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Its not to great of simplification to state that the failure to understand the concept of exponential growth by planners and/or legislators, is the single biggest problem in all of Environmental Studies and/or Management.
The Two Principle Problems with Energy Management:
Exponential growth drives resource usage for a very simple reason:
Human population increases exponentially:
Accurate trend extrapolation is the most important part of future planning. However, failure to assume exponential growth will always lead to a disaster so always assume exponential growth when planning anything!
In this example, one can clearly see that no matter what the growth rate is, exponential growth stars out being in a period of slow growth and then quickly changes over to rapid growth with a characteristic doubling time of
70/n years; n =% growth rate
Its important to recognize that even in the slow growth period, the use of the resource is exponential. If you fail to realize that, you will run out of the resource pretty fast:
Material | Rate | Exhaustion Timescale |
---|---|---|
Aluminum | 6.4% | 2007 -- 2023 | Coal | 4.1% | 2092 -- 2106 | Cooper | 4.6% | 2001 -- 2020 | Petroleum | 3.9% | 1997 -- 2017 | Silver | 2.7% | 1989 -- 1997 |
Gasoline is a prime example --> high cost promotes conservation/ fuel efficiency; low cost promotes high usage.
Subsidized energy usage also does not promote conservation
What areas are good for conservation?
Note, the applet below will only work if you are using IE 4.0 or Netscape 4.04. If not, the applet will come up broken.
This applet works as follows:
As an initial exercise, enter in 15 cents
per kilowatt hour for the rate and then see if you can construct
a pattern of appliance usage so the total yearly cost does not
exceed $2000.
Options:
The true cost of our private conveyance habit: The cost of this habit is extremely large when objectively looked at.
We export billions of dollars of US
currency overseas for fuel and then evolve a
foreign policy to protect that this
is beyond stupid ...
We consume lots of resources (steel) via the relatively
short lifetime of a basic non-recyclable unit.
Automobiles basically serve to transport iron ore from omuntains into
distributed junk yards across the US (entropy at work ...)
40,000 people per year are killed in
accidents compared to 500 per year in mass transit.
Infrastructure and maintenance costs are
absolutely enormous where is high speed
rail when you need it ...
Everyone's has got to park (except at
the UO) so we convert green space into parking lots (e.g. malls).
We end up with Grid Lock
Only in World War II was there an agressive public relations campaign
to get people to drive less. It worked. Here is some propaganda
from that era.
Major cause of air pollution which is
a health hazard that kills people!