Fossil Fuel Production and Consumption

When will the oil run out?

The Hubbert Peak

• One Opinion
• Maybe even less time is left?

Emprically it is well established that production/consumption and discovery are very strongly related. There is a lag time. Discovery exceeds production so pressure to discover diminishes. When production exceeds discovery, pressure to discover more resource increases. Figure 2.5 in the book shows that this relation is maintained well sinc 1900.

• Although estimates are difficult the factors which must be included are:
  • The amount of known oil reserves (this is fairly well known)
  • The world wide consumption rate (this is difficult to estimate but its unlikely to go down)
  • The cost effectiveness of finding new oil deposits

  Most studies agree with the following prediction:

  Peak Production is likely to occur somewhere in the range 1990 - 2010. By 2050, world will be down to 10% of the peak production

  Note that the US has 3.6% of remaining oil and 5% of world's population but our extreme consumption rate reduces our timescale for using fossil fuels unless new sources are found. This is the motivating factor behind off-shore oil drilling

  What about other countries:

  The data below comes from the World Bank Social Indicators of Development Database.

  Country	Birth Rate # per 2 parents	Energy Consumption Kg of oil per capita
  U.S.	2.09	7.66 E + 03
  Canada	1.85	7.91 E + 03
  India	3.7	2.34 E + 02
  China	2.0	6.00 E + 02
  Brazil	2.75	6.80 E + 02
  France	1.78	4.03 E + 03
  Peru	3.3	3.29 E + 03
  Mexico	3.16	1.52 E + 03
  Britain	1.8	3.74 E + 03
  Japan	1.5	3.58 E + 03
  Egypt	3.75	5.85 E + 03
  New Zealand	2.12	4.28 E + 03

So, Let's go Back to Coal

• Petroleum/Natural Gas will run out in next 50 years
• 97% of fossil fuel reserve is COAL
• 20% of World's COAL supply is in the US

Energy yield depends on how much Carbon is contained in the Coal. Two types dominant US Reserves

• Oldest COAL (Anthracite) is 95% Carbon (300 million years old)
• Younger coals (lignite) 25 Carbon (150 million years old)
• Deposts are around 300 feet below surface and typically 2-8 feet thick Eastern Wyoming up to 100 feet thick!

Since 1970 COAL production is up

• At current usage, supply will last 1500 years (hooray!)
• At 5% growth rate, supply will last 86 years! (there's that silly exponential thingie again!)
  

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