Issue ? 48. February 2015

Uncertainty Factors of Regional Budget Planning: Ulyanovsk Region Case

Ph.D., Lead Consultant, Analytical Department, Ulyanovsk Region Administration, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation.
E-mail: headlon9@mail.ru

In this article regional budget forming and execution ex-post and ex-ante is examined on the example of Ulyanovsk region. Two variants of budget parameters (regional budget first and last editions) are compared with budget performance reports. The author provides several hypothetical explanations for the deviations between the two based on the analysis of most deviating item in the budget execution. Main factors reducing certainty in budget planning on regional level are late distribution of transfers from federal budget; randomly appearing budget costs (initiated on federal level), that are not provided by budget income; emergency and unexpected incidents. Main ways to decrease these factors of regional budget planning uncertainty are application of practice of real distribution of federal budget transfers based on federal budget law and regional emergency fund forming.

Keywords

Budget planning, regional budget, budget execution, ex-ante, ex-post.