Äîêóìåíò âçÿò èç êýøà ïîèñêîâîé ìàøèíû. Àäðåñ îðèãèíàëüíîãî äîêóìåíòà : http://www.mso.anu.edu.au/~bessell/FTP/NCRIS.pdf Äàòà èçìåíåíèÿ: Tue Aug 29 10:47:50 2006 Äàòà èíäåêñèðîâàíèÿ: Tue Oct 2 01:06:06 2012 Êîäèðîâêà: Ïîèñêîâûå ñëîâà: arp 220

NATIONAL COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURE STRATEGY

Investment Plan
For the research capability

Radio and optical astronomy v2.2
August 23 2006


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Version 1.0 1.1 1.2 2.0 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.1 2.2

Date 31 June 7 July 31 July 17 August 18 19 21 22 23 24 A A A A A A ug ug ug ug ug ug us us us us us us t t t t t t

Comments Initial version distributed to community for comments Progress report submitted to NCRI S Included summary section and section on data management Revised invest ment profile bas ed on NCRIS feedback. Revised contributions from proponents. Minor editing of infrastructure c ases Inclusion of further items on GMT and AAO regional benefits Addition of input from Governance WG Further edits from proponents Further edits from proponents Financial tables included, updated organization charts


3 INSTRUCTI ONS Purpos e This Invest ment Plan is to be c ompleted in res pec t of funding to support Australian res earc h infrastructure under the National Collaborative Researc h Infrastructure Strategy (NCRIS). Guidance on issues related to the dev elopment of this Invest ment Plan can be found in the NCRI S Roadmap and NCRIS Inv estment Framework. GST The Department will not provide funding to cov er any amounts of GST incurred by any Party to the Investment Plan in circ umstanc es where the applicant is entitled to claim input tax credits for those GST amounts. Therefore, budget figures should be the GST exclusive costs of all items in res pect of which any Party is entitled to an input tax credit. Confidential Information No confidential information should be inc luded in this Invest ment Plan. If it is considered necessary to provide c ertain confidential inf ormation to the Depart ment or the NCRI S Committee in association wit h this Invest ment Plan, then only a non-c onfidential summary explaining the nature and owners hip of the information s hould be provided in Attachment J. DEST will then contact relev ant parties to obtain access to the confidential information in an appropriat e manner. Consideration of Invest ment Plans Investment Plans will only be c onsidered by the NCRIS Committee and DEST if they have been prepared by the Facilitator identified for the relev ant NCRI S Research Capability.


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CONTENTS Part One Part Two Part Three Part Four Part Five Part Six Fac ilitator's Declaration Overview Research Infrastructure Access and Pricing Ownership and Management Implementation Strategy and Business Case

Attachments A B C D E F G H I J K List of assets Constitution / Memorandum of Underst anding Organisation charts Curric ulum Vitae for key personnel Implementation strat egy Financial statements Risk management strategy Letters of commit ment Further infrastructure needs Confidential inf ormation Other, as required


5 PART ONE ­ FACI LITATOR' S DECLARATI ON

I, [Facilitator's name], confirm that I have prepared this Investment Plan in accordance wit h the NCRI S principles as set out in the NCRIS Inv est ment Framework.

............................................... Signed Brian J Boy le ............................................... Name 7 September 2006 ............................................... Date


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PART TWO - OVERVIEW Details of the or ganisation that will contr act with the Commonwealth: Organisation Name: Ultimate parent organisation (if appropriate): Organisation Type (please select one of the following) - Higher Educ ational institution; - Australian Government research institution; - State or territory researc h institution; - Privat e sector research organis ation; - Other (Pleas e state) Contact Officer (name and position held): Phone number: Fax number: Email Address: Websit e: Physical Address: Postal Address for all corres pondenc e: Astr onomy Research Australia Ltd


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Details of all other or ganisati ons that will contr ibute r esources to this I nvestment Pl an: Organisation Name: Organisation Type (please select one of the following) - Higher Educ ational institution; - Australian Government research institution; - State or territory researc h institution; - Privat e sector research organis ation; - Other (Pleas e state) Contact Officer det ails (pleas e include Name, Position, Phone Number and Email Address): Organisation Name: Organisation Type (please select one of the following) - Higher Educ ational institution; - Australian Government research institution; - State or territory researc h institution; - Privat e sector research organis ation; - Other (Pleas e state) Contact Officer det ails (pleas e include Name, Position, Phone Number and Email Address): Organisation Name: Organisation Type (please select one of the following) - Higher Educ ational institution; - Australian Government research institution; - State or territory researc h institution; - Privat e sector research organis ation; - Other (Pleas e state) Contact Officer det ails (pleas e include Name, Position, Phone Number and Email Address):


8 Fundi ng Summary: Table 1: Outline of the overall funding (GST exclusive) for the Inv est ment Plan: Table 2: Summary of the contributions to be made by eac h participant organisation: (Tables 1 and 2 c ombined, as Table 2 is basically a sub-t otal that feeds in to Table 1)
Organisation NCRIS ANU Members ARC Cash Total In-kind Total Cash Total Cash In-kind Total CSIRO GSKA MNRF UNSW WA Govt Total In-kind Total In-kind Total In-kind Total In-kind Total $15,612,898 $2,222,243 $2,222,243 $3,920,000 $3,920,000 $4,614,655 $4,614,655 $62,500 $62,500 $125,000 $125,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $19,056,910 $4,500,000 $4,500,000 $22,014,758 $3,500,000 $3,500,000 $26,707,458 $15,247,661 2006/07 $3,433,500 $3,433,500 $1,300,000 $1,300,000 $60,000 $60,000 $164,300 $164,300 $867,000 $936,543 $1,803,543 $6,280,000 $6,280,000 $889,000 $7,630,000 $7,630,000 $911,000 $7,330,000 $7,330,000 $933,000 $4,840,000 $4,840,000 $174,158 $174,158 $889,000 $184,605 $184,605 $911,000 $195,681 $195,681 $933,000 2007/08 $8,684,067 $8,684,067 2008/09 $8,821,600 $8,821,600 2009/10 $14,781,853 $14,781,853 2010/11 $9,278,980 $9,278,980 Total $45,000,000 $45,000,000 $1,300,000 $1,300,000 $778,744 $778,744 $3,600,000 $3,158,786 $6,758,786 $30,000,000 $30,000,000 $4,614,655 $4,614,655 $187,500 $187,500 $10,000,000 $10,000,000 $98,639,685

Table 3: Breakdown of expenditure (the totals should match those in Table 1):
Type Expense - Inter national Access Expense - O per ating Expenses - C apital Grand Total 2006/07 -$6,464,898 -$3,878,000 -$5,270,000 -$15,612,898 2007/08 -$3,423,210 -$3,185,033 -$11,200,000 -$17,808,243 2008/09 -$3,766,000 -$5,088,092 -$13,130,000 -$21,984,092 2009/10 -$3,828,666 -$5,116,792 -$17,730,000 -$26,675,458 2010/11 -$3,121,833 -$4,647,161 -$8,790,000 -$16,558,994 Total -$20,604,607 -$21,915,078 -$56,120,000 -$98,639,685


9 Additional Tables Table 4: Break down of revenue per facility and organisation
Facility 6.19% Gemini Funding ARC Cash In-kind Total GSKA MNRF Total NCRIS Total AAO Total ARA Members NCRIS Total Gemini additional Total GMT ANU NCRIS Total GMT/ PILOT/8m Total MIRA CSIRO NCRIS WA Govt Total PILOT ARC NCRIS UNSW Total Grand Total In-kind Total Cash Total In-kind Total In-kind Total Cash Total In-kind Total $4,420,000 $80,000 $80,000 $500,000 $500,000 $62,500 $62,500 $642,500 $15,612,898 $500,000 $500,000 $125,000 $125,000 $625,000 $19,056,910 $22,014,758 $26,707,458 $15,247,661 $3,920,000 $3,920,000 $500,000 $500,000 In-kind Total Cash Total Cash Total Cash Total GSKA MNRF NCRIS Cash Total Cash Total $4,216,898 $950,000 $950,000 $950,000 $60,000 $60,000 $183,500 $183,500 $243,500 In-kind Total $2,540,000 $2,540,000 $2,540,000 $1,300,000 $1,300,000 $1,300,000 $1,300,000 $2,600,000 NCRIS Cash Total $358,593 $358,593 $358,593 $6,280,000 $6,280,000 $1,700,000 $1,700,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $9,980,000 $358,594 $358,594 $358,594 $7,630,000 $7,630,000 $2,200,000 $2,200,000 $4,500,000 $4,500,000 $14,330,000 $358,594 $358,594 $358,594 $7,330,000 $7,330,000 $8,400,000 $8,400,000 $3,500,000 $3,500,000 $19,230,000 $11,240,000 $358,594 $358,594 $358,594 $4,840,000 $4,840,000 $6,400,000 $6,400,000 In-kind $2,142,243 $2,142,243 $2,074,655 $2,074,655 $3,168,334 $3,168,334 $4,971,877 $2,720,000 $2,720,000 $2,720,000 $164,300 $164,300 $237,140 $237,140 $401,440 $3,219,666 $3,219,666 $4,108,666 $2,800,000 $2,800,000 $2,800,000 $174,158 $174,158 $243,340 $243,340 $417,498 $3,273,666 $3,273,666 $4,184,666 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $184,605 $184,605 $249,593 $249,593 $434,198 $1,214,500 $1,214,500 $2,147,500 $1,050,000 $1,050,000 $1,050,000 $195,681 $195,681 $255,886 $255,886 $451,567 2006/07 2007/08 $867,000 $936,543 $1,803,543 $889,000 $911,000 $933,000 2008/09 $889,000 2009/10 $911,000 2010/11 $933,000 Total $3,600,000 $3,078,786 $6,678,786 $2,074,655 $2,074,655 $10,876,166 $10,876,166 $19,629,607 $10,020,000 $10,020,000 $10,020,000 $778,744 $778,744 $1,169,459 $1,169,459 $1,948,203 $2,540,000 $2,540,000 $2,540,000 $1,300,000 $1,300,000 $1,300,000 $1,300,000 $2,600,000 $1,434,375 $1,434,375 $1,434,375 $30,000,000 $30,000,000 $19,200,000 $19,200,000 $10,000,000 $10,000,000 $59,200,000 $80,000 $80,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $187,500 $187,500 $1,267,500 $98,639,685


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Table 5: Break down of expenditure per facility
Facility 6.19% Gemini Transaction Type Expense International Access Expense Oper ating Total Expense Oper ating Expenses - C apital Total Expense Oper ating Total Expense International Access Total Expense Oper ating Total Expense Oper ating Total Expense Oper ating Expenses - C apital Total Expense Oper ating Expenses - C apital Total Total -$4,420,000 -$4,420,000 -$142,500 -$500,000 -$642,500 -$15,612,898 2006/07 -$3,924,898 -$292,000 -$4,216,898 -$600,000 -$350,000 -$950,000 -$243,500 -$243,500 -$2,540,000 -$2,540,000 -$2,600,000 -$2,600,000 -$358,593 -$358,593 -$1,000,000 -$8,980,000 -$9,980,000 -$125,000 -$500,000 -$625,000 -$17,808,243 -$21,984,092 -$26,675,458 -$16,558,994 -$358,594 -$358,594 -$3,000,000 -$11,330,000 -$14,330,000 -$358,594 -$358,594 -$3,000,000 -$16,230,000 -$19,230,000 -$358,594 -$358,594 -$3,000,000 -$8,240,000 -$11,240,000 2007/08 -$3,423,210 -$300,000 -$3,723,210 -$1,000,000 -$1,720,000 -$2,720,000 -$401,440 -$401,440 2008/09 -$3,766,000 -$312,000 -$4,078,000 -$1,000,000 -$1,800,000 -$2,800,000 -$417,498 -$417,498 2009/10 -$3,828,666 -$324,000 -$4,152,666 -$1,000,000 -$1,500,000 -$2,500,000 -$434,198 -$434,198 2010/11 -$3,121,833 -$337,000 -$3,458,833 -$500,000 -$550,000 -$1,050,000 -$451,567 -$451,567 Total -$18,064,607 -$1,565,000 -$19,629,607 -$4,100,000 -$5,920,000 -$10,020,000 -$1,948,203 -$1,948,203 -$2,540,000 -$2,540,000 -$2,600,000 -$2,600,000 -$1,434,375 -$1,434,375 -$10,000,000 -$49,200,000 -$59,200,000 -$267,500 -$1,000,000 -$1,267,500 -$98,639,685

AAO

ARA Gemini additional

GMT GMT/ PILOT/8m

MIRA

PILOT


11 Proj ect Descripti on In no more than five pages, please provide a s ummary of the Inv estment Plan that addresses the recommendations of the NCRI S Roadmap and the Invest ment Criteria set out in the NCRIS Investment Framework. Alignment with NCRIS roadmap The NCRIS roadmap states: For Aus t ralia to remain a major international cont ributor to ast ronomy it is es s ential that w e c ontinue to have a st rong pres enc e in leading-edge international inf ras t ructure, both the current and next generations. Aus t ralia also needs to maintain the domestic inf ras t ruc ture w hic h c onstitutes the bulk of obs erving capacit y f or Au st ralian ast ronomers. This balanc ed strat egy is implement ed in this plan by investing in the following domestic and international optic al and radio infrastructure, identified as highest priorities in the communities strategic plan New Horizons: The Australian Astronomy Dec adal Plan 2006-2015. Thes e are: · · · · · Anglo-Australian Obs ervatory Gemini telescopes (6. 19% share of the two 8m-diameter telesc opes) Mileura International Radio Array (MI RA): A pathfinder for the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) Additional acc ess up to the equiv alent of 15% of an 8m-class telescopes including the effective 12. 4% from Gemini Design and development for the next generation of optical/infrared telescopes; the Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT) and PILOT.

These reflect the strat egic infrastructure priorities laid out in the NCRI S roadmap viz. The Aust ralian ast ronomy community has identified its priorities f or inf rast ructure investment in the Aust ra l ian Ast ronomy Decada l Plan 2006-2015. Consistent w ith that plan, the Committee c onsiders that the priority areas f or NCRIS investment in optical and radio ast ronomy should be (in no speci fic order): o Additional support f or the Anglo- Aust ralian Obs er v atory ( A AT optical/inf rared teles c ope); o Delivery o f the Square Kilometre A rray (SKA ) Phase 1 radio teles c ope f a cility; and o A c c es s to the equivalent of 20% o f an 8m-clas s teles c ope through the existing Gemini partners hip and through ne w teles c ope and inst rument agreements. The plan also propos es the st rategic inves tments to be made in the next -generation of optical/IR f a cilities to provide valuable options in the future development of any c as e f or Landmark-s c ale inf rast ructure in this domain as rec ommended by the NCRIS committee in the st rategic roadmap viz. The Committee considers the National Committee of A st ronomy's rec ommendation that a Giant Magellan Teles c ope Landmark Facility Committee be established by relevant government, busines s and academy partners to w o rk to w a rd s Aust ralian participation in the GMT consortium has merit and encourages the parties to consider it.


12 Excellenc e in Australian researc h: NCRI S Invest ment Criterion 1 Astronomy is one of Australia's highest impact sciences (Australian Scienc e and Tec hnology At a Glance, DEST, 2004), wit h internationally ack nowledged strengths in ground-based optic al and radio astronomy, backed by theory and computation. In the past dec ade, Australian astronomers have play ed leading roles in major discov eries, inc luding the acceleration of the universe and the existenc e of dark energy, a new type of galaxy, a unique double pulsar, and planets orbiting other stars. The impact of Australian astronomy has ris en signific antly compared to the rest of the world over the past 5 years. Ov er the period 1994-98, papers with Australian authors rec eived an average of 5.5 citations (cf. world average 5.0); by the period 1998-2002, this had risen to 9.9 citations (cf. world average 6. 8) [Source: Australian Astronomy Decadal Plan 2006-2015, adapted from ANU Capabilities and Performance St atement 2004]. This has been driv en by the capability's access to world-class infrastructure, principally the 3.9m optic al/IR Anglo-Australian Telesc ope, the radio telescopes of the Australia Telescope National Facility and, more recently, the t win 8m Gemini optical/I R telescopes. Each of the components of this plan offers Australian astronomy either an internationally unique capability in s ome valuable sens e (e.g. the AAO as the world's fastest survey spectroscopy machine, PILOT as one of the world's most sensitive mid-infrared telesc opes) or acc ess to a worldbest facility (Gemini now, MI RA in five year's time, GMT in 10 years and SKA in 15 years). The combined suite of facilities encompass ed by this research capability addresses both fundament al (dark matter and dark energy) and exciting (black holes and planets) topics in astronomy and physics. Access policies and c apacity to promote collaboration: NCRI S Invest ment Criterion 2 The principles of merit-based time assignment and effective data management systems are embedded in the infrastructure proposed in this investment plan. These are already, or will be, facilitated by integrated propos al and data management systems, including WWW-bas ed telescope-time application and peer-review proc edures, comprehensiv e on-line archiv es, availability of pipeline data-reduction tools and res earc her access to reduc ed data products and catalogues. In astronomy, forefront science can only be done in cooperation with scientists from around the world and scientists work ing in different wavelength regions. The substantial benefits that accrue from such linkages inc lude acc ess to cutting-edge data and technologies, lev eraging of the scientific funding of larger nations, and inc reased international c ollaboration. Australian astronomy has a strong c ulture of international link age ­ it leads the nation in the fraction of publications produced with int ernational collaborators, its on-s hore facilities are in high demand from int ernational users, and all its new f acilities propos ed in this plan will be built with international partners: · 77% of Australian astronomy papers over the past decade have international co-authors; · 40% of the us ers of Australian national facilities come from ov erseas; · 33% of Australian astronomy citations aris e from international astronomy facilities to whic h Australia makes no financial contribution (cf. ~5% of Australian astronomy s pending devot ed to int ernational facilities). Facility O w ne r s hip and Management Structure: NCRIS Investment Criterion 3 A central component of the management of the NCRIS constituted to provide effect Board capable of taking the plan is the establishment of a single Gov ernanc e body for the invest ment; Astronomy Res earc h Australia Ltd (ARA). ARA is ive, broad-ranging oversight of the NCRI S program, with an expert strategic decisions ov er the period of the NCRIS plan.

