The Impending Energy Crisis

Hubbert Peak

When Does the Oil Run Out?

What do we do then?

The Two Principle Problems with Energy Management: Failure for policy makers to understand the concept of exponential growth. Failure for legislature to be formulated and passed to give us a long term energy strategy that is sensible The result of these failures is to create an escalating energy crises as time continues to run out. Unfortunately, most people are either oblivious to this or believe that some new source of energy will magically appear. Our Probable Qualitative Future US Oil Production Over time The US is rapidly running out of production capacity. The Same is true for combined North American Production. What about the whole World? Capacity in US Oil Reserve: Known US Reserves as of 1990: = 36 billion barrels of oil Consumption Rate 3 billion barrels of oil per year 36/3 12 more years left By 1995 the Reserve Estimate had dwindled to 22.5 billion barrels of oil and the cosumption rate remains the same 22.5/3 = 7.5 years left so we are still on the trajectory Which all means that our reliance on Foreign Oil increases with time. Oil Imports 1973-1997 And of course, its just not the US, but the entire world that runs on Fossil Fuels: This is equivalent to about 300 TerraWatts of Power over the course of a year Renewables make up about 5-7% of this total (most all that is hydro) As exponential population increases and the LDC seeks the same per capita energy structure as the MCD demand should escalate Nominal World Population Clock With that escalating demand also will come escalating pollution and likely an excarbation of global warming. 1995-2020 Sources of Increased Carbon Pollution The Year of Peak Oil Production Continues to be a Lively Scholary Debate But Concensus is Emerging The Peak will likely occur around 2005 +/- 1 year Then decline to 10% of that peak within 50 years. (but it could easily be more rapid). The Price of Oil But it continues to be "cheap" What are our choices? Mine for more oil? Agressively pursue Energy Conservation? Develop Renewable Energies? Overcome our short term reward genes?

Lecture URL http://zebu.uoregon.edu/enhs