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Emprically it is well established that production/consumption and discovery are very strongly related. There is a lag time. Discovery exceeds production so pressure to discover diminishes. When production exceeds discovery, pressure to discover more resource increases. Figure 2.5 in the book shows that this relation is maintained well sinc 1900.
Most studies agree with the following prediction:
Peak Production is likely to occur somewhere in the range 1990 - 2010. By 2050, world will be down to 10% of the peak production
Note that the US has 3.6% of remaining oil and 5% of world's population but our extreme consumption rate reduces our timescale for using fossil fuels unless new sources are found. This is the motivating factor behind off-shore oil drilling
What about other countries:
The data below comes from the World Bank Social Indicators of Development Database.
Country | Birth Rate# per 2 parents |
Energy ConsumptionKg of oil per capita |
---|---|---|
U.S. |
2.09 | 7.66 E + 03 |
Canada | 1.85 | 7.91 E + 03 |
India | 3.7 | 2.34 E + 02 |
China | 2.0 | 6.00 E + 02 |
Brazil | 2.75 |
6.80 E + 02 |
France |
1.78 | 4.03 E + 03 |
Peru | 3.3 | 3.29 E + 03 |
Mexico | 3.16 | 1.52 E + 03 |
Britain | 1.8 | 3.74 E + 03 |
Japan | 1.5 |
3.58 E + 03 |
Egypt |
3.75 | 5.85 E + 03 |
New Zealand | 2.12 | 4.28 E + 03 |
Since 1970 COAL production is up