ARA will give the Australian government a single point of accountability, initially in the gov ernanc e of any NCRIS invest ment in astronomy, and potentially growing to include other items of national infrastructure for astronomy.


13 ARA will contract the day -to-day operation of the domestic facilities (AAT, MI RA) to existing Australian organizations (AAO, CSI RO respectively). Both hav e a long-standing rec ord of world'sbest practice in the operation of astronomic al infrastructure. ARA will contract the management of the Australian Gemini Office to AAO, while the signatory for the Gemini Agreement with the international agencies/organisations will remain the ARC-DEST. In the long term, ARA may prov ide a comprehensive solution for the funding and management of national astronomy facilities, simplifying the complex existing arrangements while offering sufficient vers atility to interf ace Australia with the next generation of int ernational facilities. As such, the long-term rationalis ation of the infrastruc tures supporting Australian astronomical research potentially enabled by the establishment of ARA may prov e to be one of the most valuable outc omes of the NCRI S process. Although this invest ment plan propos es that the ARA costs be shared bet ween NCRI S and the members, the long-term s ustainability may be best guaranteed by members contributing a significantly larger fraction, up to 100%, as ARA grows over the 2006-11 period. Implementation Strategy and Effective Business Case: NCRI S Criterion 4 Wit hin its $45M indic ative envelope, the inv est ment plan proposes significant invest ment in MI RA ($19.2M), AAO ($10M) and Gemini ($6.9-10.6M). Furt her, it proposes initial limited (~$1M) invest ment in a PILOT design study and in the firs t year of the design and development phas e (DDP) for GMT. The plan also propos es a number of strategic options (up to $5M) in the optic al domain. This includes furt her invest ment in the GMT DDP, PILOT construction and/or additional 8m time. The breadth of this plan reflects the maturity of the field's science and infrastruct ure, and the comprehensiv e stock-taking and strat egising of the Decadal Plan process. The `c onditionality' of the strategic options in the plan is a rational and prudent res ponse to the inev itable uncert ainties of a 5-year plan, partic ularly one with int ernational linkages. In particular, the astronomy capability views the initial PILOT and GMT invest ments as central to the success of this `strategic options' strategy. Information obtained from these studies will enable ARA to most effectively evaluate the option (or combination of options) that will max imise the scientific return to the capability and economic/social ret urn to the country. The plan maps out the long-term evolution of a carefully struct ured set of major facilities. These facilities have individual lifetimes of dec ades, from original c oncept, through design, construction, operation and revitalis ation, to ultimat e dec ommis sioning. For the health of Australian astronomy we need to be supporting facilities at all stages of this lifecycle, as indeed this plan does. Specifically, the plan provides for the revitalisation of the AAO, on-going operation and access for Gemini (and perhaps other 8m t elescopes ), the design and development for GMT, PILOT and MI RA, and the construction of MIRA (and, perhaps, PILOT); it also foreshadows the decommissioning of the AAT and de-sc oping of ex isting radio facilities by the time GMT and SKA come int o operation. The proposed infrastructure enables a broad range of scientific inv estigations and s upports the research of essentially the entire optic al and radio astronomy community, as well as having important applications in ot her science areas such as space science and I CT. The strat egy has been developed with a clear rec ognition that Australia's role in int ernational astronomy will be limited by access to funds and it is very muc h in the interests of the wider Australian community that the av ailable funds be directed for max imum impact and value. This has inv olved sober assess ment of those areas in which Australia can be most competitiv e1, the development of a
1

. This has involved the explicit de-pr iotisation of investment in space-based astronomy and in certain ma jor international facilities such as the Atacama Lar ge Millim etre Array.


14 vision of how Australia can exploit thes e areas of competitive advant age to the benefit of all astronomy ­ and turning this into an explicit strategy for the future. The 5-y ear financial plan is secured by strong commit ment of funding from a range of co-investors, and by a planning process designed to ens ure adequate flexibility to deal wit h the uncert ainties inherent in this type of infrastructure planning. This approac h will allow ARA to respond to changing inf ormation ­ on c osts, feasibility, value and revenues ­ to ensure maximum value is obtained from the NCRIS and co-inv estment funds while managing key risks. Us e of optionsbased principles for planning and managing the strategy ­ in a manner analogous to the earlier work done on the SKA Business Case ­ ens ures t hat risk management is integrated into the invest ment process and that the flexibility exists to respond to risks and opport unities as they emerge. Key elements of the strategy ­ es pecially in relation to MI RA, PILOT and GMT ­ are in fact sound invest ments in inf ormation options on which longer term planning for the next generation of large facilities can be based. At the same time, bot h MI RA and PI LOT are seen as extremely valuable infrastructure in their own right that are deliv erable within the time-frame of NCRI S. Involvement in the design phase of GMT will also build capability in relev ant industries and academic depart ments, which may later be exploited in the construction and operational phas es of the telesc ope. From the pers pective of international lev erage, the $45m NCRI S inv estment yields acc ess to $632m [##need to check this figure] in infrastructure proposed over the 5-y ear period 2006-11. The NCRIS invest ment critically enables the Australian astronomers to surmount the participation hurdle in international programs and cons equently exploit the invest ments made by other partners in such large-scale infrastructure. The minimum required scale for competitive user facilities in the 21st century means that dollars inv ested in an international collaborativ e project will often yield better value for money than dollars invest ed in a nationally-bas ed one. It has been possible to establish the longer term viability of the invest ments with a high degree of confidenc e. This is based on financial c ommit ments already made; on high levels of wider interest in access to thes e infrastructure assets that are, and will be for a long time to come, state-of-t heart; and on the presenc e of active markets in trading acc ess rights that offer bot h risk coverage and opportunities to expand involv ement where justified. For these very large infrastructure assets, we have had to assume that a form of continuing gov ernment involv ement would be available beyond 2011.


15 PART THREE ­ RESEARCH I NFRASTRUCTUR E In this part, you are required to show how the proposed infrastructure facilities meet NCRIS Investment Crit erion 1, ie: An i nvestment plan must result i n excellent resear ch infr astructure that addr esses the national requirements of the relevant capability area described in the NCRIS Roadmap. In addressing the criterion, you should fully addres s: · · all issues relevant to Crit erion 1 that are identified in the NCRIS Roadmap; and the requirements of Section 3.1 of the NCRI S Investment Framework `Cont ent of Investment Plans'.

This part should detail all infrastructure that is to be funded by this Invest ment Plan, including any elements that relat e to Platforms for Collaboration. The assets that will be funded by this Invest ment Plan should be detailed in Attac hment A. ............................................................................................ Nati onal Requirements ­ the Austr alian Astr onomy Decadal Plan 2006-15 The Australian astronomy community has been characterized over the last decade by coherent strategic planning ac ross all wavelength bands and sub-disciplines, exemplified by the unified plan for major optical and radio facilities funded under t he MNRF-2 program. In 2005, the Australian astronomic al community mapped out its strategic vision in New Horizons: A Decadal Plan for Australian Astronomy 2006-15. The Dec adal Plan identifies the national requirements relating to astronomy and propos es a strategic roadmap that addresses these requirements and is well supported across the astronomy community. Although the Decadal Plan pre-dates the finalis ation of the NCRI S process, the strat egic aims of bot h the Dec adal Plan and the NCRIS proc ess are highly aligned. This inc ludes a strong foc us on world-class scienc e outc omes and on a national, collaborative (integrat ed) approach to ac hiev ing those outcomes, and equal emphasis on laying the foundations for the infrastructure of next dec ade in the optical and radio domains. NCRI S funding has a central role to play in delivering the Decadal Plan strategy, and the infrastructure invest ments propos ed in this Invest ment Plan are consistent wit h the strategy proposed in the Decadal Plan. Nati onal Requirements ­ the NCRIS context · Infrastructure is a critical component of an obs erv ationally led capability such as astronomy. In this area, the Dec adal Plan highlighted the following key strategies. o o o A strong focus on engagement in international collaborations Investment in the next generation of front-rank infrastructure in both optical and radio astronomy. Maint ain appropriate inv estment levels in existing world-class infrastruct ure until new infrastructure is av ailable, followed by reprioritisation of res ources.

Nati onal Requirements - Science Focus The primary focus of most astronomy researc h ­ and the proposed applic ation of the res earch infrastructure for whic h NCRI S support is being sought ­ is knowledge deriv ed for its own sake.


16 Knowledge of the universe is a public good, one in whic h there is substantial interest and whic h provides cultural value, perhaps the greatest being the ins piration of young minds to think scientifically and to ent er scientific and engineering careers. While we have identified scope for signific ant tangible benefits from the proposed infrastructure inv estment, we are not arguing that this should constitute the primary rationale. We are propos ing s upport for truly excellent science direct ed at the most fundamental questions about our univ erse. The Dec adal Plan sets out, and discusses, nine big questions y et to be satisfactorily ans wered, where the emerging tools of modern astronomy have good prospects for making a major contribution: o What is the nature of the dark energy and dark matter that appears to make up about 95% of the univers e? o How and when did the first stars form in the early univ erse? o How are galaxies assembled and how do they ev olve? o Is our understanding of gravity correct? o How do the super-massiv e black holes in the c ores of galaxies work ? o What is the origin and ev olution of cos mic magnetism? o How do stars and planet ary systems form? o How common are planetary systems and c onditions suitable for lif e? o How do stars produc e and recycle the element al building blocks of life? All thes e questions are conc erned wit h the basic conditions that shape, and have shaped, us and the world in which we live. The same astronomy that probes the limits of our universe is als o probing the limits of our understanding of many of the laws of physics and the very nat ure of matter and energy. The s uite of infrastructure proposed for inv estment will enable Australian astronomers to continue to make world-leading contributions to ans wering thes e questions. Nati onal Requirements - I nter nati onal focus The Invest ment Plan foc us is on a s mall group of major researc h infrastructure inv estments that will support Australia continuing to play a key role at the forefront of int ernational astronomy. Astronomy is a truly international science that is now highly dependent on internationally funded and operat ed major infrastructure facilities. Sophisticated systems for sharing costs and for managing access to ens ure that the best scienc e is undertaken by the best scientists ­ wit h appropriate technical s upport in, and development of, the facilities ­ have been developed by the international astronomy c ommunity 2. Over the pas t 30+ years, the Anglo-Australian Telescope has been an Australian-bas ed ex ample of this approac h in optical astronomy, while the ATNF has served as the ex emplar in radio astronomy for almost 20 years. Closely analogous systems apply to the Gemini telescopes and are planned for the Giant Magellan Telescope, the Ant arctic PILOT telescope and the Mileura International Radio Array (MI RA). The principles embodied in thes e systems closely parallel the vision developed in the NCRI S Roadmap ­ in relation to both the collaborativ e design and development of facilities and the bas is on whic h access is provided. Several principles hav e been central to the development of the inv estment proposition set out in this document: o o A predominant consideration through the strategy development has been its focus on supporting exc ellence in scienc e ­ int ernationally competitive, involving deep international collaboration and in many cas es operating at the world leading edge ­ in astronomy. The strategy als o recognises the scientific and ec onomic benefits of combining support for Australian facilities, with obtaining acc ess to large international facilities at the best offshore sites. Thus we can maintain Australia's high international standing in astronomic al science across many wav elengt h bands.

2

77% of A ustra lian astronomy papers over the past d ecade have internationa l co-authors (New Horiz ons: A D ecadal Plan For A ustralian a stronomy 2006-2015, A ustralian Academ y of S ciences)


17 o o We focus on areas where Australia has an established pres enc e and capability in international astronomy of a very high order, and thus real competitiv e adv antage Excellenc e in the skill set is a central element of competitive advantage in a field that is increasingly competing for access to facilities located around the world. Australia has in the past proven highly competitiv e in this way, and a k ey element of the strategy is designed to maint ain this competitive advant age. These skills include those relev ant to the costeffective delivery of capability to telescopes via s mart instrumentation and data capt ure and analysis capabilities. In two items of propos ed infrastructure, one currently more dev eloped than the ot her, Australia appears highly competitiv e in the location of pros pectiv e new facilities: o A next generation radio telesc ope, the Mileura Int ernational Radio Array (MI RA), capable of internationally competitiv e scienc e breakthroughs, and with good pros pects for enhancing Australia's competitive advantage for siting the propos ed Square Kilometre Array facility in Australia. The strategy has been designed to deliv er a major upgrade to Australian radio astronomy capability while being consistent wit h the cost-effective/risk-mitigated option of progressiv e upgrading of the inv estment out to the full SKA. The strategy maximizes Australia's pros pects for playing a leading role in the technology dev elopment in SKA in addition to being selected as the site for this facility. o The first major Antarctic optical/infrared telescope, with Australia well placed to support such a facility in the Australian Antarctic Territory, wit h the viability of this strategy having been enhanced recently with the c onstruction of airport facilities. Involvement through NCRI S in the GMT design phase will provide opportunities to showcas e existing R&D infrastructure within Australian industry, in high-technology areas where there is increasing international activity and contract opportunities. In this context, Australian astronomy is most useful tool for the nation, due to the discipline's strong international links in the areas of interest. International exposure through the GMT DDP proc ess will create enhanced opportunities for Australian industry to win c ontracts in ELT design and construction, bot h through the GMT itself, and, in addition, other ELT projects under consideration. . The GMT offers opportunities for Australian business both in niche high tec hnology areas, and also in high-level technology int egration, project management and systems engineering; winning c ontracts in these areas, which are Australian strengths, will ex pand capability through involv ement in a challenging int ernational project. Thus the initial modest invest ment proposed through NCRI S has the pot ential to return substantially enhanc ed benefit to Australian R&D c apability and the economy. In this Invest ment Plan, we propose inv est ment in the first year of the GM T DDP as a priority item for expenditure. This will provide Australian industry and ac ademia with the res ourc es required to coordinate and demonstrat e Australian R&D capability in the area of ELT des ign and development. Such inv est ment is also necess ary to inform future decisions about further GMT engagement, both in the .current design phase and hence in the ensuing construction phas e, for whic h funding will have to be sought beyond the NCRIS proc ess.

o

o

o

The strategy will deliv er the collectiv e capability to continue to compete and contribut e at the leading edges of international astronomy, while ensuring that the full range of capabilities Australia offers in relation to future astronomy ­ from sites f or telesc opes, through main instrument design and other instrumentation through to the planning and execution of great scienc e using the instruments ­ is able to compete on merit. Under these circ umstanc es, we fully ex pect Australia to continue to `punch well above its weight class' in astronomy for many years to come. The strategy as developed does offer very substantial opportunities for leverage. NCRIS invest ment will mak e significant contribution to building Australia's case as a loc ation for, and designer and builder of, future very large astronomy facilities that will draw on international funding. Australian scientists will gain access to int ernationally leading-edge facilities that are only made possible by the lev el of contribution of funds from other c ountries, and by the ability of Australian


18 institutions to bring considerable additional resources to both the planning and the us e of the facilities 3. There are now very large size economies in both optical and radio astronomy. The strategy is designed to exploit thes e economies and the c ommit ment of other countries and other institutions to this major area of research to deliv er a dramatic inc reas e in the capability of the facilities to whic h Australian astronomy has acces s. The pros pects for NCRIS invest ment in radio astronomy are already attracting substantial state and international interest in co-inv est ment in the MI RA facility. The budgeting describes the extent to whic h other funding sources are sought even for the specific infrastructure it ems within the NCRIS funding program. Just as importantly, thes e facilities will add greatly to the strength of the case for even wider leverage in relation to future inv est ments in the SKA, in the Giant Magellan Telescope and in a much larger Antarctic telesc ope. In two of these three c ases, the chanc es of an Australian location being chos en by the int ernational consortia is substantial ­ which is lik ely to increas e the effectiv e level of leverage in relation to tot al Australian benefits. In the third (GMT), an Australian consortium of industry and ac ademia has already formed to coordinate bids that could bring substantial return to the Australian ec onomy, both in overs eas inv est ment, intellectual property and international exposure. Nati onal Requirements ­ Likely Demand and Encour agi ng Collabor ati on The benefits that accrue from the international link ages that are an ess ential component of modern astronomy are substantial, and include access to cutting-edge international instruments, data and technologies, lev eraging the scientific funding of larger nations, and increas ed international collaboration. Australian astronomy has a strongly developed culture of international link age ­ astronomy leads the nation in the fraction of public ations it produces with international collaborators, Australian astronomers us e international facilities, its on-shore facilities are in high demand from int ernational users, and almost all it s next-generation facilities will be built with international partners. The main national optical/infrared facilities for Aus tralian astronomers - Gemini and AAT - have typically been over-subscribed by factors of between 2 and 3 over the past few years; thes e are considered healthy factors for competitiv e facilities by international standards. In the case of the AAT, this demand level under-predicts future Australian requirements because it does not take into account the demand for large-s cale observ ing programs that until rec ently had been not been fully explored. The AAO's announcement of opportunity for Large Observ ing Programs starting in 2006 res ulted in requests for 1500 nights ov er the next 3 years ­ i.e. thes e programs alone over-subsc ribe the telescope by a factor of 1.5. Together with the current level of demand for s maller programs, these large programs will maintain the future over-subscription on the AAT remain at around its current level even as the Australian share of AAT time increases from 50% to 100% over the next 4 years. Demand would be furt her stimulated by the new AAT instrument funded by NCRIS, which will provide new capabilities that address the needs of Australian astronomers in a broad range of fields. The unique capabilities of the full AAT instrument complement, particularly in the area of wide-field survey spectrosc opy, will also encourage international collaborations and provide Australian astronomers wit h leverage for collaborative access to other countries' facilities. In the case of Gemini, the current over-subscription rate is clos e to the point of being self-limiting ­ i.e. astronomers would lik e more access but do not find it worthwhile to submit additional, or larger, observing proposals when the ov er-subscription exceeds a fact or approac hing 4. This has been demonstrated by the increas ed level of demand on the occas ions that there hav e been one-off opportunities for Australian astronomers to access additional time on Gemini or other 8m telescopes ­ the amount of available time has increased, but the over-subscription factor has remained roughly constant. Demand for Gemini time is only lik ely to become stronger as Gemini
3

33% of A ustra lian astronomy citations ar ise from internationa l astronom y facilities to which Australia makes no d irect financia l contr ibution (ibid.)


