Is there Intelligent Life in the Universe?

Another Classroom Exercise

A Statistical Estimate for the How Many Are Out there

We can write down a statistical equation to estimate the number of civilizations which currently exist in our Galaxy .

This equation has three parts:

• An astronomical part which basically predicts the number of planets that exist in the galaxy which have a liquid surface
• A biological part which basically estimates the probability that intelligent life will evolve on those planets which have a liquid surface
• A socio-economic part which determines the survivability of the civilization on that planet

Remember, we seem to be part of this Process Our choice now is which divergent path do we choose? - the long term one or the short term one?

So, here is the equation:

• The Astronomical part is the first three terms
• The Biological part is the next two
• The socio-economic part are the final two terms

• The uncertainty associated with each term grows as you move down the right hand side of the equation

Next Page

---

The Electronic Universe Project

e-mail: nuts@moo.uoregon.edu