Äîêóìåíò âçÿò èç êýøà ïîèñêîâîé ìàøèíû. Àäðåñ îðèãèíàëüíîãî äîêóìåíòà : http://www.planetarium-cc.ru/Bondiana.43N.pdf Äàòà èçìåíåíèÿ: Mon Feb 8 00:09:37 2010 Äàòà èíäåêñèðîâàíèÿ: Mon Oct 1 20:23:36 2012 Êîäèðîâêà: Ïîèñêîâûå ñëîâà: mercury surface

, ( , ). ( ), , , . - , 2007 . «» - « », , . ?





( . , )
, . , «» , , . (Has vo Storch), Climate Research, (James Saiers), Geophysical Research Letters (GRL). ( ), GRL . , «» . GRL ( ) , , . . . , , , , . , , Weather. , « . . . », , . , . Nature (2004 .) XX . « XX , , ». «» , , .

,

: . ­ , . , ­ ( 2006 .) ( 2008 .).

, ,
, , . , , XX ., () , . , -. , , . . (deiers), , . , .

17



2009 . , IP , « » (Real Climate, . 1) , (Climate Research Uit at the Uiversity of Easter Aglia). , , , 13 . « » , « » (The Air Vet, . 1). , , , IP-, « » (Climate Audit, . 1). , . , (, ) , . (Phil Joes), , «» (to hide) «» (trick), . « » , , ,

. .

, (trick) (to hide) 1960 . (. 2). , «» , , , «» (Itergovermetal Pael o Climate Chage, IPCC, www.ipcc.ch), . , , . 1. . , , . 2. ,

, . , ,

­ (Gavi Schmidt), (Caspar Amma), (Rasmus Beestad) (Michael Ma) (Raymod Bradley). , . , , , , . «» (The Air Ve t, http://ocosesus.wordpress. com) , « » (Climate Audit, www.climateaudit.org) (Steve McItyre). , . «» «» . , , . , , , ( « »), , .
14

1. « » (www.realclimate.org) -

. 1. , «», IPCC 2001 . (. SPM-10b ). 1860- -, 1860 2000 . ­ , 2000 . ­ . . , , ( , ­ ). 3. . , , , . .

«» ?
«» « ». . , , , . , «» (. . 1) , : «» 1860 ., ( , ), «», . , . .

«»
« » ? , IPCC ( ) . , , , . , «» . , , «», ­ . . ()

« » 24 (43)




. IPCC. , , IPCC, C, . , , , , . , IPCC, C, . CRU : « 25 . , ?». , , 20 , « », . IPCC (., , http://dotsub.com/view/19f9c335-b023-4a409453-a98477314bf2) ­ , . ­ (http://clihttp://cli:// matesciece.et/images/PDs/globalwarmig2.pdf). , , , «» . , IPCC . , . IPCC , . . . . . 1 2000 . IPCC (2001 .), , . 2001 ., XXI . 2001 . (. . 2, CRU), 2001 . . , IPCC , . , . IPCC: 15-20 , XX ., , (. «» .1). , ( ), 1970- , XX . ( ). , . , , 10 , , , . , , ­ , , .. 2100 .?



, , , , . , ? , : - · , . ; -

2. rom: Phil Joes To: ray bradley, ma @xxxxx.xxx, mhughes@xxxx.xxx Subject: Diagram for WMO Statemet Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 13:31:15 +0000 Cc: k.briffa@xxx.xx.xx,t.osbor @xxxx. xxx Dear Ray, Mike ad Malcolm, Oce Tim's got a diagram here we'll sed that either later today or first thig tomorrow. I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of addig i the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 owards) ad from 1961 for Keith's to hide the declie. Mike's series got the aual lad ad marie values while the other two got April-Sept for NH lad N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999 for NH combied is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998. Thaks for the commets, Ray. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Joes Climatic Research Uit Telephoe +44 (0) xxxxx School of Evirometal Scieces ax +44 (0) xxxx Uiversity of East Aglia Norwich Email p.joes@xxxx.xxx NR4 7TJ UK « » The paper i questio is the Ma , Bradley ad Hughes (1998) Nature paper o the origial multiproxy temperature recostructio, ad the `trick' is just to plot the istrumetal records alog with recostructio so that the cotext of the recet warmig is clear. Scietists ofte use the term "trick" to refer to a "a good way to deal with a problem", rather tha somethi g that is "secret", ad so there is othig problematic i this at all. As for the `declie', it is well kow that Keith Briffa's maximum latewood tree rig desity proxy diverges from the temperature records after 1960 (this is more commoly kow as the "divergece problem" ­ see e.g. the recet discussio i this paper [www.realclimate.org/idex.php/archives/2008/09/progress-imille ial-reco structio s]) a d has bee discussed i the literature sice Briffa et al i Nature i 1998 (Nature, 391, 678-682). Those authors have always recommed ot usig the post 1960 part of their recostructio, ad so while `hidig' is probably a poor choice of words (si ce it is `hidde' i plai sight), ot usig the data i t h e p l o t i s c o mp l e t e l y a p p r o p r i a t e , a s is further research to uderstad why this happes.
· , ; · , ; · , , , ; · , . , , . ? , , , . . , . , , . . (Briffa) IPCC: « IPCC, C, ».


!
: , . : , . ­ , . , , , , . . , . . -1: « , . , , ». , ? -. . , , ­ ! , « ». , , . : , , . , ­ , : , , , , . 40 % . , , , - . , ­ : , «» ­ . «» , , . , ! , , , . , - . ? ! «-», , - , : « . , . , . , . , . , . » .. , : « ». -! , , ­ , . , , , . , : ­ « ». , , , , , ! , : « , ; , ». , , , . , , , ­ , ­ ! , , , . 1 , « »
15



. 2. , , 160 , CRU (www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif).
8 2009 .