19 introduc es new and more capable instrumentation; the next generation of "As pen" instruments is expect ed to offer powerful new capabilities (very high resolution imaging and massiv ely multiplex spectrosc opy) that are not otherwis e available to Australian astronomers. These instruments will address fundamental science questions (specifically, the formation of planets, the origin of the Galaxy, and the nature of dark energy ) that will be tackled by int ernational c ollaborations in which Australia will play a significant, and in some cas es leading, role. For MIRA, the unique combination of fast mapping speed with high angular res olution ensures that the mid-frequency component of MI RA will provide a surv eying capability at least ten-fold greater than any existing radio telesc ope. National and international demand for this telesc ope is likely to signific antly exceed recent over-subscription rates on the Australia Telescope Compact Array (approx imately 2:1). Within its first year of operation MI RA will produce a cat alogue of HI emission in more than 500,000 galaxies to unprecedented redshifts, while simultaneously cataloguing 10 million continuum sources in the deepest all-sky continuum s urvey to date. Previous catalogues, such as the HIPASS HI galaxy catalogue and particularly the Nort hern VLA Sky Surv ey (NVSS) continuum c atalogue, are among the most highly cited astronomy papers of the past decade (from Astrophysical Data Servic e citations). All indic ations are that with the increasing concentration of large telescopes (including ALMA) in the southern hemisphere, catalogues wit h at least an order of magnitude more sources will carry similar weight. The low-frequency component of MI RA will be opening up an unexplored frequency range and the new science that will be possible with the instrument should ens ure that it is in high demand. There are many Australian institutions already participating to develop the initial stages of this ins trument, which will ensure a trained community able to exploit the instrument when it becomes av ailable through NCRI S funding. The GMT and PILOT components of the astronomy plan are aimed at meeting the ex pected demand for vastly more capable facilities in the next decade, addressing many of the nine Big Questions of the Decadal Plan. GMT offers Australia an appropriat e level of participation in the next generation of `Extremely Large Telesc opes', capable of sensitivities 7 times thos e of existing 8m telesc opes with 3 times the resolving power. When complete, GMT will be one of only two or three Extremely Large Telescopes in the world, capable of imaging extra-s olar planets in their own and reflected light, detecting many of the large black holes in the Univ ers e, and mapping the web of diffuse mat erial that accounts for the lion's share of the normal baryonic material in the Univers e. PILOT offers a parallel path that seeks to ex ploit t he potential of Antarctica as the world's best observing site. The development of Antarctica as a site for future generations of ELTs (or equivalent facilities) is a strategic driver for invest ment in pathfinder facilities such as PILOT. Both GMT and PI LOT will be international collaborations: GMT with leading US institutions, such as Harvard, MIT, Tex as and Arizona and PI LOT wit h major European instit utions. Differing fractional contributions by Australia are being cont emplated for PILOT and GMT. These projects are quite different in scope, and share will not be the only factor that informs the desired lev el of participation. Nati onal Requirements - I ndustr y and Educati on Links Education Astronomy provides a popular and us eful training ground for students of all levels, and Australia's national astronomy facilities provide a valuable educational role within Australia. As Australia's major national optical facilities, the AAO and Gemini support the training of a large fraction of Australian astronomy graduate students: over the past five years, AAO facilities and staff have contributed to the training of 56 res earc h students: 31 PhD students, 8 Honours undergraduates and 17 Summer Sc holars; over the past three years, Gemini has contributed to the training of 18 research students: 16 PhD students and 2 Honours undergraduates. As Gemini matures, the number of Australian students using its facilities is increasing rapidly. Ov er calendar years 20012005, the CSIRO Australia Telescope National Facility supported the training of 51 PhD students, 3 Masters students and 38 ATNF Summer Scholars. A study of the subsequent careers of these students carried out as part of the Australian Astronomy Dec adal Plan, found that for the period 2000­04, some 70% of PhD graduat es in


20 astronomy and astrophysics took their first job in astronomy; of these, a further 70% (i.e. 50% of the total) took their first job ov erseas. The remaining 30% are distributed bet ween teaching, industry and commerce in Australia and non-astronomy jobs ov erseas (the latter being approximately 10% of the total). Only a very s mall proportion are unemployed for any significant period. The 30% of students who leave astronomy for other employ ment, toget her wit h the low unemploy ment rate, reflects the inherent saleability of an astronomy PhD, whose skills in areas such as complex data analysis, information technology and innov ation are highly applic able in business and financ e. A number of the technology - and engineering-oriented students hav e gone on to apply their skills in high-tec h industrial companies. Industry The optical astronomy facilities that are proposed for support by NCRI S hav e a div erse set of links with industry. The astronomical instrumentation programs that form part of the AAO, Gemini and PILOT c omponents inv olve links to a number of high-tec hnology firms, including Auspace (Mitchell, ACT), Prime Optics (Eumundi, QLD), Electro-Optical Systems (Queanbeyan, NSW), BAE Systems Australia Ltd (Adelaide, SA), Broens Engineering (Sydney, NSW), Laserdyne (Brisbane, QLD), Connell Wagner and Sinclair Knight Merz. An import ant opportunity for expanding links with industry, and for prov iding Australian companies with international opportunities for developing their technological ex pertise and showcasing their skills, lies with the Des ign Development Phase of the GMT project. A GMT Industry Working Group has been formed, including EOS, Aus pac e, Sinclair Knight Merz and VIPAC (Adelaide, SA), to map the capabilities of Australian industry to the requirements of the GMT project and identify companies with suitable expertise in areas of the project that Australia is seeking to contribute. Working on the GMT project is likely to involv e Australian companies in c utting-edge tec hnologies in areas suc h as complex technology integration, systems engineering, s mart optics and control systems and provide them with new connections t o leading US tec hnology firms and customers. The GMT project will also provide strong educ ational and research links to some of the best US univ ersities. An example of less conventional transfer of knowledge is that commerc ializ ation of a hydrody namic al code, originally dev eloped in Aust ralia for the study of double stars, for use in motion picture animation ­ including in scenes from The Lord of the Rings. In addition to PILOT's role in astronomy, it could also hav e an important application in extending searc hes for sat ellite debris in low-earth orbit. Dome C's geographic loc ation is close to optimum for detection of polar orbiting and high-inclination satellites and debris, and the long duration of twilight at high latitudes greatly increases the obs ervability of such objects. This is a "space environment" iss ue of growing importanc e, with some 100,000 objects bet ween 1 c m and 10 c m in diameter posing an ever-increasing risk to the space industry. Successful trial observations by PILOT in this mode could lead to the rapid deploy ment of a PI LOT clone dedicated to debris tracking, or a potential long-term role for PILOT once astronomers have mov ed on to larger telescopes. Suc h an application is vitally important to the space insuranc e industry and creates important opportunities for privat e sector co-inv estment. The technological and engineering effort and capability needed to support radio astronomy is driving: o close links bet ween radio astronomy and ICT dev elopments in signal proc essing o developments in remote operations, and o national and international bandwidth upgrades to communications infrastruct ure. Due to its extreme demands for s ensitivity and data proc essing power, future radio astronomy technology repres ents transformational tec hnology for ICT. Involvement in fut ure radio astronomy R&D will link Australia's technologists to the most innov ative in the world in thes e areas, and provide a unique training ground for tomorrow's technicians. 80% of work cited in patents as inspiration for the patents is basic ac ademic res earch.


21 The Australian Electronics Industry Action Agenda has been establis hed in recognition of the need to assist and update the Australian electronics industry. In June 2005 the Electronics Industry Action Agenda I mplementation Group endors ed the SKA as a signature project. With support from AEEMA (t he Australian Electrical and Electronic Manuf acturers' Ass ociation), an "SKA cluster mapping project" has been dev eloped to identify the potential benefits for Australian industry from the SKA-related projects and SKA-related R&D. The radio astronomy projects in Australia are identified as a more stable rev enue stream than v ariable Defence contracts, and so the radio astronomy work can provide a relatively more stable business environment ­ a pre-requisite to successful innov ation. Fiv e SKA cluster events hav e already been held; in Sydney, Perth, Geraldton (to a large loc al audience) and more rec ently Brisbane and Adelaide Ov er 200 company representatives have attended these meetings. Awareness and interest of Australian industry has been raised, with more organisations (eg HP, GHD, SA Government, CMD) seek ing to join the SKA cluster. The Western Australian Government has signalled its intention to be part of the Cluster. Public Understanding of Science Astronomy is a vital part of the scienc e culture of all mankind. It tells us what we know of where we, and our planet, fit into the physical environment of the Univ erse. A pers on deprived of the broad outlines of astronomical k nowledge is as culturally handic apped as one nev er ex pos ed to history, literature, music or art. Astronomy enriches the intellectual liv es of millions. The recent high level of public int erest in the International Ast ronomical Union's definition of a planet provides a prime example of this strong cultural impact. In today's world market plac e, a competitive nation needs its entire population to hav e a basic lev el of scientific literacy. As a visual science, easily ac cessible to amat eur observers, astronomy is a partic ularly effective educ ational tool and stirs scientific curiosity in thous ands of young people every year. Some of thes e go into astronomy res earc h, but many more take their int erest in science into other areas of endeavour, enriching whatev er field they work in. The access ibility of astronomy giv es it a high public profile. This awareness and int erest by the community makes it particularly valuable in demonstrating scienc e in action. Astronomy's appeal makes it a valuable way in whic h to engage and educat e students and the public about science and tec hnology. As a recent ex ample Dr Fred Watson (AAO), was the 2006 winner of the Eurek a Prize for Promoting Understanding of Scienc e By exciting young people's interest in the Univers e and how we study it the astronomic al community and educat ors can tak e an important role in strengthening scientific education and skills in Australia. NCRI S funding for new astronomical f acilities will lead to many new exciting technologies and discov eries. Experienced, well-s upported educ ators can use these to produce stimulating educ ational cas e studies. Relev ant, engaging examples support the effective teac hing of science and technology and will help promote careers in these fields. As an example, the Australia Telescope National Facility is running in 2006-7 a high-school astronomy education program c alled `Wildflowers in the Sky' in Mid West schools in Western Australia. The regional impact of the radio astronomy NCRIS infrastructure prov ides a mechanis m to take relev ant science educ ation to regional areas. Nati onal Requirements ­ Li nks to other sciences. Astronomy has always had applic ation over a wide range of science areas. For ex ample, our calendar, timekeeping and much of our mathematics came from astronomy. Radio astronomers led the dev elopment of low-noise radio rec eivers t hat made possible the s atellit e communic ations industry. Image-processing techniques developed by astronomers are now part of the medical imaging systems that allow non-invasiv e examination of patients' internal organs.


22 Working with the proposed NCRI S infrastructure will stretch and develop the skills of the most capable young scientists and engineers at the PhD and post-doc lev el. There is an outstanding prec edent for this: the Fleurs radio telescope of the University of Sydney, whic h was a new kind of telescope in its time. For two dec ades this was a f ocus for the PhD programs for engineers and scientists, numbers of whom went on to work in areas of technology suc h as chip des ign and wireless net works. David Skellern and John O'Sullivan, two of the moving forces behind the Radiata company sold to Cisc o Systems for $600 million in 2001, bot h completed PhDs using Fleurs, and spent many more years work ing on radio telescopes and their ass ociated technology. Astronomic al tools and techniques are regularly transferred to medicine, industry, defence and environment al science. For ex ample, a medic al tool that arose from X-ray astronomy, the portable Low Intensity X-ray Imaging Scope (Lixiscope), is now one of NASA's largest sources of royalties. It is widely used in neonatology, out-patient surgery, diagnosis of sports injuries, and clinics in developing countries. [Sourc e: US Astronomy dec adal review.] In the area of soft ware alone, astronomical techniques for reconstructing 3-D images from oneand t wo-dimensional images have been applied to imaging for CT scans, magnetic resonanc e imaging, and positron emission tomography.i Other image processing soft ware (I RAF and AIPS), developed by the US National Radio Astronomy Observ atory, NASA and others, has been applied to cardiac angiograms, monitoring neutron activity in the brain, studying aut omobile crashes and testing aircraft hardware. Adaptive optics, a technology fundamental to the GMT and already being implemented at Gemini, is in us e in laser machining, defence, and medicine, through, for ex ample, enhanc ed retinal imaging and diagnostic techniques. ICT, for whic h Australia is recognised as having particular strength, is currently the critical enabling technology and is a major contributor to national productivity and growt h. Powerful next-generation telescopes will generate databases containing terabytes (1012 bytes) or even pet abytes (1015 bytes) of dat a. Finding patterns in this data will require new soft ware tools. But other fields of science and business will need the same tools to let thous ands of distributed users put complex queries to multiple catalogues and image databas es. Because astronomy does not hav e the problems associated wit h protection of individual privacy, it has been able to solve the same kind of problems in database querying that will be us eful to the medic al profession in, for ex ample, searc hing epidemiological data. The rec ent Def ence Electronic Systems Sector Strategic Plan (Department of Def enc e, 2004) incorporates an industry analysis that concludes that, over coming years, an av erage of about AUD1,000m per annum in loc ally sourced military electronics system work will be required, along with a substantial demand, at around AUD700m, for on-going loc al support (possibly declining slowly with inc reasing system reliability). This constitutes a substantial slic e of local demand for electronics sector expertise. The local acquisition is heavily weighted towards electronic systems integration ­ where the analogy wit h the integration requirements of the SKA project is strong. The report identifies industrial capabilities that will be needed to support the Defence programs as including: "photonics, monolithic microwave integrated circ uits, artificial intelligence, electro-optics, radio frequency (RF) engineering, radar technologies, data fusion, safety critical software systems, and s pace-based communic ations." The ov erlap with the skill base needed for the astronomy NCRI S infrastructure is considerable. Astronomy can be a valuable and steady training ground for technicians for important industry R&D sectors. The MI RA project will be working directly with approac hes to handling very high speed net working, interpret ation of large volumes of data and management of geographically diverse radio communications facilities. Historical prec edent suggests high pros pects for ac hieving s ome signific ant breakthroughs. Examples such as Radiata and the eart h station antennas 4 point to a

4

Anderssen, Harvey, a nd Matthew Hampton (1991), Analysis of CSIRO Industrial Research: Earth Station An tennas. R esearch Paper 6, Bur eau of Ind ustry Econom ics. Study inferred a benefit-cost ratio for Australia of 2 at a 10% discount rate.


23 track record in capturing enough of the benefits of at least some of these developments to more than justify their costs. Companies are already expressing interest in thes e technologies through the industry-led Australian SKA Cluster Mapping Project. The fields of Earth Scienc e and Physics also will benefit from these NCRI S invest ments, partic ularly in the Gemini and GMT capabilities that will enable our own Solar System to be placed into the larger, div erse, context of planet ary systems throughout the Galaxy. Space weather is another vital area where the astronomy infrastructure has the pot ential to benefit other scienc es. Coronal mass ejections and the flares with which they are associated c an play havoc wit h satellit es, communication links and power grids, can endanger astronauts, and are responsible for the polar light shows known as auroras. Thes e "space weather" effects can be predicted, but not well. Sometimes, the ejected material is deflected by the Earth's magnetic field and Earth is shielded. Other times, the shield fails and wides pread damage can ensue ­ the difference is due to the magnetic properties of the ejected material. If we are to improve the predictions and provide reliable advance warning of adverse space weather, we must measure the magnetic field whic h permeates the material when it is ejected by the sun and travels in the heliosphere. Until now, we hav e had no way to make that measurement until it is near Earth. The low-frequency component of MIRA will enable scientists to deduce the all-import ant magnetic field properties. This is a crucial measurement of enormous scientific and commercial value for all sciences that use space technology, as it would provide adv anc e notic e about the s pace weather effects on Earth well ahead of the time of impact of the plas ma burst. PILOT, and telescopes at Dome C that ev olve from PI LOT, are well situated to perform "dual us e" observations of the upper at mosphere. For ex ample, hydroxyl (OH) measurements from Dome C would be a byproduct of PILOT's routine near-I R observ ations and would giv e valuable data on stratospheric temperatures at polar latitudes, whic h in turn are a key ingredient of climat e models. In addition to incident al measurements of at mos pheric paramet ers, a s mall fraction of PILOT time could be dedicated to specific observations, for ex ample, studies of stratospheric ozone and trace gases that are crucial for climat e change modeling. In addition, the orbital decay rates of low-earth-orbit space debris discov ered by PI LOT are a good meas ure of the density of the upper at mosphere. This in turn is a function of solar activity, providing vital clues links about "space weather" t hat are of considerable environment al signific ance. Regional/State Benefits Infrastructure longevity is an import ant factor in considering the long-term nat ure of the benefits to the country of NCRIS-funded infrastructure. Next-generation telesc opes are planned to have a 50+ year lifetime, returning benefits to the part ner countries until at least 2070. MI RA The MI RA project has potential for boosting employment and wider ec onomic activity in a remote region in Western Australia. Were the SKA to be sited in Australia, it is highly likely significant economic benefit would be delivered into the regions where the stations are to sited. Thus, by increasing the chanc es of Australia being selected as the SKA site, MI RA brings substantial additional benefit to regional Australia in general and WA in particular. The effects of MIRA itself are likely to be both positive and substantial in regional terms, bas ed on: · the scale of the project; · the infrastructure requirements of the facility and the likely need for on-s ite assembly of antenna arrays; · post commissioning demands for significant on-going support and operation of the facilities; · on-going regional scope for joint us e of infrastruct ure suc h as broadband;


24 · · opportunities for planning other regional activities t o exploit the synergies, including touris m (although not at the core site to main radio quietness); the sensitivity of s mall regional economies to quite modest changes in activity levels.

