Silvester

Tau Herculids (73P\Schwassmann-Wachmann 3'ids) in 2022
31.05.2022 3:11 UT. Vertical encounter with 1892-1941 trails. During
the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to 50 is
expected, low brightness. Also some activity up to 20 meteors on ZHR
scale are likely, especially around 15:10 UT. Theoretical radiant:
RA=206.7њ, Dec=+26.0њ, v=11.7 km/s.

31.05.2022 5:15 UT. Vertical encounter with 1979-1995 trails. For the
given period of time the basic model gives meteor activity with ZHRmax
of 600-700 is expected. However, considering that in 1995 the comet
73P broke into several parts, the real activity should be one-two
orders higher, up to 10000-100000 meteors on ZHR scale with high
average brigntness. Theoretical radiant: RA=209.5њ, Dec=+28.0њ, v=12.1
km/s.

26.06.2022 2:58 UT. Vertical encounter with 1930 trail. During the
given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax of 2-3 is expected,
very low brightness. Theoretical radiant: RA=170.0њ, Dec=-10.2њ, v=9.3
km/s.


June Bootids in 2045
22.06.2045 10:26 UT. The Earth encounters with channel of 1957-2008
trails. The most close will be 1976 and 1983 trails. Vertical trails
approach shows a very strong activity outburst with ZHR=1000-2000
meteors, but we don't exclude, that it will reach 5000-7000 meteors.
Brightness will be very high. So far, we have a good chance for "storm
of slow fireballs". The overall activity period should last from 2 to
19 UT of 22 June. Theoretical radiants: for 1957 trail: RA=211.3њ, Dec=
+54.8њ, v=14.2 km/s; for 1964 trail: RA=212.1њ, Dec=+55.1њ, v=14.4 km/
s; for 1970 trail: RA=212.7њ, Dec=+55.5њ, v=14.5 km/s; for 1976 trail:
RA=213.2њ, Dec=+55.8њ, v=14.6 km/s; for 1983 trail: RA=213.8њ, Dec=
+56.1њ, v=14.7 km/s; for 1989 trail: RA=214.2њ, Dec=+56.3њ, v=14.7 km/
s; for 1996 trail: RA=214.8њ, Dec=+56.6њ, v=14.8 km/s; for 2002 trail:
RA=215.2њ, Dec=+56.8њ, v=14.9 km/s; for 2008 trai: RA=215.8њ, Dec=
+57.0њ, v=15.0 km/s.


Beta Cygnids (103\Hartley 2'ids) in 2055
02.11.2055 9-10 UT. Vertical encounter with 1985, 1997-2049 trails.
During the given period of time meteor activity with ZHRmax up to
1000-1300 is expected, high brightness. Theoretical radiant:
RA=300.0њ, Dec=+29.8њ, v=12.1 km/s.


Leonids in 2094
In 2094, as in the previous year, a number of outburst is expected,
but they will be considerably stronger. First of all, some number of
bright meteor can come from 1466 trail at 11 UT 19 November. After
that a strong outburst from 1899 trail will follow, partially
coinciding with a strong traditional maximum. At 0:47 Ut 20 November
activity will rise to about 800-900 meteors on ZHR scale, brightness
will be much higher than average. The next, less intensive outburst
will be produced by 1932 trail at 7:07 UT 20 November. Activity will
reach 100-150 meteors on ZHR scale, brightness will be much higher
than average. Then a potentially stormy outburst from 1965 trail will
follow. At 11:43 UT 20 November activity will rise to 1300-1400
meteors on ZHR scale, brightness will be much higher than average. It
is very likely, that 2094 will be give the first stormy Leonid return
after 2002.


Draconids in 2098
05.10.2098 4:20 UT. Encounter with a number of trail from 2018-2072
interval, intersecting the Earth's orbit in September-November.
Vertical trails approach gives a stormy maximum of 1500-2000 meteors
on ZHR scale with high average brightness, but we don't exclude much
stronger activity, with ZHR up to 10000-20000 meteors. Due to high
average brightness we expect very intensive fireball activity.
Theoretical radiants: for 2018 trail: RA=263.0њ, Dec=+51.1њ, v=19.1 km/
s; for 2025 trail: RA=263.1њ, Dec=+51.9њ, v=19.4 km/s; for 2031 trail:
RA=263.2њ, Dec=+52.1њ, v=19.4 km/s; for 2038 trail: RA=263.1њ, Dec=
+52.0њ, v=19.4 km/s; for 2045 trail: RA=263.1њ, Dec=+52.0њ, v=19.4 km/
s; for 2051 trail: RA=263.1њ, Dec=+52.0њ, v=19.4 km/s; for 2058 trail:
RA=263.1њ, Dec=+51.9њ, v=19.4 km/s; for 2065 trail: RA=263.0њ, Dec=
+51.9њ, v=19.4 km/s; for 2072 trail: RA=262.9њ, Dec=+51.7њ, v=19.3 km/s.

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В течение января ISON изгоняла 122 000 тонн каждую минуту хвоста

после того, как ISON приплыл мимо нас, земля находится на орбитальной траектории, которая пройдет через след частицы кометы (тот, который ISON оставил позади, когда это приближалось к солнцу и это случайно встретит или вокруг 12 января - 15, 2014
ISON оставил след к 1 ноября, в пятне, где земля транзитом середину января, только 10 - 11 недель спустя.

Айсониды / Isonids
класс ..
цвет ..
доп. характеристики:
- лучшее время наблюдения 22:00 LDT (Northern hemisphere 45њ North) ..
- радиант расположен вблизи Al'dzhabkhakh (30-Eta Leonis, η Leonis, 3.48m.) ..
родительское тело - комета C/2012 S1 (ISON) ..
время действия 10 - 15.01
мах. 12.1
радиант RA = 152.4њ(10:10), Dec = +16.4њ, λ = 295њ, V = 56 км/сек, m = ..
суточный дрейф RA ~ ..њ, Dec ~ ..њ, r = ..
ZHR = ..
==============

Самая перспективная из них - C/2007 Q3 (Siding Spring), так как, по прогнозам ее блеск может достигнуть 10m. в 2009 - 2010 годах ..
На картах указаны местоположения комет на момент обнаружения ..

__________________
Альманах ..