Issue ? 35. December 2012

Comparative Analysis of Modern Demographic Forecast Models

Graduate student, School of Public Administration, Lomonosov Moscow State University.
E-mail: invizor@gmail.com

Demographic process modeling is an important and topical problem. In particular, on account of the demographic crisis in Russia it is important to predict population, age and ethnic composition of the country. To predict population different models are used with different input data. The following data may be used: history of population, data on demographic processes (fertility, mortality, migration) or more detailed data (nuptiality, education, income). In this article the author presents a comparative analysis of different models and draws conclusions about their efficiency and applicability in specific cases.

Keywords

Demographic models, demographic potential, stable population, the Earth’s population, imitation model, demographic senility.