Of cours e, small, remote regional communities are likely als o to be limited in their scope for responding to some of these opportunities. CSI RO, in partnership with other groups, has initiat ed industry briefing sessions and high-sc hool education activities to raise awareness and capability. Furthermore, the need to accommodat e and support an influx of work ers would creat e its own demands on the regional fac ilities and businesses . The ongoing needs to operat e and maintain the facilities should imply long-term demands for goods and services that could sustain some economic growth. Specific opport unities, where there should be local supplier advantage, hav e been identified in relation to: · site construction, especially buildings and footings but possibly extending to some role in the on-sit e assembly of antennas; · employ ment from touris m, including for indigenous communities. · It is appropriate to rec ognise that increased activit y and throughput in remote regions could translate into efficiencies for governments in ensuring minimal social infrastructure ­ or could allow the standards of such facilities to be rais ed c ost effectively. Similarly, commercial services int o the region could be encouraged; · extension of local acc ommodation facilities, and wider s ocial facilities, to meet the increas e in the workforce during the construction phase and t o meet the longer term stable demands of the facility; · trenching for the broadband system.

The WA Gov ernment is seeking to gradually diversify the economic base of the State away from mining to a range of ot her activities including in ICT and system engineering and support to Defenc e. These three s ectors (which all overlap) lie at the heart of the technology and engineering effort and capability needed to support radio astronomy. A unique advantage that the location of radio telescopes in WA will giv e to the State is that it will provide an alternativ e (and relativ ely constant) revenue stream t o a number of s mall-medium enterprises (SMEs) especially, which otherwise would struggle to survive in the lumpy investment space of Defence. When the latter point is combined with the current and wors ening national (indeed global) skills short age in thes e and associated high tech. industries, continuity of business becomes one of the major fact ors in staff retention. A relatively more stable business environment is a pre-requisit e to successful innovation. Thus the NCRIS funded infrastructure and new developing mark et in WA c an go to the heart of the future economic health and well-being of the State, In addition, the communications infrastructure that will be needed to support radio astronomy will genuinely allow the Stat e Gov ernment of WA to think differently about regional development wit hin the State. PILOT The Tas manian Polar Net work is an industry association s et up to promote Tas manian industry capability, and can be expect ed to lead efforts to capture the maximum return for the state's economy from the expans ion of activities at Dome C following the construction of PI LOT. Bec aus e PILOT is itself a pathfinder for future large international telesc opes at Dome C (in fact, "PILOT" is an acrony m for "Pathfinder for an Int ernational Large Optical Telesc ope"), Australian invest ment at these earliest stages of the Dome C Station positions the country to reap future benefits from the ongoing logistical support of the station.. This opportunity is consistent with the Tas manian government's stated vision for Hobart to become "...recogniz ed globally as the world's pre-eminent gateway to the Antarctic ...". Already, Antarctic-related activities contribut e $90m/year to the Tas manian economy. The world currently spends about $1billion per annum on polar activities, suggesting major growth potential for Tas mania's Antarctic support industries.


25 Construction of PILOT as an Australian-led project would s howc ase Australia's capacity for deploy ment of advanced scientific infrastructure to Antarctica, creating enhanc ed opportunities for Hobart to bec ome the Antarctic gat eway of choice for the Ant arctic programs of other countries in preference to the alternativ e ports of Christchurch and Cape Town. AAO Educational The site of the AAO clos e to the Warrumbungle National Park sees a large number the park being exposed to the conc epts and operations of astronomy. The Siding S Obs ervatory is one of the most acc essible profess ional observ atories in the World. year large numbers of school students from acros s NSW c ome to Coonabarabran t study regime including astronomy. of visitors to pring During each o further their

Regional Environment Plan The Warrumbungle Shire Council has been a part ner with the Observ atory in dev eloping the first Regional Plan dealing with light emissions. These lighting codes have raised awareness of the environment al value of dark skies and the importance of energy cons ervation, and have been us ed as the basis for models of lighting controls internat ionally. Direct Economic Benefit Coonabarabran town has a population of nearly 3000 people whic h is recognised as a critical level of sustainability. It is a busy town c entre prov iding services and amenity for the region of approximately 7500 people and the passing traffic along the Newell Highway. The c ontribution that the $2 million per annum wages alone generat ed into the local ec onomy by AAO staff is vitally important to the fut ure of Warrumbungle Shire. Social Staff and their families c ontribute to the social fabric of the region. The exc ellent reputation of the schools and health services is a direct res ult of the calibre of scientific and support staff at the AAO. Touris m Coonabarabran has sinc e 1994 branded itself as the Astronomy Capital of Australia. This has been a very successful mark eting and promotional campaign, as demonstrated by recent Central NSW (CNSW) Regional Touris m Organisation visitor ex perienc e and product dev elopment res earc h1. For example: · · · 17% of visitors to Central NSW spend time in Coonabarabran, of whom 94% stay at least one night 74 % of the visitors to Coonabarabran go to Siding Spring Observ atory and 70% go to the Warrumbungle National Park The key market opportunities for Coonabarabran are the Compatriots and Wanders, who spend on average $111 and $132 per day respect ively.

Ref: Central NSW Touris m Business Pros pectus ­ Coonabarabran (2003) Pac ALLIANCE (Australia) Pty Ltd & Environmetrics Pty Ltd Coonabarabran is capturing a higher number of visitor nights which reflects the destinational nature of the area and variety of activities av ailable More s o than any ot her local government area in Central NSW region, offering the pros pective tourist a degree of involv ement was identified as an opport unity for Coonabarabran. The educ ational outreach of the AAO is clearly a critic al aspect of the touris m product on offer in the Warrumbungle Shire.


26 On av erage 32,000 visit ors call into the Coonabarabran Visitor Information Centre per annum. This is a Council funded facility, which is operated by 3 full time and 2 part time staff and support ed by an annual combined Touris m and Economic Dev elopment promotions budget of $60,000. Proposed Package - a bal anced suite of i nfrastructures The inv est ment portfolio is balanced across a small number of infrastructure items, providing a balanc e of support for ex isting facilities and developing options to invest in fut ure facilities. The inv est ment strategy is viewed by the astronomy community as a package, with strong synergies av ailable through the cross-spectrum features (higher and lower frequency radio, infrared and optic al) of the propos ed package and through the coherent whole-of-astronomycommunity support that has emerged from the planning process es. In respect of a number of the major questions to which the propos ed infrastructure will be applicable, there will be growing scope to exploit these cross-spectrum synergies, es pecially thos e available from the next generation of much larger radio and optical instruments, to deliver a fuller understanding of the phenomena being obs erved. None of the leading countries in astronomy has focused on one part of the s pectrum at the ex pens e of the others ­ astronomy is adv ancing using a range of types of instruments whose costs are suc h that sharing the costs of individual instruments internationally allows access to the pack age of ins truments appropriate to addressing the major questions in astronomy. In terms of the Dec adal Plan and the desire to hos t the SKA, this package character of the propos al takes on even great er significance. International perc eptions of Australia's commit ment and c apability across the s pectrum hav e a major impact on international perceptions of Australia as a suitable site for the SKA. This influence arises through a combination of considerations, ranging from true technical and scientific synergies, through to assess ment of depth of commit ment to a project with a v ery long planned life. It represents a clear differentiator relativ e to the most likely alternativ e site ­ and perceptions that Australian commit ment across the spectrum may be diminishing could be expect ed to reduc e substantially Australia's pros pects for being chosen to host the SKA. The 2005 DEST business cas e for Australian involvement in the SKA, including the possibility of being chosen as the host site, emphasis ed the value of preserving this hosting option. Indicativ ely, using the same parameter s ettings us ed then, a plausible reduction in Australia's prospects of being selected from 1:2 to 1:3 would entail a (very conserv ative) reduction in ex pected net economic benefits to Australia of the order AUD200M (NPV) ­ wit h the consistent conserv atis m used throughout the options modelling suggesting the true cost could be substantially higher. Howev er, the costs to Australian astronomy and perceptions of Australia's position in astronomy, and the value of Australian involvement in this major international project, would we believ e be very much greater than these tangible benefits alone. Thes e strategic considerations are appropriately included in the ass ess ment of alternative funding packages for this round of NCRIS. NCRI S funding is required for maintaining access to existing optical world-class facilities, both onshore (AAO) and off-shore (Gemini). In the radio astronomy domain, support for existing national facilities is provided through CSI RO, and it is proposed that this support be to some extent redirect ed to the new infrastruct ure. Infrastructure inv est ment in the design phas e of GMT and in PILOT is dev eloping options for possible engagement in future large-scale optical f acilities and for maximising Australia's ability to compete in the next stages of optic al and infrared astronomy. This repres ents a sound approac h to the considerable challenges inherent in planning for such complex instruments. The GMT is already well-dev eloped. It has just passed a Conc eptual Design Phase, culminating in a 700-page public doc ument that has pass ed int ernational peer-review by a panel of ex perts. In the case of PILOT, preliminary studies of the winteris ing of a commercial 2.4 metre telesc ope can now be


27 followed by a detailed des ign phase. As is disc ussed further in Attachment K, the nature of the science and its required infrastructure and the rapidly changing tec hnologies really dictate that a level of adaptive strat egy is going to be a sound part of any cost effective strat egy for deliv ering these types of infrastructure. While this NCRI S proposal c onc erns funding ov er the next 5 years, this strategy is about building Australian capacity to contribut e at the leading edge of astronomy over many y ears to come. Astronomy is characterised by very rapid rat es of technologic al dev elopment that becomes embodied in very large infrastructure projects that can take ov er a decade to roll out. It is not possible to operate in this env ironment on the bas is of deterministic planning, built around currently available technologies. Major astronomy facilities are well suited to adaptive dev elopment that inc orporates modern princ iples for large invest ment planning and roll-out under uncertainty, and sensible inv est ments in reducing project uncert ainty and in providing acc ess to evolving technologies are an inherent part of a sound infrastructure roll-out strategy. New tec hnologies can be incorporat ed int o facilities during and after roll-out, provided that the design has built in scope for suc h flexibility. Attempting to build to a rigid strat egy is not cost effective. One of the major attractions to participation in these projects, and associated leverage of funds, lies in the opportunities to participate in leading edge technology dev elopment with applic ation to the facility and with possibilities for s ubstantial wider industry and application spin-offs from these technologies. Australian involvement in an adaptiv e project dev elopment maximises the scope for Australia being part of the tec hnology dev elopment, and being able to benefit from the skills and IP that follow. Adaptive management of risks and opportunities offers scope for muc h better cost management without jeopardising long term objec tives for the facility ­ while also retaining the opportunity of pus hing out the value of the project as a result of technology dev elopments that occur across the planning and roll-out phas es. To realise our ambitions we will use a range of funding sources. To manage the potential conflict here, we hav e constructed a pack age of funding sourc es directed at different elements of the overall infrastructure need, reserving for NCRIS funding those elements that do fit clearly within the NCRI S criteria. For the abov e reasons, it will be appropriate that this pack age be capable of adaptation to new information. However, all elem ents for whic h NCRIS funding is sought are invest ment in infrastructure and infrastructure options. Relev ant res earch elements will be the subject of leverage from ot her countries and institutions, and these have been factored into the overall budgeting. The major elements of this proposed inv estment package are: The Angl o-Australian Observatory (AAO) o The Anglo-Australian Telescope (AAT) is widely acknowledged to hav e been the most productive telescope for Australian researchers ov er the past dec ade. The AAT accounted for 15% of all Australian astronomy citations over t he past eight years. o Over the next four years the UK will gradually withdraw from the AAO, and by mid-2010 Australia will hav e sole owners hip of the AAT and all the other assets of the observ atory. The Dec adal Plan envis ages that the AAO will ex pand its role in the delivery of res earc h outcomes to the Australian astronomical community by evolving into the national optical/infrared obs ervat ory. o NCRI S invest ment of AUD10M is required to maintain the AAT as a world-class facility available to Australian researchers ov er the next decade. o This invest ment will accomplish t wo major goals: (i) AUD4. 1M will be us ed to ref urbish the AAT to allow it to operate reliably and efficiently throughout the coming decade. (ii) AUD5.9M will be used to c onstruct a new instrument to offer world-leading capabilities to Australian res earc hers and to sustain very high levels of scientific productivity and impact. Gemi ni and large telescope access


28 o o The funding of Australia's existing 6. 19% share of Gemini and the loc al support infrastructure c osts will involv e joint invest ment from NCRI S and by the Australian Research Counc il (ARC). The ARC is Australia's signatory to the Int ernational Gemini Agreement and hence has ultimate responsibility for Australian participation in Gemini. As suc h it wishes to continue providing funding support and will do so through it s Linkages Infrastructure and Equipment Fund (LIEF) sc heme. The total cost of Gemini "operations" ass ociat ed with Australia's 6.19% share is AUD10.5M over the NCRI S period. The ARC is expected to contribute AUD3. 6M of this; the remaining AUD6.9M is a priority item for NCRI S funding. Australia is also required to contribut e its share of the cost of Gemini's "Aspen" instrumentation program, which will equip the telescopes with the next generation of stateof-the-art instruments over the next 5 years. The scope of this program is currently under review (bec aus e of unc ertainties in the funding av ailable from major partners) to the extent that the required inv estment of NCRIS funding c ould range from AUD0. 0 ­ 3.7M. Sinc e Australia is required to meet this commit ment whatever its final value should be, it is also a priority item for NCRIS funding. However, its uncertainty means that the total priority funding for Gemini (t o cover "operations" and "As pen") c an, at this stage, only be quoted as a range ­ from AUD6.9M to AUD10.6M. A stated goal of the Dec adal Plan is to inc rease access to large telesc opes for Australian astronomers to a lev el corresponding to a 20% share in an 8-metre telescope ov er the coming dec ade. As a first step towards this goal, AUD1.9M in NCRIS funds is requested to acquire additional acc ess (over and abov e the 12.4% acc ess provided by Australia's 6.2% share in the t wo Gemini telescopes) to large teles copes to provide Australian astronomers with the equiv alent of a 15% share in an 8-metre t elescope. This additional share is a `strategic -option' priority for NCRIS funding. It is dependent on its strategic priority, as determined by ARA, relativ e to the other options in the program.

o o

o

MI RA o NCRI S funding of AUD19.2M is requested for radio astronomy infrastruct ure for construction of a world-leading next-generation radio telescope, the Mileura International Radio Array (MI RA) at Mileura ­ the propos ed central site for the SKA should it proc eed in Australia. The MI RA builds on existing commit ments to the CSIRO-f unded extended New Tec hnology Demonstrator, and the NSF- and Australian- funded Low Frequency Demonstrator (LFD) at Mileura. NCRIS funding will enable the enhanc ement and int egration of thes e two facilities into a powerful next-generation radio telescope ac cording to the international SKA Reference Design. The MI RA also builds on commit ment by the Government of Western Australia to establis h a Radio Astronomy Park at Mileura, to prot ect the site for the purpose of radio astronomy, and to provide infrastructure support to a level of AUD4.2M. The funding sources for the MI RA include CSI RO (~AUD30M), the US National Science Foundation (USD4.9M), Harvard University (USD0.5M), the USAFOSR (USD0.3M). In addition, an MOU is currently being prepared bet ween CSI RO and Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics to furt her develop MI RA ov er the coming 5 years. The Australian and Sout h African SKA teams are collaborating on software dev elopment for MI RA and the South Afric an Karoo Array Telescope. NCRIS funding may also leverage furt her international invest ment. Recent discussions at the International Astronomic al Union meeting in Prague have led to agreement to develop an MOU bet ween China and CSI RO to supply the FAST radiotelescope ­ the largest (500m-diameter) single dish telescope in the world ­ wit h technologies developed for MI RA (foc al-plane arrays, digital signal proc essing). This MOU could also from the basis for future scientific collaboration bet ween China and Australia for joint science programs wit h FAST and MIRA. This would add to the scientific capability of both infrastruct ures, particularly if the telescopes c an be directly link ed by broadband infrastructure. In addition, the LFD partners are in discussion with the Raman Res earc h Institute (India) about possible part ners hip in the LFD.

