric mechanisms are not law-full or casual mechanisms. The geometric process reveals patterns; it does not need to show the workings of an actual causal mechanism in a specific system. "...[I]t is `transcendentally' impossible to trace the actual causal influences that lead from one state to a later one. Not even an `ideal explanation text' could contain the full causal account....

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Two physically identical chaotic systems with identical boundary conditions and laws and with their one particle in the same physical state t0 can be different states at t>t0. That is, determinism as uniqueness of evolution fails to hold" (Kellert, 1993). What is being shown are the qualitative geometrical features traced out by continuous interactions of a particular set of non-linear conditions. It is a "dynamic pattern that connects." The term "morphogenesis" will be used to refer to this deeper dynamic qualitative set of organizing, response system dissolution/reforming rules across an extended time period. It turns out that in mathematical theory the change for dynamic systems from order and predictability into unpredictability or chaos is governed by a single law, and that the 'route' between the two conditions is a universal one. According to Pietgen and his colleges: "Route means that there are abrupt qualitative changes--called bifurcation's--which mark the transition from order into chaos like a schedule, and `universal' means that these bifurcation's can be found in many natural systems both qualitatively and quantitatively"
(Peitgen, et.al.,1992).

The Disaster Response Is At The Edge Of Chaos By applying the logistic equation to the appropriate disaster response data it appears to be possible to determine if a disaster organization or response system traces the universal route to chaos (Prie