What Dean Said

So, Let's go Back to Coal as our greatest reserve strength is there?

• Petroleum/Natural Gas will run out in next 50 years
• 97% of fossil fuel reserve is COAL
• 20% of World's COAL supply is in the US

Energy yield depends on how much Carbon is contained in the Coal. Two types dominant US Reserves

• Oldest COAL (Anthracite) is 95% Carbon (300 million years old)
• Younger coals (lignite) 25 Carbon (150 million years old)
• Deposts are around 300 feet below surface and typically 2-8 feet thick Eastern Wyoming up to 100 feet thick!

Since 1970 COAL production is up

• At current usage, supply will last 1500 years (hooray!)
• At 5% growth rate, supply will last 86 years! (there's that silly exponential thingie again!)

Fossil Fuel Production and Consumption Summary

1. Domestic production of crude oil Peaked in 1970 --> consumption has not gone down as a result. This leads to increasing realiance on Imported Oil. In 1970 we imported 23% of Oil; in 1995 we imported 55%

2. Domestic production of Natural Gas Peaked in 1973 --> we do not import this due to safety problems.

3. Consumption of oil steadily increases to 1977 then levels/drops until due to higher prices. Fuel effeciency and energy conservation make steady progress from 1977--1986 until 1986 sees oil price collapse and consumption now growing again.

4. Consumption of natural gas is flat. We don't import and can no longer produce enough.

5. 1970 --> 26% imports; 1977 --> 52% ; 1989 --> 46% ; 1995 --> 55% : This could all be reduced significantly if the average fuel economy of a US car was 40 mpg.

6. Cost of Gasoline reflects a lot of priorities!

Today's Price of Oil

Oil Spills 'R Us

What about Discovery of New Oil Reserves?

OFF SHORE OIL

OFF Shore Site

The Global Market

Economics of Off Shore Rigs

In general, off shore oil drilling is a very expensive way to recover oil. Will consumers pay for this price? Do large subsidies have to be involved? Is it worth the environmental transport risk?

Getting more out of Alaska: ANWR

Gas injection techniques --> are they really viable?

Injecting natural gas into the frozen earth to build pressure and "push through" additional oil has been applied in the arctic with some success.

SHALE OIL:

• Shale Oil Country

Shale Oil Deposits in the US are found in SW Wyoming, Eastern Utah, and Western Colorado.

Oil Shale contains kerogen which, when burned, can be converted into fuel products. The amount of Shale Oil Deposits are significantly greater than the amount of US petroleum deposits:

• Petroleum: 214 Billion Barrels of Oil (24 Billion left now)
• Shale Oil Equivalent: 2030 Billion Barrels of Oil (10 times more)

Reality Check:

• Economic mining requires a yield of 25 gallons of oil per ton of shale. Only 30% of the known deposit meets this criteria.
• Of that 30%, only 15% (e.g. 80 Billion Barrels) is recoverable under present conditions.
• Refinement of shale oil is quite difficult and requires a huge supply of water in the refinining process. The Shale Oil reservers are located in very arid regions.
• Disposal of the ground of shale is a huge problem. --> lets try heating it in place?

  Bottom line: Shale Oil is not economically viable at this point.

  Here is an opposing viewpoint

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