o

o


29 o o ARC LIEF grants and other sources may be us ed to support spec ific University research outputs of the LFD program The indicativ e timetable involv es construction commencing in 2007, int egration of the Australian-funded portion of LFD into MI RA on an access by merit basis in 2010 and full commissioning in 2011. Some operating costs would be expected to come from international partners. Operating costs for the MIRA post-2011 would be partially sourced from re-prioritisation of existing resources wit hin ATNF. Access for Australian researchers would be handled through a Time Assignment Committee managed through CSI RO ATNF using the existing merit-based approach.

o o

PILOT o The PILOT program involves the detailed design, construction and operation of a 2. 4-metre optical/infrared telesc ope at Conc ordia St ation, Dome C, in the Australian Ant arctic Territory. PILOT is the first stage of a development path that provides the option of engagement in larger facilities in Antarctic a, consistent wit h the high priority given Antarctic astronomy in the Dec adal Plan and the Australian Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) Working Group Roadmap (2005). o The initial timet able indicat es a det ailed design phase beginning in 2007, with a design review to occur after 12 months. NCRIS funding is requested for this detailed design phase for PILOT of AUD1.0M. o Substantial additional invest ment is expected from the European partners and from Australian institutions. Preliminary discussions have already been held with overseas partners and these discussions are likely to lead to firm agreements by the time of completion of the Design Review. o The construction phase of PILOT would follow the satisfactory completion of the design review, and would be funded through a combination of NCRIS, Australian University and European res ourc es. NCRIS resources of up to AUD5M are requested for a significant share in the c onstruction of PILOT, as a `strategic option' priority. This would be contingent of the success of the design study and evaluation by ARA of its strategic priority, relative to other options in the NCRIS program. o Maximising the lev el of funding for PILOT in the c onstruction phas e is important for maximising Australian influence ov er aspects of logistical support to maximise ec onomic return to Australia. o The design, construction and operation of PILOT will be managed by a PILOT Board that is responsible to the Astronomy Research Australia Board, and to its European count erpart. o Access to PILOT for end us ers will ultimat ely be managed via the existing Australian Time Alloc ation Committee (ATAC). The Giant Magellan Tel escope (GMT) o Enabling access to the next generation of extremely large telesc opes for all Australian astronomers is a high priority item of the Dec adal Plan. The Giant Magellan Telescope is a 25-metre telescope, plans for which are being dev eloped by a consortium of some of the most global and high profile research institutions in the USA and the Australian National Univers ity. GMT has been chos en by the Australian ELT Working Group as the best matched of the next generation of extremely large aperture optic al telescopes to Australian astronomers' scientific requirements and technical capabilities. The ex pected total capital cost of the GMT is USD550M. o There are strong indications that the legal agreement currently being drawn up to form t he partners hip will favour early inv estment reaping larger influence and share than lat er invest ment. o The GMT project is now entering its Design Development Phas e (DDP), which will cost USD56M. Early entry to this next-generation facilit y will allow Australian astronomers to help set the scientific agenda through opportunities to participate in the design of the telescope and instruments, and will allow Australian industry to compete effectiv ely for, and maximally benefit from, the technologic al developments and construction contracts.


30 o The criteria for s uccessful inv olv ement by Australia in the design phas e include satisfactory definition of scienc e goals, winning of design c ontracts by industry and academia, healthy financial and governanc e arrangements for the project, and effective us e of Australian members hip in scienc e populariz ation and outreac h. NCRI S funding of AUD4.8M would (with matching funds from the ANU) secure ground floor Australian membership at the 10% level in the consortium for the Design Development Phase. In the priority list for NCRI S, it is proposed that AUD 1.4M be alloc ated to s ecure Australian participation in the critical first year of the design phas e; with ANU contributions, this will mean that there is a s ubstantial Australian involvement in the project, equally weighted bet ween NCRI S and ANU s ourc es. The funding required for the final two years of the DDP is strategic option; a decision will be made about further inv olvement, based on the extent to which GMT inv olvement has been a success in relation to other options, as judged by the criteria given above. During this phas e, Australian astronomers would, in part ners hip wit h gov ernment and industry, establis h a GMT Landmark Facility Committee (a suggestion c ommended in the NCRI S strategic roadmap) to develop the bus iness case for Australian participation in the construction and operation of the GMT, bas ed on engagement with, and first outcomes from, the DDP. Following commissioning in 2017, telescope time on the GMT would be divided amongst partners in proportion to their invest ment. Each partner would alloc ate that time as they saw fit; in the c ase of Australian time, it would be alloc ated c ompetitively on merit through the well-establis hed national procedures for allocating telescope time.

o

o

o

NCRI S Funds and Funds Management NCRI S funding will be managed by a new peak body to be establis hed with appropriate legal status, Astronomy Res earc h Australia Ltd (see section 5), that will allocate NCRI S funds to the various infrastructures according to agreed timelines and subject to satisfactory progress through critical review points. ARA will have some ability to re-prioritise and re-allocate funds to adapt to changing int ernational circumstances. Decision points will be necessary for allocation of funds in the optic al astronomy area. Depending on results from the first year of the GMT DDP, the one-y ear PILOT design study, and the lev el of NCRI S funds remaining, decisions will be made whether to support one of thes e infrastructures or additional 8-metre telescope acc ess in subs equent years of the NCRI S funding cycle. AUD1.17M of NCRIS funds will be required to support the ARA Office over the life of NCRI S. This invest ment offers good value via the scope it will provide for adaptive management of the overall invest ment in order to maximise the v alue of the infrastructure options. ARA will give the Australian government a single point of account ability, initially in the gov ernance of any NCRI S inv est ment in astronomy, and potentially growing to include ot her items of national infrastructure for astronomy. ARA is disc ussed in substantially more detail in the context of the propos ed governance arrangements, in Part 5.


31 Investment Portfoilo The ov erall $45M invest ment portfolio may be summariz ed as follows: Gov ernanc e Base Lev el Gemini (2 x 6.19%) share MI RA AAO GMT DDP Year 1 PILOT Design Strategic Options Increas ed acc ess to 8m (15% share) GMT DDP Years 2&3 PILOT c onstruction AUD1.17M AU AU AU AU AU AU [up [up [up D6.95-10.65M D19.20M D10.02M D1.30M D1.00M D1.58-5.28M to ~AUD2M] to ~AUD3M] to ~AUD5M]
5

In this portfolio we have explic itly recogniz ed the current unc ertainty in the c ost of Australia's 6.19% Gemini share (discussed in more detail in t he risk management section: Attac hment G). Wit hin the $45m envelope, this unc ertainty is reflected in the resources available to the strategic options. These strategic options are not discretionary ex penditures; they are options in the sens e used in the economic and inv est ment literature. This investment propos al rec ognises s ubstantial uncertainties and risks and a strategy has been developed to manage these risks and ensure maximum value. That appropriately means we do not now commit to a deterministic strategy. We propos e to start with some strategic invest ments designed to reduce the unc ertainties and we then adapt the detail of the investment mix, in the light of this information, to ensure maximum value. It is for this reason that we have also proposed an initial one-year inv est ment in the GMT DDP, alongs ide the PILOT design that was identified by the NCRIS committee as a high priority item. The process for deciding on the changed mix in the light of fres h information will be embodied in criteria to be used by ARA and these will, where appropriate, include formal consultation with NCRIS. Failure to build flexibility in this package of investments would limit the scope for return to the community. The sum av ailable to the strategic options would be fixed by the inv est ment necess ary to maintain Australia's 6.19% s hare of Gemini. The criteria applied to invest ment decis ions bet ween the options thems elves would focus on the strategic, s cientific and technical returns to Australia and to the capability. It would include consideration of: · the construction costs for PILOT (and the consequent level of Australian participation in PILOT); · the evidence of influenc e in the design of GMT (and the tangible return to Australian industry ); · the requirement to access capabilities on ot her 8m-c lass optical telescope unlikely to be provided by any sc ale back in the Gemini 2nd generation instrumentation program.

5

These amounts reflect the uncertainty in Australia 's required contribution to G emini's "Aspen" instrum entation program, which is curr ently under r eview by the Gem ini Board and could range from A UD0.0 ­ 3.7M.


32 PART FOUR ­ ACCESS AND PRI CI NG In this Part, you are required to show how the arrangements for the proposed infrastructure meet NCRI S Invest ment Criterion 2, ie: An i nvestment plan must result i n resear ch infrastr ucture that is accessi ble by researchers on the basis of merit, at reasonabl e prices, and that encourages collabor ati on in research. In addressing the criterion, you should fully addres s: · · all issues relevant to Crit erion 2 that are identified in the NCRIS Roadmap; and the requirements of Section 3.2 of the NCRI S Investment Framework `Cont ent of Investment Plans'. ..........................................................................................

Access to the various infrastructure components of this investment plan would be via the existing well-established time assignment mechanis ms, already identified as exemplars of best-practice access policies by the NCRIS committee6. Access to all ­ bot h existing and proposed ­ infrastructure would be co-ordinat ed via the AAO Australian Time Assignment Committee (for the optical/I R) and the ATNF Time Assignment Comm ittee (for the radio). This is consistent via the Decadal Plan strategy of having AAO and ATNF act as the national obs ervatories for optic al/IR and radio astronomy res pectively. Initiated by the propos ed NCRIS Gov ernanc e body, the capability may in future look towards combining the time assignment committees to foster yet further cross-capability collaboration. For the pres ent, the existing structure works well and provides transparent merit-based access for all researc hers to the major Australian astronomic al facilities. AAT Applications for access to the Anglo-Australia Telescope (AAT) are made to a single bi-national time assignment committee - the Anglo-Australian Time Assignment Committee (AATAC), whic h ranks all proposals for observing time on the AAT, from both Australian and UK astronomers, on the bas is of scientific merit and technical feasibilty, and assigns each succ essful proposal an appropriate number of nights observing time. The Australian members of AATAC are appointed by the AAT Board, bas ed on the recommendations of a 3-pers on appoint ment committee comprising the Australian Gemini Board member, the senior Australian AAT Board member, and the President of the Astronomic al Society of Australia. The members of AATAC are a subset of the members of the Australian Time Assignment Committee (ATAC) that awards acces s to all Australian national optical astronomy facilities. Calls for proposals are made twice a year, and propos als are submitted via a WWW-based application systeem. All res earc hers, irrespective of nationality, are able to apply. Full secretarial support for the propos al submission and review process is provided by the AAO. Tec hnic al evaluation and scheduling of the propos als is also carried out by the AAO. No charge is made to users of the facility allocat ed time under this process. Basic costs associat ed with travel/ accomodation to carrry out the observ ations at the AAT are provided by the AAO, although some costs are borne by the users. Data archive/ management costs are borne by the

6

Based on the document Gu idance on access and cha rging issues submitted to the NCRIS facilitators' meeting 9 J une 2006.


33 Obs ervatory. All data is freely available to the international scientific community via a WWW-based archiv e, following a proprietary period of 18 months. Gemi ni Applications for access to the Australian share of the Gemini Telescopes are made to a single national time assignment committee - the Australian Time Assignment Committee (ATAC), which ranks all Australian proposals for obs erving time on Gemini, on the basis of scientific merit and technic al feasibilty, and rec ommends an appropriate number of nights observing time to each successful proposal. These succ essful proposals are then passed on to the Gemini international TAC (on whic h Australia has a representativ e) to make the final scheduling recommendations, taking into account possible multi-partner participation programs (eac h national TAC having provided its asses ment of the scientific merit of any particular program) and any program conflicts/duplication. The ITAC is caref ul to maint ain appropriate partner-share balanc e in its final assembly of the telescope schedule. Applications for observing time on the Gemini Telescopes are made via a WWW-bas ed application form. Call for proposals are made twice a year. Full sectarial support for the propos al submission and review process is provided by the AAO, as a component of its contribution to the Australian Gemini Project Office. No charge is made to users of the facility allocat ed time via this proc ess. Time on the Gemini telescopes is awarded on both a `classical' and `queue' basis. Obs ervers who are granted classical time are expected to trav el to the telescope to conduct the obs ervations, and bear the costs associated with this. Obs ervers awarded queue time will have their observations conducted for them and the res ultant data distributed to them. Data arc hive/ management costs are borne by the observatory. All data is freely available to the international scientific community via a WWW-bas ed arc hive, following a proprietary period of 18 months. Additi onal 8m Time Any further 8m time on a telesc ope other the Gemini would be acc essed via ATAC in ex actly the same fashion as defined above. Indeed, time of the Magellan optic al/IR facility (access ed via MNRF funds) is currently ranked and allocated via ATAC. PILOT The Australian s hare of time on PILOT would also be access ed via ATAC in exactly the same fashion as for Gemini and ot her 8m telesc opes. MI RA During the term of the NSF grant (2006-10), when the mid-frequency (x NTD) component of MI RA will be under construction, the us e of the low-frequency (LFD) component is already clearly laid out by the international LFD c ons ortium, with the key science projects, international scienc e collaboration teams, and campaign-mode style of operations determined. There are well-defined mechanis ms for interested groups to apply to join science c ollaboration teams. Australian institutions are already members of the teams and so can participate in the scienc e experiments of the LFD during the term of the NSF grant. . Australian LFD participants are forming an Australian LFD c ons ortium to c oordinate participation in governance of the LFD, and construction and operation of the LFD during this early phas e. When MIRA is fully commissioned (in ~2011), it is intended that applications for observing time on at least the Australian-funded fraction of the MI RA facility (either the ext ended New Technology Demonstrator or Low Frequency Demonstrator) would be made via a single Time Assignent Committee, which will operate along similar lines to the exising Australia Telesc ope National Fac ility Time Assignment Committee (TAC). It is likely that a fraction of Australian MI RA time will be targeted towards major s urvey-oriented key science projects. Time will be allocated to teams


34 for these projects on the basis of merit. It is likely that there will als o be time available for innovative s horter-timescale experiments and obs ervations, also on the basis of merit. Currently, the ATNF TAC reviews proposals for the Australia Telesc ope Compact Array, the Park es radio telescope, the Mopra radio telesc ope, the Long Baseline Array and the Tidbinbilla antenna (5% science acc ess via host coutry agreement). The TAC ranks all proposals received for observing time on thes e telesc opes, on the basis of scientific merit and tec hnic al feas ibilty, and assigns each s uccessful proposal an appropriate amount of observing time. The TAC is appointed by the ATNF St eering Committee and compris es Australian researchers princ ipally from outside the ATNF. Applications to the TAC are made via a WWW-based application form. Call for proposals are made twic e a year, and propos als are submitted via a WWW-based applic ation system. All res earc hers, irrespective of nationality, are able to apply. Full secretariat support for the propos al submission and review process is provided by the ATNF. No charge is made to users of the facility allocat ed time via this proc ess. Users are ex pected to cover costs associated with travel/accomodation to carrry out the observations at the telescopes. Data arc hive/ management costs are borne by the observatory. All data are freely available to the international scientific community via a WWW-bas ed arc hive, following a proprietary period of 18 months. Data Manag e m e n t an d Acc e s s Through its many -dec ade history o f operating national and international-s c ale ac c es s w ith broad merit-based us er ac c es s , the ast ronomy capability has dev eloped sophisticated tools f or the entire data management pipeline, including reduction, storage, arc hive and ret rieval. Data management s y stems are built into the operating cos t s o f f a cilities. Observ atories t ypically o w n the data acquired by res earc her s and hav e the res ponsibility to both provide the data to the user in an ac c es sible f ormat and maintain a data archive ac c es sible to all resear c hers . The data arc hive is maintained at the inf ras t ructure in question (either at the remote Observ atory , the city -bas ed laboratory or both). In some cas es (e.g. A AO) a c opy o f the arc hive is also maintained over s eas. Obser v er s may obtain their o w n c opy o f the data either by attending the f acility in person 'clas sical' mode e.g. A AO, ATNF, Gemini, by obs erving remotely over the net w o rk (e.g. ATNF), or by rec eiving disk media f rom obser v ations car ried out in servic e mode by obs erv atory sta f f (e.g. A AO, Gemini). Similar models of data ownership and curation as propos ed for the new NCRI S infrastructure. For PILOT, us ers will obtain data conduct ed by servic e obs ervations and sent to Australia via satellite. MI RA users will conduct observ ations over broadband links. GMT us ers will conduct their observations through a mix of service and 'classic al' mode. Data curation for MI RA will occur at a science c entre bas ed eit her in Geraldton or Pert h, serving data product volumes of 400Tb/yr. Operating costs for these infrastructures have been factored into the post-2011 operating costs for these facilities. Data curation will include the provision of process ed data products via WWWbased arc hive to the broad astronomical community on request following the appropriate proprietary period for the science team t hat obt ained the data. It will also include the Federation of data products into the broader Int ernational Virtual Observatory (s ee below). This will furt her enable Australian scientists to leverage access to data products from infrastructure that Australia does not directly contribut e to. The AAO typically generates about 400 Gb of raw astronomic al data eac h year. All this data is archiv ed av ailable on the web (see http://www. aao.gov.au/ archiv e/) after an 18-month proprietary period. The AAO provides pipeline soft ware packages that are optimized for the rapid analysis of the dat a produced by the various instruments on the AAT, so that (in general) users of the facility are able to leav e the telescope with at least the initial, instrument-s pecific, reductions of the data already completed.


