Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://zebu.uoregon.edu/1995/ph161/rg.let
Дата изменения: Mon Oct 27 18:43:26 1997
Дата индексирования: Mon Oct 1 23:23:30 2012
Кодировка:

Поисковые слова: ice cap
This is in response to the letter by R. Spooner (Aug. 2) which
questions the validity of global warming. Measurements
of global temperature by themselves are indeed a poor way to
establish temperature trends because 1) the data are intrinsically
noisy and 2) the global mean temperature is physically imprecise.



However, when one measures temperature trends as a function
of latitude, the predicted increases at latitudes above +/- 45 degrees
are clearly seen. For reference, one can consult a document
prepared by NOAA located on the WWW (see
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gblwrmupd/global.html). This latitude data
caused a Sept. 1995 National Academy of Science Panel to conclude,
that the signature of global warming was now seen in
the noise of the global temperature data.


Furthermore, global warming is a far more complex issue than simple
temperature increases. The excess deposition of Carbon Dioxide (from
fossil fuel combustion) and Methane (from population growth) increases
the ability for the atmosphere and the oceans to retain heat and this
drives climatic change. Manifestations include increased
hurricane strength and seasonal disruptions of normal jet stream
patterns (e.g. the unprecedented Upper Midwest floods of 1993).
Increased warming at high latitudes exacerbates ice cap melting, releasing
frozen methane thus amplifying the problem. The system remains too
complex for climate models to unambiguously predict our future; specifically
the role of likely increased cloudiness is not clear.



What is clear however is that the earth is a complex global
system and human activities are altering equilibrium
cycles at an alarming rate. Excess Greenhouse gas emissions
are perturbing a very complex system;
the interaction between our atmosphere and the ocean.
The system itself is so large that it may take decades or even centuries
to respond to our activities.
Short term responses of the system such as strong El Nino's,
violent hurricanes, and ruined economies make newspaper headlines.
Behind the headlines, however, lies our collective belief that if our
actions today don't kill our neighbors tomorrow, then they remain justified.