35 The ATNF generates and maintains a number of data products. About 1. 5 Tb of raw astronomic al are recorded and archiv ed each year, and made available to the astronomic al community after a proprietary period of 18 months. An import ant component of this is the ATOA (Australia Telescope Online Arc hive) that comprises Compact Array data available on the web (http://www.at nf.csiro.au/obs ervers/data. ht ml). In addition, the ATNF maintains and serves to the scientific community datasets deriv ed from major sky surveys conducted with the Facility's instruments. In total the ATNF maintains an archive that currently compris es about 15 Tbytes of raw data and 1Tbyte of sky survey data products. A number of instrumental upgrades to the facility will increas e the data volume by an order of magnitude ov er the next three years. The ATNF also provides a suite of data reduction software optimis ed for its radio astronomy data. This software is made available as part of the ATNF Compute Facility and is also av ailable for download to us ers' home instit utions. In preparation for future telesc opes, techniques are being developed that mak e use of 1Gbit/s links to ATNF telescopes and remot ely loc ated supercomputers. These tec hniques are already yielding very high sensitivity high-resolution radio images of the sky, but inv olve the temporary storage and management of 200 Tbyte datasets. The data volumes expected from radio telescopes currently under des ign nec essitate an integrated approach to collection, trans port, reduction and archiving of dat a. As well as archiving the raw data produc ed by the telescopes, the AAO and ATNF also manage several large databas es of refined data resulting from some of the major imaging and spectrosc opic surveys. Thes e dat asets are mostly interfaced to the main international data-mining services, such as the NASA Extragalactic Database (NED; US) and the Centre de DonnÈes astronomiques de Strasbourg (CDS; France). The Gemini Observ atory distributes and arc hives t he data obtained on its telesc opes through the Gemini Science Archiv e (GSA) which is operated and managed by the Canadian Astronomy Data Centre (CADC) in Victoria, BC, Canada. The GSA is both a sophisticat ed repository for observational dat a and its associat ed metadata (which aids in the characterization of the science data), as well as an integral part of Gemini's obs ervatory- and partner-wide dat aflow operations. In future, it will als o link the Observ atory and its users to the International Virtual Observ atory. As data are collected by the instruments on the Gemini telescopes, they are streamed to the GSA at CADC. The av erage ingestion time for suc h data is ~30 minutes. This inc ludes on-line ingestion validation and verific ation at the telescope, electronic transfer (via a Virtual Private Net work link from Hawaii and Chile), and ingestion into the GSA. Gemini investigators can then access their data electronic ally via the Principal Investigator Electronic Transf er and Distribution system within the GSA. This system provides a direct, almost real time conduit bet ween the Observ atory's data taking operations and the users. It also means that users hav e quick access to a number of proc essed data products, in addition to the raw data. This acc ess is made available through a pass word-protected area on the GSA site, and giv en the s wift dat a transf er and ingestion proc ess, data can be downloaded and scrutiniz ed in less and hour after the data are tak en. The proprietary period for all suc h Gemini dat a is 18 months. The total amount receiv ed by Australian astronomers each y ear will be of order 0.5Tb. The GSA also provides for direct proprietary. This inv olv es the use ccda.hia-iha.nrc-cnrc. gc.ca/gsa), as well as preview some types of archiv al searches on the bas is of and ready acces s to all Gemini data, once it bec omes nonof the web-based Data Retrieval Facility (http:// www2.cadcwhich allows arc hive us ers to request and receive archiv al dat a data. It has the added functionality of being able to perform object name and position, and scienc e program number.

While the GSA is specific to Gemini, very similar data access and archiv al facilities are in operation at other 8m telesc ope facilities, with v ery muc h the same arrangements applying should acc ess be forthcoming through NCRI S. The int ernational astronomic al community also has free access to the Astrophysics Data System (ADS); a NASA-f unded project whic h maintains a comprehensiv e bibliographic database


36 containing more than 4.8 million records. The main body of data in the ADS consists of searc hable bibliographic record and full-text scans of muc h of the astronomical lit erat ure, both accessible via a WWW-based int erface. The ADS also provides access and pointers to a wealth of external resources, including electronic articles, data catalogs and archiv es. The existing national facilities (AAO, ATNF, Gemini) als o hav e strong links wit h the Australian Virtual Observ atory project (Aus-VO; http://aus-v o.org/), whic h is part of the International Virt ual Obs ervatory Allianc e (IVOA; http:// www.ivoa.net/) formed in June 2002. Thes e virtual obs ervat ories are the next-generation astronomical data management systems, and the IVOA aims to facilitate the international coordination and collaboration necessary for the dev elopment and deploy ment of the tools, systems and organizational structures necessary to enable the utilization of astronomical archiv es as an integrat ed and interoperating virt ual observatory. The goal is to ac hiev e for astronomical data the transparency of the World Wide Web, and a longterm goal is a comput ational Grid. The VO conc ept already has a high priority in most national astronomy programs. Peter Quinn, the prev ious Head, Data Management and Operations Division of the European Sout hern Observ atory in Garching, Germany, has taken up a Western Australian Research Fellows hip in Radio Astronomy from August this year. Peter has agreed to lead the AusVO effort, and the enhanced international links will benefit the astronomy VO activity in Australia, especially in WA where the NCI RS radio astronomy research infrastruct ure is to be sited. *25% of Australian citations over the past dec ade aros e from infrastructure to which Australia did not directly contribut e (e.g. Hubble Spac e Telescope, ESO Very Large Telescope) Source: New Horizons: A Dec adal Plan for Australian Astronomy (2006-15)


37 PART FIVE ­ OWNERSHIP AND MANAGEMENT In this Part, you are required to show how the ownership and management arrangements for the propos ed infrastructure meet NCRIS Inv estment Criterion 3, ie: An i nvestment plan must incl ude a facility ownershi p and management structure that will result i n the efficient and effective operati on of the i nfrastr ucture In addressing the criterion, you should fully addres s: · · all issues relevant to Crit erion 3 that are identified in the NCRIS Roadmap; and the requirements of Section 3.3 of the NCRI S Investment Framework `Cont ent of Investment Plans'.

Any company constitution, memorandum of understanding or other agreement relating to entities that will own or operate the NCRIS facilities should be provided in Attac hment B if available. Otherwise, a detailed description should be provided of the arrangements that are proposed to be implemented. Organisation charts explaining the relationships between entities inv olved in the project, or showing the management structure within relevant organis ations should be provided in Attachment C. Where possible, curric ulum v itae for k ey pers onnel (maximum of 2 pages per person) inv olved in the management of the NCRI S facilities s hould be provided in Attac hment D. ..................................................................... The major elements of this strategy inv olve international cooperation in the funding, planning, construction, prioritis ation of access and operation of major facilities. Many of these facilities will not be s olely Australian owned and there will be international ownership and governance arrangements suited to such facilities. In this section we summarise the characteristics of these arrangements, as a backdrop to the propos ed arrangements for appropriate governance in res pect of the invest ment from NCRIS that is sought here. The governance model proposed here seeks to be consistent with the principles outlined in the Astronomy Dec adal Plan i. e. that of a peak body for Australian astronomy, linking into int ernational organiz ations as appropriate. While the model has been finalised in time for NCRI S gov ernance, if successful, it could be enlarged over time to incorporate further elements of Australia's national and international optical and radio astronomy infrastructure. The model is in its elf a piece of infrastructure.

Proposed NCRIS Governance
The Dec adal Plan called for a new piece of astronomy infrastructure; a peak body to coordinat e Australia's astronomic al activities. Consistent with this strategy it is propos ed to create a public company limit ed by guarantee c alled "Astronomy Research Australia Limited" (ARA), which will be responsible for the governance of any NCRIS investment in the c apability. ARA will be owned by a consortium of universities and ot her research organisations. ARA's mission would be: to act on behalf of the astronomical community of Australia to promote exc ellence in astronomical research through adv ocacy and efficient management of programs and facilities.


38 ARA will give the Australian government a single point of accountability, initially in the gov ernanc e of any NCRIS invest ment in astronomy, and potentially growing to include other items of national infrastructure for astronomy. ARA will be a management company, and will c ontract suit able organis ations to build and operate national infrastructure for astronomy. To bec ome a member of ARA, an institution would have to satisfy the ARA board that it has goals consistent wit h the ARA mission, and pay an annual membership fee. Each institutional member of ARA will appoint a member repres ent ative to attend the annual general meeting of ARA. These member representatives could as easily be DVC-Rs or univ ersity financial officers as astronomers. Indeed, it would import ant to get a mix of people and ex pertis e. The member repres entativ es elect Board members from nominations via a nominating committee assembled by the members The Board of Directors will consist of seven individuals with an appropriat e breadth of expertise in astronomy, management and financ e. As a possible ex ample, the Board of Directors may consist of four astronomers chosen for their res earch ex pertise and their balanced views of the strategic needs for the astronomy community, and three non-astronomers. The appoint ment of the Board, including the Chair, will be approv ed by formal v ote of the member repres ent atives (one vot e per member institution). The principal role of the Board is to progress the mission of ARA. Consequently, the Board members are not in any sense repres entativ es of their institutions or ot her employers. Consistent with this role, the Chair and members of the Board would be paid a fee for attending eac h Board meeting. Giv en the s mall siz e of the astronomy community in Australia, the member representatives have a duty to ensure the independenc e of the direct ors and in casting their votes for directors they will need to consider possible conflicts of interest that would impede the direct ors' ability to discharge their fiduciary duties. Membership terms of the Board will be staggered s o as to ensure both continuity and rotation. ARA will hav e a budget for 1 to 1. 5 FTE staff to implement its strategy. Res ponsibilities of thes e staff will include financial management, and ov ersight of the programs under ARA's contractual arrangements, reporting to the Board on their stat us. The Board would meet quarterly to rec eive these reports, set strategic goals, approve financ ial allocations, etc. The staff could also play an advoc acy role of behalf of the mission of ARA with government, industry, the univers ity sector, etc. Wit hin the NCRIS context, it is presumed that ARA would contract with DEST to carry out the approv ed programs in the NCRI S Business Plan. The funding of ARA would c ome from t he NCRI S grant and from the annual memberships fees. The expectation would be that approximately 2% of the NCRIS program alloc ation would be used in this way to support the governanc e structure, a perc ent age that is at the lower end of international best practice. ARA would use the NCRIS grant to contract relev ant organisations to deliver particular components in the Business Plan, in accordance with project milestones and subject to satisfactory performance. Performance would be monit ored independent of the institutions and organisations and reported to the ARA Board. The Board receiv es these reports and acts appropriately. In the longer term, ARA c ould take ownership of all of Australia's national astronomy facilities, and contract the operation of these facilities to the relevant organisations. The timeline for these longer term changes will undoubtedly vary from facility to facility, for example: · ARC is currently the signatory Australian organization for the Gemini Part ners hip with funding flowing through a Trust Fund held by the Univers ity of Sydney, but this arrangement will be changed by June 2007 s o that future funding for Gemini flows through ARA · The AAT Board is the governing body for the AAO until the end of the current AAT Agreement in June 2010. ARA is potentially a suitable organization to take over the role of the AAT Board when the AAO rev erts to wholly Australian owners hip in mid-2010.


39

The Board would tak e advice from AAT/AAO activities, the Australian Australia Telescope Steering Com steering and advisory committees

existing advis ory structures e. g. from the AAT Board for Gemini Steering Committee for Gemini and 8m iss ues, from the mittee for radio astronomy matters and from ot her similar as appropriate.

Below we describe the relationship bet ween the funding routes, or gov ernanc e bodies and operating organis ations for the infrastructures proposed in this invest ment plan. Consist ent with the strategies outlined in the Decadal Plan, we would envisage the AAO and ATNF increasingly acting as the National Optical and National Radio Obs ervatories respectively in operating these infrastructures (or the Australian component of these infrastructures) and the corres ponding access via their existing time assignment committ ees.


40 Operation of AAO and Gemi ni The AAT and Gemini are the existing optical/infrared national facilities. For the AAO, funding flows directly from t he Australian and UK funding agencies (DEST and PPARC), and NCRI S funding through ARA. From 2010, all Australian Government funding to the AAO could flow through ARA, which could tak e over the role of the AAT Board. For Gemini, both the NCRIS funding and the ARC LIEF funding will flow to ARA; most of the funds are then paid directly to the Gemini Observatory as Australia's subscription to the partnership. A s mall amount will be paid to AAO, which will manage the Australian Gemini Office, providing support to Australian us ers of the Gemini telescopes and running the telescope time allocation process on behalf of the community. Development of GMT The tangible reward for partners in the GMT project is that they receive a s hare of the telescope in proportion to their integrated invest ment over time. These shares are tradable assets amongst the partners. In the Australian context, ARA and ANU will both be purc hasing share in GMT during the design phas e, although these s hares will be separately owned. The goal would be for NCRIS and the ANU to eac h prov ide half of the amount required for a combined 10% involv ement in the Design and Development Phase (DDP) of the GMT project. Currently, ANU is a signat ory member of the GMT Project; when NCRI S monies flow from ARA to GMT, these arrangements will be rev isited to appropriately reflect the ARA-ANU partnership. In making dec isions relating to GMT DDP matters, special arrangements will be made to ens ure that the ANU and the ARA Board carry weights proportional to their invest ments. Like all other partners in the GMT project, Australia would have t wo represent atives and one vot e on the GMT Board. Assuming approximately equal invest ments from NCRI S and ANU, one of the two Australian members of the GMT Board would be appointed by the ARA Board, and the other would be appointed by the ANU, with the ARA Board and ANU each approving both nominees. Should Australian inv olvement in the GMT be supported by national funding for the subsequent construction and operation phas es of GMT, this symmetry would lik ely be broken, so that new arrangements would need to be made. The ANU may consider selling its share, in which cas e its members hip would be through ARA as for other institutions." Overall management of the GMT project resides with the GMT Project Office at the Carnegie Obs ervatories in Pas adena, California, which will award the contracts for the design and development work during the DDP. ARA will contract an Australian GMT Project Office to assist Australian industry and astronomic al institutions in winning GMT project contracts, and prov ide toplevel management of those contracts placed with Australian institutions. Development of PI LOT PILOT is propos ed to be a 50/50 Australian/European part ners hip. On the Australian side, PILOT will be funded by ARA; on the European side, it may be funded by the EU's Framework Program through ARENA. The ARA Board and ARENA appoint equal numbers of members to the PILOT Board, which will be res ponsible for the overall management of the project. During the design phas e, the work pack ages being carried out by Australian industry and astronomical institutions are managed by the Australian PILOT Project Office, while those carried out by European industry and astronomic al institutions may be managed by the European PILOT Project Office.). This arrangement is adequat e for the design phas e, but it is envisaged that the c onstruction and operations phas es would each need to be c ontracted to a single organiz ation, which might be AAO, ESO or another entity. Development and Operati on of MI RA MI RA will be sited on the WA Government-owned Radio Astronomy Park (RAP) being created at Mileura Station by the Gov ernment of Western Australia. Enabling infrastructure for the RAP is being provided by the Gov ernment of WA. LFD Component


41 During the term of the USA NSF grant (2006-10), progress of the LFD project will be reviewed by an int ernational LFD Board. The LFD Board has 3 US and 4 Australian representatives. There will also be a St eering Committee, the ex ecutive arm of the Board. The Steering Committee will have 2 US and 3 Australian represent atives. The LFD project is to be managed, in this first phase, by the Project Office at MI T Haystack Obs ervatory. Decisions by the Project Office regarding design, future directions and operations of the LFD will be guided by adv ice from the international LFD Steering Committee and, if nec essary, the Board. Site operation of the LFD during the term of the NSF grant will be the responsibility of the Australian LFD Site Manager, Professor Mervy n Lync h from Curtin Univ ersity. NCRIS funding during this early stage will provide infrastructure for LFD to enable expansion of LFD bey ond 2010, linking LFD int o MIRA and opening of the Australian share of LFD time to other us ers. The Australian LFD community is forming an Aust ralian LFD c onsortium, comprising Australian research institutions contributing to LFD c onstruction and contributing to LFD research and development. The cons ortium will select members to be on the international LFD gov erning bodies. Applications have been made to the ARC to support Univ ersity-based scientific R&D on LFD during this first stage. One member of the Australian LFD cons ortium will contract with the WA Government on behalf of the Australian consortium for access to the RAP for the LFD (Lead member). The Lead member of the Australian LFD c ons ortium will ent er a Consortium Agreement with other members of the Australian LFD consortium. The Cons ortium Agreement will establish an appropriat e level of control over the future directions and use of the LFD for the Australian LFD c ons ortium members. xNTD Component Funding for the x NTD will c ome from CSI RO, ARA (courtesy of the NCRI S grant) and possibly other international partners. ARA or CSI RO will contract with the WA Government for acc ess to the RAP for the x NTD component of MI RA. CSI RO will construct and operat e the x NTD component of MI RA. International partners may also contribute to the building and operation of the x NTD component of MI RA. A contract will be drawn up to enable the international partners to maintain an appropriate level of control over the future directions and use of the xNTD c omponent. Mileura International Radio Array (MI RA) By 2010, at the completion of the current NSF grant for LFD, it is the joint intention of the international partners that LFD phas e 2 will include upgrading us er support for the LFD and signific antly int egrating LFD int o MI RA to enable c ost-effective operation of at least the Australian portion of LFD as a user facility. This is consistent with NSF guidance, ass uming success of the first LFD phas e. At the end of the NCRI S funding cycle, MIR international facility. Australia's share of the funding to operate the Australia Telescope, international partners would als o contribute A will continue to be manage operational funding could co through re-prioritisation. It is a share of the operating cost d and operated as an me from the existing expected that the s.

Landmark Infrastructure ARA could also be res ponsible for the dev elopment of any astronomy `landmark' infrastruct ure propos als e.g. GMT or SKA construction.


42

PART SIX ­ IMPLEMENTATI ON STRATEGY AND BUSINESS CASE In this Part, you are required to set out an implem entation strategy and business case for the propos ed infrastructure showing how thes e arrangements meet NCRIS Inv estment Crit erion 4, ie: An i nvestment plan must incl ude an i mplementati on str ategy and busi ness case that will result i n the efficient implementati on and effective ongoi ng fi nancial management of the infr astructure. In addressing the criterion, you should fully addres s: · · all issues relevant to Crit erion 4 that are identified in the NCRIS Roadmap; and the requirements of Section 3.4 of the NCRI S Investment Framework `Cont ent of Investment Plans'.

A strategy for the implement ation of the Invest ment Plan should be provided in Attac hment E. A financial plan including projected financial statements should be provided in Attachment F. A risk management strategy should be provided in Attachment G. ................................................................................................... ... Purpose This Section sets out the proposed implementation and business strat egy, reflecting the information requirements set out in Part 3.4 of the NCRI S Invest ment Framework. Furt her detail is provided in a s eries of attachments: · · · Attachment E sets out Attachment F sets out incorporates projected Attachment G sets out the implementation strat egy, including timelines; the financial plan ­ bot h during the NCRI S process and beyond and financial statements the detail of the risk management strategy;

Context Important aspects of this strategy, and more generally of modern astronomy inv est ments, require partic ular attention to: · Almost all major new inv estments are done via int ernational consortia ­ allowing access to size economies, cost and risk sharing and providing the basis for international collaboration involving the best scientists doing the best scienc e in the world. o This creat es opportunities for Australian scientists to contribute at the leading edge of international technology and research. o Even though Australia is a s mall country we c an make valuable contributions and gain enormously from exposure to large-scale international ent erprises These efforts are truly collaborativ e, involv ing commit ment to up-front invest ment, to the prior and on-going development and provis ion of key technologies and to participation in science teams work ing on the major questions in astronomy. o It is important to rec ognise that this is quit e different from arrangements simply to buy time in major facilities ­ the commercial analogy is far more closely aligned to that of a joint venture. o For the three major new fac ilities for which NCRI S funding is sought, Australia has taken a key foundation role.

·


43 o o In relation to MI RA and PILOT, Australia has tak en the lead role and bot h would be located on Australian territory; MI RA is als o seen as pivotal in building the cas e for Australia being the site of the muc h larger SKA project. Nominal shares held by Australia in a project can seriously misrepresent the infrastructure access delivered, because of the very large size ec onomies deliv ered. In astronomy, s maller systems do not simply inv olve less out put at higher unit cost ­ they involve a fundamental loss of capability, in terms of the data that can be gathered and the questions that can be probed. These infrastructure projects are big ­ not just by the standards of science infrastructure, but even by the standards of general industry infrastructure. The SKA project, as a credible ext ension from t he MI RA infrastructure project, is likely to involv e a direct capital cost of the order of $2B and substantial operating and upgrade costs ($100M/yr) ext ending over dec ades . The GMT is envis aged as growing to a project with a capital cost of around US$550M and ongoing operating costs of the order of US$32M per annum. While the PILOT project being led by Australia is planned to be of modest size, its primary rationale lies in building the capability to underpin a much larger int ernational invest ment For the GMT strategy, Australia is als o inv olved from the start, at this crucial stage in the concept development ­ a stage that will shape the c apability of the facility for decades to come. This will hav e a dec isive impact on Australian industry's level of involv ement in the project. Australian ac ademic capabilities in integral field spectrographs, fibre optics, focal plane access, turbulenc e profiling and adaptive optics instrumentation hav e already been identified by the int ernational GMT consortium as relev ant to the GMT; Australian industrial strengt hs are also wellmatched to various areas of the project, as has been disc ussed earlier.

o

o

Strategic Assessment Background Every major item of infrastructure proposed here (including strategic options) had, even before the NCRI S process gained traction, been the subject of detailed assess ment of needs and appropriate respons es, both within the Australian astronomy community and with prospective international partners. The Decadal Plan has provided strong guidance and foc us to these strat egic assess ments and has play ed a role in firming up the industry view of the package of infrastructure needs that has now been furt her developed in this NCRIS propos al. The NCRIS proc esses have delivered a high degree of coherenc e in the c ommunity's views as to the strategic role of eac h item of infrastruct ure. This extends to a good understanding of the major questions to be addressed, of the areas in which t hese infrastructure invest ments and Australian skills are lik ely to be able to be competitive, and the way in which the fac ilities will underpin the progressiv e ev olution of an astronomy c apability well beyond the c urrent NCRIS timet able ­ including strategies in res pect of the SKA, the GMT and Antarctic astronomy. A major business case for Australian engagement with the SKA, with MI RA incorporated into the early strat egy on the basis of both its own science merit and its contribution to improving Australia's ability to compete to host the SKA, has already been dev eloped for DEST. It is available to the NCRI S assess ment proc ess. Core capability has been identified enabling Australia to shape the tec hnological solution to the telesc ope design, a comprehensiv e propos al to site the SKA in Australia has been dev eloped, and key alliances are being built. Similar process es are now well underway in relation to the GMT­ though, for good reason, without plans to hav e the instrument loc ated in Australia. The nine members have already invested over US$15M in the project, and a high-risk technic al is sue, relating to the large optics, is being resolv ed with the successful casting of the first of the 8m off-axis mirrors. A full conceptual design review, using a distinguished int ernational panel, was completed in February ­ leading to commit ment to the full design phas e, wit h the legal agreement for this phas e now being finalised.


44 The project is being run by a Board (with two members from eac h partner) that instructs the Project Manager and Project Office. The AAO has just been the subject of a major review (ee http://www.dest.gov.au/ sectors/scienc e_innovation/policy _issues_reviews /reviews/anglo_aus. htm)7, and this process involv ed detailed business planning by AAO. Gemini is now a mat ure operating facility, offering state-of-the-art optic al capabilities; the strat egic issues relate to Australian access and to Australia's role in fut ure instrument ation to extend its capabilities. The strategic value of a functioning Ant Australian work in site characterisation implementation issues, and the staged while purs uing this opportunity to open arctic instrument has been det ermined by world-leading ­ the PILOT process is directed more at practical approach by the cons ortium is designed to minimiz e risks up a new area of astronomy.

There are also extremely important link ages acros s the whole package. Australia's active involv ement in astronomy as a whole is likely to be a key ingredient in its ability to compete to locate the SKA here. Construction of MI RA would enhanc e Australia's competitiveness in relation to the SKA technology pack age. The PILOT project, being led by Australia and being based on Australian territ ory, would add substantially to Aus tralia's wider credentials in optical/infrared astronomy ­ including its plans to compete to supply next generation instruments to the Gemini telescopes and its influence in the planning for the GMT. Commit ment to the GMT its elf makes a strong statement about Australia's commit ment to the medium-term fut ure of astronomy ­ in relation to important fields of inquiry bey ond the c apabilities of Gemini and away from the area of special value of Antarctic astronomy. At the same time, the strategy has been developed wit h a clear rec ognition that Australia's role in international astronomy will be limited by access t o funds and it is very much in the int erests of the astronomy community, and the wider Australian c ommunity, that the av ailable funds be directed for maximum impact and value. This has involv ed sober ass ess ment of those areas in which Australia can be most competitive, and those areas where invest ment will bring maximum benefit to Australia. It has involved the ex plicit de-prioritisation of inv est ment in spac e-based astronomy and in major int ernational facilities suc h as the Atacama Large Millimetre Array (ALMA) These considerations of competitiveness have necessarily included non-astronomy as well as astronomy benefits for Australia, with t wo k ey components being of particular import anc e: o o Australian competitiveness in technology challenges. Australian competitiveness in sites, thus maximising returns relativ ely dis adv antaged regio delivering k ey innov ations as part of solutions to key location; for both PI LOT and MI RA, Australia c an offer s uperb to the country, including through benefits flowing to t wo ns in Australia..

The Vis ion for the Inv estment Package The proposed inv estment package is designed to allow Australia to participat e, and in a range of areas play a leading role, in delivering a transformational change in the capabilities of international astronomy, and in our ass ociat ed understanding of the universe. The combination of dramatic increases in aperture/collecting area, ex ploit ation of observing conditions in Antarctic a and inland Australia, and tec hnological lead in specialist areas, will ensure maximum return to the Australian economy and society. · MI RA offers an order of magnitude inc rease in effective collecting area for Australian radio astronomy, to a design that complies wit h the International SKA Reference Des ign ­ and

7

This plan has been prepared without a ccess to the report of the review comm ittee, which rema ins confidential.


45 would be a key component in establishing the viability and c ost effectiveness of this new approach to radio astronomy. o Progression to the full SKA would mean an ov erall 100-f old increase in effective collecting area relative to anything els e available in the world. PILOT is being planned to ex plore the optical to mid-infrared window on the sky, by allowing larger instruments to take adv antage of t he superb seeing conditions and low infrared background in Antarctica. The GMT will have an effective aperture of nearly 25-metres, offering an order of magnitude inc rease in c ollecting area relative to the largest optic al telescopes, such as Gemini, that are now in service. o Early Australian participation, especially participation as a national as oppos ed to single institutional partner, would giv e Australia negotiating power greater than its share in seeking access to the high value work ­ paralleling Canadian success in this way in relation to the Thirty-meter telescope project. o Securing a substantial share in GMT would secure a key for Australia in the future of optical astronomy that will inevitably move to this new class of optical telescope. The AAO and Gemini elements of the strategy are directed at ens uring maximum v alue is obtained from the existing facilities and skills. These elements will maintain the core of Australian capability in optical astronomy and take advantage of the industry and scienc e opportunities associated with the demands of emerging instruments and technologies. o Access to, or assurance of future access to, the next generation of optical facilities (GMT and Antarctica) could add greatly to the inc entives for building careers in astronomy and encourage the skills to be focussed on gaining maximum advantage from this group of facilities.

·

·

·

A key feature of the propos ed invest ment is that it will be supporting not just a crucial role for Australia in providing transformational astronomic al res earc h, but may in fact underpin a central role for Australian-bas ed facilities that are the best of their type in the world, and largely Australiandeveloped instruments, that operate at the leading edge of this quest. The instruments, and the information generated from these infrastructure facilities, will be available to the international astronomy community, ensuring that the very best use is made of the facilities, and ensuring strong intellectual links between Australia and the best international res earch and educ ational institutions. Key Value Driv ers for the Strategy Australia has a proud hist ory of major contribution to astronomy. Cit ation-based impact assess ments hav e long suggested that Australia `punc hes abov e its weight class' and suggest its competitiveness has been growing strongly over t he past 10 years. Australian astronomy has a strong recent record of real industrial and wider ec onomic spin-offs ­ in large part reflecting the discipline's heavy relianc e on leading edge dat a capture, processing and analysis capability and the extent to which gaining value from the major f acility invest ments has been dependent on ongoing invest ment in adaptation and extension of capability through new and often innov ative instrumentation, stronger networking and s marter software. The primary focus of most astronomy researc h ­ and the proposed applic ation of the res earch infrastructure for whic h NCRI S support is being sought ­ is knowledge deriv ed for its own sake. We view knowledge of the univ erse as essentially a public good, one in whic h there is subst antial interest. While we hav e identified scope for significant tangible benefits from the proposed infrastructure invest ment, we are not arguing that this should constitute the primary rationale. We are proposing support for truly excellent science, based around Australian contribution to international scienc e vent ures involving the best scientists and scienc e in the world and directed at the most fundament al questions about our universe. This certainly application of Astronomy is observing the does not deny the scope for future practical ­ potentially world-changing ­ some of this astronomy knowledge. This has cert ainly been true historically. in fact an enormous physics laborat ory ­ indeed the only such laboratory capable of laws of physics in operation since the formation of the univers e ­ on time and spatial


46 scales not otherwise acc essible. Recent discoveries are already feeding into serious challenges for mainstream views of the laws of physics and will almost certainly feed future changes. Australian astronomy and astronomers have been playing key roles in these developments. A clear example of this lies in the rec ent major Australian contributions to identifying dark energy ­ now recognised as the major constit uent of the Universe, yet is poorly understood. Indeed, the observed value of dark energy is 10120 times great er than that predict ed by current theories. Further obs ervations wit h AAT, Gemini, MIRA and ultimately the SKA and GMT will extend this work, gaining a better understanding of dark energy and helping shape the laws of physics. It is likely that work with significant pros pects for helping bridge a discrepancy in current theories as large as this will flow through into new insights of practical as well as cultural value. We believ e that efforts to forc e the astronomy endeavour to be justified solely or mainly in terms of more tangible returns ­ and especially in the sam e terms that might be applied to industry-orient ed R&D and res earch infrastructure ­ would prove serious ly distorting and would erode Australia's capability and contribution to this science. It would work to the disadvantage of an area of science where Australia is seriously competitive as a leader in key areas of a multinational scienc e endeav our. By the same token, as was discussed earlier, we recognis e the value of these tangible as well as less tangible (but not less import ant) values and the strategy is heavily geared towards Australian engagement that favours these spin-offs from areas in which Australia has competitive advantage. Our reading of the NCRI S roadmap is quite consis tent wit h this interpretation. The rationale set out in the Roadmap is that: · "Astronomy is one of Australia's highest impact sciences. Australian astronomers have play ed leading roles in recent major discov eries, including the acc eleration of the univ erse, the existence of dark energy, a new type of galaxy , a unique double pulsar, and planets orbiting other stars. Our high international standing in astronomy helps support public interest in scienc e and provides powerf ul evidenc e to the rest of the world of Australia's scientific and technological capacity. Astronomy is a rapidly ev olving field in which continued inv estment is essential in order to keep pace wit h global dev elopments." "Development of infrastructure for astronomy involves signific ant collaboration wit h industry and generates technological spin-offs. Early inv est ment in new projects is crucial to securing the most valuable elements of thes e technology development programs and maximising the spin-off benefits for Australia."

·

The first of these points recognis es this primary cultural value, and Australia's demonstrated capacity to contribute at the highest lev el. Further evidence of our track record in influencing astronomy int ernationally was doc umented in the Decadal Plan. The second point recognis es that purs uing thes e central cultural goals need not be at the expens e of good innovation and ec onomic contribution and this argument is developed in more det ail below. We stress the main thrust of the case pres ent ed here for a major NCRIS invest ment in astronomy lies with a combination of: · · Australia's track record in the field, and the evidence of strengt hening competitiveness and recent discoveries of major importance; Strong technology and researc h trends that imply that Australia's competitiveness could decline rapidly without significant invest ment in new infrastructure and in extending the life of existing facilities still capable of making major c ontributions to leading edge science; The fact that the sector is well organis ed and has developed, and signed off on, an affordable, coherent strategy that will allow Australia to build its capability to maintain, and in select ed areas expand, its competitiveness, to c ontinue to deliv er exc ellent scienc e off the back of a quantum leap in instrument capabilities over the next few years. o This demonstrated ability for a coordinat ed sector respons e is strongly supportiv e of NCRI S objectives and provides good evidence of t he ability of the community to

·


47 follow through in taking full advantage of the opportunities that would be created by the proposed researc h infrastructure and assoc iat ed acc ess arrangements. Interest in astronomy extends well beyond the astronomy community. There is wide public interest, typically starting in childhood and characterised by the wide media int erest in the new discoveries and by the significant popular science coverage on television, in books etc. Stars and planets ­ and recent Australian success es in disc overing over 20 new planets is relev ant here ­ are highly accessible, and of interest to, to the general public. The rate at whic h our `model' of the univ erse is ev olving, the strangeness of the models that are emerging and the notion that space stands at the frontier for future ex ploration are all f actors underpinning wider community interest. Tangible benefits ­ Options for Australia By far the most appropriate paradigm f or looking at the tangible benefits is that of option value ­ recognising the value that lies in the prospects for deliv ering valuable outcomes in the future. This is a modern, state-of-the-art paradigm for v aluing invest ments that incorporat e high lev els of risk ­ and is theref ore discussed in more detail in the ex plicit discussion of risk management. The options view is about securing access to upside opportunities as well as covering downside risks ­ and astronomy invest ments offer significant upside value to the Australian community. · · Australia's c ompetitiveness in siting major facilities has a substantial option value ­ via the pros pects for inv est ment into Australia from other project participants. This was clearly indicat ed through the analysis undertak en last year by ACIL Tas man, developing the business case for Australian participation in the SKA project. o That analysis point ed to a substantial value for the option to be the select ed site, even after taking into account significant risks to t he project proc eeding, to Australia being the chos en site etc. The gross option v alue of the tangible benefits from Australian participation was conservatively v alued at around $130m (present value basis ) ­ before attributing any value to the astronomy outcomes seen as the primary rationale for the inv estment. o This option value tak es into account risk-weighting for the chance that Australia is not selected as the site. The potential tangible value was in fact conserv atively estimated to be just under $250m (pres ent value basis). o The option value of thes e tangible benefits alone exceed by around $30m the total assessed risk-weighted cost of participation in the SKA vent ure. The same option modelling pointed to the `opportunity cost' of any developments that lower Australia's being chosen as the site. o Halving Australia's prospects from thos e assumed would drop the v alue of the option by about $30m (present value basis) ­ in return for a risk-weight ed cost saving of around $10m. We stress that inclusion of the value of the astronomy and other intangible benefits would imply a muc h great er net cost than is indicated by these tangible figures. o A corollary is that our propos ed commit ment, supported by NCRI S funding, to proc eed with the MI RA radio telescope developm ent in WA will, in addition to the direct science benefits from this order of magnitude improvement ov er current Australian radio astronomy capability, deliver significant additional v alue via an increase in the value ­ to the Australian economy ­ of Australia's SKA options. It is important als o to rec ognise that Australia's on-going involv ement in a major capacity in optical and infrared astronomy, including the maintenance of capability and reput ation but extended by our clear commit ment to remaining at the visionary edge of astronomy in key niches across the spectrum will add directly to two key groups of options: o It too enhances Australia's pros pects for locating the SKA, being part of a broad technic al capability, supporting cross-spectrum researc h and perceptions by the international astronomy c ommunity of national commit ment to these programs. o Clear evidenc e of on-going commit ment across appropriate areas of astronomy, coupled with what is implied for maint enance of local capability in astronomy and astronomy instrumentation and tec hnologies can be ex pected to add significantly to the likelihood of Australia being selected to site the SKA.

·

·

·


48 · Even more directly, it becomes a key part of Australia's competitiveness for the siting of an Antarctic optical instrument. The propos ed PI LOT program, for which NCRI S funding is sought, is expected to add significantly to the strength of Australia's cas e ­ while also enhanc ing the wider value, and perc eptions of value, in Australia's Antarctic research activities. o In addition to being able to offer a suitable site, Australia is particularly well-plac ed to bring to bear its proximity to the site in offering support during construction and operation, its established presence in the Antarctic Territory with a major science program and the associat ed logistical support, including air and sea links, its experience in construction, facilities operation and science in Ant arctica and ex plicit relev ant technical skills in relation to remote power generation, robotics, and hars henvironment engineering. In respect of the GMT, we noted earlier that a key benefit of serious engagement now in the design phas e ­ and indeed of serious national engagement that can be deliv ered through NCRI S involvement ­ is the scope this offers for Australia to hav e influence that is disproportionat ely large relative to its formal s hare. o In the `politics' of thes e international science cons ortia, it is greatly to the advantage of a project to hav e a `national' partner. o Canada has ass umed this role in relation to the Thirty-Meter Telescope and has consequently won a large volume of the high-intellectual value work, despite being a minor participant. o Australia is well-plac ed to offer the GMT project highly relev ant industrial ex pertis e in areas suc h as control systems, vibrational analysis, fluid dynamics, systems engineering and project management ­ as well as its direct science c apabilities in instrumentation and the relev ant astrophysics. Finally, as was recognised in the roadmap, it is in the nat ure of modern dev elopment of astronomy facilities that the major opportunities to share in the opport unities for industry collaboration and technology dev elop accrue to those who establish early participation in the emerging projects and especially to thos e who bring to the projects high prospectivity approaches to addressing the key technology and cost challenges.

·

·

The Dec adal Plan, supported by this NCRIS proposal, is pitched strongly at securing these opportunities through early and influential involv ement in the project planning and by bringing specific technology as well as site location strategies to the table. Exploiting competitive advantage The dominant trend in creating leading edge infras tructure in astronomy ­ in optical/I R and in radio ­ is towards substantial expansion the receiv ing areas of the telescopes, to deliv er greater resolution, combined with wider data capture, analysis and interpretation capabilities. In the case of optical/I R, a limit ation on the relationship bet ween res olution and telesc ope diameter has been remov ed, through the introduction of adaptive optics to reduc e any at mospheric distortions. In the case of radio astronomy, the trend is towards net working rec eiving instruments locat ed ac ross very large areas ­ c haracteris ed by the SKA propos al, but already reflected in substantial national and international net working of establis hed instrument s. These trends are creating increasingly demanding requirements for site location. For optical/infrared instruments, high altitude, low moisture and low light conditions are strongly favoured. For radio instruments, access to large s tretches of radio-quiet land, ideally capable of having the radio quietness lock ed in for the lif e of the instrument, is important. In all cas es, access to sound loc al infrastructure and the technical capabilities needed to s upport a high technology invest ment are requirements. Ultimately, the c ore with the people and advantage in a field Australia has in the designed to maintai capability needed for excellent astronomy lies, as with other areas of science, their skills. Excellence in the skill set is a central element of competitive that is increasingly competing for access to facilities located around the world. past proven highly competitive in this way, and a key element of the strategy is n this competitiv e adv antage. These skills include those relev ant to the cost-


49 effective delivery of capability to telescopes via s mart instrumentation and data capt ure and analysis capabilities. Key planks of the strategy include support for Aust ralia's efforts, bas ed on cost-effectiv eness princ iples, for being the site for the SKA and, if proven appropriate, for the first large optical instrument inv est ment in Antarctica. Note that the immediate invest ment case is not seeking funding for either of thes e proposals ­ both of which involv e longer time scales than the current round of NCRIS and neither of which is yet proven. The role in support of these efforts seen for NCRI S is in contributing to t wo new instruments ­ MI RA in WA and PILOT (subject to successf ul further investigations) on the high plateau of the Australian Antarctic Territory. These facilities would: · · · · greatly enhance Australian and international capability in these two areas; provide prot otyping capabilities suited to ass essing and, if appropriat e, refining the plans for the SKA and larger Antarctic instruments; contribute to Australia's capability, and wider perc eptions of this capability, to compete to be the pref erred site for the main instruments; be suit ed to networking and integration into the SKA and Antarctic astronomy capability ­ adding to both the value of the options built int o these instruments, and to their ex pected economic liv es.

The strategy als o incorporat es commit ments to ex cellence in scienc e in relation to instruments located, or likely in the fut ure to be loc ated, elsewhere ­ notably in Chile and Hawaii, where Australia has a well established s et of relations hips to provide a firm basis for suc h dev elopments. Included here, in a manner analogous to the long t erm options being sec ured for radio and Antarctic astronomy, would be the development of options for serious engagement with the next generation (and beyond) of ELTs. As was argued earlier, Australia is able to offer c ompetitive skills across a broad range of the c apabilities that will be needed for this next generation of instruments as well as to ens ure that maximum value is obtained from the established instruments. More fundamentally, the strategy offers the collect ive capability to continue to compete and contribute at the leading edges of international ast ronomy, while ens uring that the full range of capabilities Australia offers in relation to future astronomy ­ from sit es for telesc opes, through main instrument design and other instrumentation through to the planning and exec ution of great science using the instruments ­ is able to compet e on merit. Under thes e circumstances, we fully expect Australia to continue to `punc h well above its weight class' in astronomy for many years to come. Cost effective leverage Astronomy is a truly international science that is now highly dependent on internationally funded and operat ed major infrastructure facilities. From an NCRIS pers pective, there are real strengths in this. The need for such facilities, and their high cost, has created the need to develop sophisticated systems for sharing costs and for managing acc ess to ens ure that the best science is undertak en by the best scientists ­ with appropriat e technical support in the facilities. Over the past 30 years, the Anglo-Australian Telescope has been an Australian-based ex ample of this approach in optic al astronomy, while the ATNF has served as a similar example for almost 20 years. Clos ely analogous systems apply to the Gemini telescopes and are planned for the Giant Magellan, the Antarctic PI LOT and the SKA facilities. The principles embodied in thes e systems closely parallel the vision developed in the NCRI S Roadmap ­ in relation to both the collaborativ e design and development of facilities and the bas is on whic h access is provided. The Australian astronomy community welcomes the NCRIS program as an important sourc e of funding critic al to its Decadal Plan and to ensuring that Australia is able to maint ain and build its excellenc e and competitiveness in this major area of international science.


50 The strategy as developed does offer very substantial opportunities for leverage, in the sens e of Australian scientists gaining access to internationally leading-edge facilities that are only made possible by the lev el of contribution of funds from other c ountries, and by the ability of Australian institutions to bring considerable additional resources to both the planning and the us e of the facilities. There are now very large size economies in both optical/I R and radio astronomy. The strategy is designed to exploit thes e size economies and the commit ment of other c ountries and other institutions to this major area of research to deliv er a dramatic increas e in the c apability of the facilities to which Australian astronomy has ac cess. The s ame strat egy will underpin on-going value in aging but still productive facilities in Australia, inc luding the AAO, and the Siding Spring, Park es, Narrabri and Mopra facilities. A feature of the continued eff new instruments, is that they This flows from the demonstr that can support short-listing operate, instruments. ective operat will allow opt ated value of of targets for ion of these facilities, supported where appropriate by imis ation of operating strat egy for the future telesc opes. thes e processes in delivering wider field of view surv eys the larger, and more time-c onstrained and expensiv e to

Opti ons-based planning as an i ntegral part of the Busi ness Case As discuss ed abov e, cost effective invest ment in major astronomy infrastructure is necess arily done on an adaptive basis, precluding rigid deterministic roll-out strategies. The proposed invest ment plan embodies latest thinking ­ bas ed around the principles of risk-based invest ment planning and management with a strong emphasis on maximising the value of the options created through the process. This is a logical extension of the thinking and options modelling already used in the ACI L Tas man business case for the SKA, and disc ussed above. Specific option-based planning tools will assist the c ommunity and the government in managing the proc ess to deliver greatest value. As wit h most options -based planning, these approaches are ex pect ed to allow significant savings ­ through the av oidanc e of unnec essary inv est ments ­ and the achievement of growt h in the v alue of outputs via the efficient redirection of these funds and through the identification of more valuable ways of dev eloping the infrastructure package over time. This flexibility is a strength of the strat egy. The financial plan set out below is predic ated on an NCRI S budget of $45m, not because of a shortage of high value applications for funds in excess of that level but becaus e of feedback from the NCRI S Committee of likely funding levels for the Astronomy Capability. The proposal has inherent cost uncertainty ­ disc ussed furt her in below and in Attachment G. Furthermore, aspect s of it ­ notably some costs are link ed, ev en within the next 5 years, to outcomes is in fact here that the potential cost of the $45m N CRIS budget c apparent. relation t the PILO from the onstraint o risk management T strategy ­ mean that first stage invest ment. It bec omes quit e

Major elements of the invest ment package ­ both this constrained package and the communities preferred and less constrained package, are quite `lumpy'. Construction of PI LOT, if it proc eeds, is estimated to cost Australia around $5m. Managing wit hin the NCRIS limit to ensure the flexibility is retained to allocate funds to PI LOT construction, if proven to be appropriate, places its own constraints on the form and timing of other elements of the package. Similarly, ac hieving the des ired goal of a total 10% Australian share in the GMT Design Development Phas e, bas ed on the succ ess of the first stage of engagement, can only be realis ed if sufficient flexibility is maintained in the strategic options part of the overall NCRIS package. A total NCRI S commit ment of $2.8M is required to maintain Australia's 10% share (wit h ANU) during Years 2 and 3 of the DDP.


51 There are inevitable compromises in this process, but great care has been taken to assemble a mix of core and optional invest ment elements that work within the constraints as cost effectively as possible. PILOT Stage 1 will build valuable infrastructure as sets in the form of an improv ed understanding of the engineering requirements for Antarctic astronomy, detailed design drawings for Stage 2 if this still looks cost effective, and ultimately in contributing to a substantially larger int ernational facility, with greatly expanded capability. Stage 1 is an investment in information options as part of a sensible strategy for rolling out astronomy infrastructure in Australia's Antarctic Territory. The strategy certainly allows for the possibility that the best use of resources beyond Stage 1 may be redeploy ment to bring forward some other elements of the package and deferral of the next stage in Ant arctica ­ this is just sound planning strategy, underpinned by the options paradigm. The planned div ersion of res ources would be to high value us es, already identified in the Decadal Plan but tentatively delayed bec aus e of the budget constraint. Bringing the other elements forward can be expected to deliv er fundamental benefits ­ for example in the form of elev ated pros pects for an ex panded role in delivering the high-intellectual value work for the GMT as was discussed earlier. This is the flip side of the `opportunity cost' of the funds c onstraints that apply and to which the strategy has been adapt ed. More generally, the astronomy community clearly recognis es that the strat egic options that have been identified, especially PILOT Construction and GMT engagement, are not scientific ally interc hangeable. In terms of the Australian and international astronomy endeavours, they are in fact strongly complementary ­ and the trade-off involved as a res ult of funding constraints is difficult and costly. However, the process is designed to ens ure that the ARA Board will be able to make decisions at the appropriate time be based on the best available information. These concepts are abs olutely central to the rationale for the PILOT and GMT strat egies ­ both of which are ess entially about securing infrastruct ure options relevant to the next generation of technologies ­ but als o hav e a lot to offer in respect of the MI RA invest ment (of value in its own right and for the SKA options it supports) and for the AAO and Gemini strategies, that are again of value in their own right and are expected to provide valuable support for Australia's role in the next generation of large astronomy projects. This approach feeds into the financial plan and the risk management strategy,


52 Role of NCRI S Funds The following comments apply to the role of NCRI S funds in the ov erall int ernational infrastructures to which NCRIS funds will be applied:: Gemi ni o Gemini deliv ers to Australia a capability that would be impossible with Australian funds alone o Australia has specific capabilities to offer the cons ortium ­ in instrument design as well as in use of the main instruments ­ that could lead to a loss of value of outputs from this collaboration wit hout NCRI S invest ment G MT o NCRI S funding would allow Australian participation to be a `national', as oppos ed to institutional engagement. This doubles influence and inv olvement, and build momentum towards a bid for funding for the c onst ruction phase.. o A corollary is that NCRI S funding ­ if feasible wit hin the difficult trade-offs needed across the `optional' elements of this inv estment package ­ could sec ure a disproportionat e level of Australian inv olv ement in deliv ering the industrial and technic al package need to construct the GMT. o Furthermore, from the point of view of Australian astronomy, exclusion from the early stages of the next generation of optical instruments means that thes e instruments will not nec essarily be aligned with the Australian astronomy's priorities and strengths, will not be designed or built here, and may not be directly available to Australian astronomers when they are operational. AAO, MIRA and PI LOT o It is unambiguously clear that the proposed science infrastructure will not proc eed without strong Australian inv olvement, and this clearly requires significant funding from NCRIS. o Other sourc es of Australian funds have been inc orporated to the maximum ext ent judged feasible. o These initiativ es are all being driven by Australia ­ using NCRI S invest ment as a catalyst ­ but can then command significant funds from other sourc es. o LIEF inv estment may also be brought to bear on t argeted University research outcomes, both early on in the development of these infrastructures and, following their elevation to `national facility' status made pos sible with NCRI S inv estments through invest ment in additional instrumentation and other items of infrastructure. Detailed fi nancial plan Financial planning has inv olved a range of steps: · Preparation of detailed budgets for each of the key initiatives included in the strategy ­ the `Strategic Options' items as well as Priority items o based on the best information now available; o based around firm and highly prospective commit ments from ot her parties; and o inclusiv e of reasonable contingencies so that the c osts can reasonably be interpret ed as estimates of ex pected cost Identification of flexibility inherent in the `Strat egic Options' components, and to an extent in the det ail of the Priority components; and o development of an ov erall package that inc ludes all items. o "Weights" have emerged from the options model, and from the requirement to `cut the cloth to fit' ­ they can be interpreted as attaching to the indiv idual components a likelihood of exclusion or scaling back to allow the total pack age to be deliv ered within $45m env elope. In most cases, we ex pect t his to imply deferral beyond the 5 years, rat her than cancellation, of these package components. Def erral itself may have signific ant impact on Australia's ability to particpate in, and deriv e benefit from, the international projects that make up the options component.

·


53 Effectively, these allow modelling of a total package in whic h det ails of the final composition can only be det ermined cost effectively after the inv est ment proc ess starts. Wit h thes e elements, it is possible to compose `whole of package' budgets, inclusive of this risk weighting. o # Tables4&5 from section 2 to be included here Attachment E provides muc h great er dis aggregation of thes e tables, and discuss es the basis on which the cost estimates have been reached. Impl ementati on ­ Timelines and i nstitutional arrangements To be completed Operations beyond 2011 The abov e budgets, the options based approach t o flexible planning and the risk management strategy disc ussed below, and in Attachment G and the proposed gov ernance arrangements all support the view that this strategy has excellent prospects for financial viability through to 2011. The extensive experience that Australian astronomy has in the management of large infrastructure facilities, such as those operated by AAO and ATNF; the analogous established ex perience in relation to ov ers eas infrastructure, such as through the Gemini Consortium; and the fact that senior management bringing this experience will be heavily involv ed in the proposed inv est ment proc ess; all add to the c onfidenc e with which this can be asserted. Revenues bey ond 2011 are not as certain for some of the package components. In each case, operating costs inclusive of periodic normal replac ement and upgrade requirements hav e been estimated ­ based on ext ensiv e experienc e with these types of facilities. Realistic ally, necess ary to will need to c AAO - as the role. for at least some elements ­ suc h as continued operation of AAO bey on assume that some form of successor to NCRIS will be available, or else lose. The AAT is ex pected to hav e a scientific lifetime extending at least national optic al/infrared observ atory - is envisaged to hav e a continuing through somet hing like NCRI S is 2011. There is no great financial discussed in Appendix G and, wit wever be much wider and more c also a nec risk inv olv h warning, onc erning d 2011 ­ it is the facility to 2015; the long-t erm

For Gemini access, block funding for operations to continue beyond market in access to Gemini, as is able to withdraw. There would ho astronomy.

essary ass umption ed here ­ there is a Australia should be risks for Australian

For MIRA, CSI RO ATNF has already indicated a willingness to assume res ponsibility for operating costs beyond 2011 ­ though the strat egy will involve looking to incorporation of MI RA into an Australian-based SKA strat egy, with funding for that being dealt with as a separate major invest ment item, as was noted in the NCRI S Roadmap. None of the GMT DPP or PILOT stages have any costs projected beyond 2011. Should work proc eed to construction of PILOT, completion is planned during the life of the NCRIS proc ess. However, there will then be an operational facility with an ongoing need for s upport. The Concordia Station at Dome C is jointly operated by the Frenc h and Italian National Antarctic Programs and costs approx imately 4. 5m per annum. There are planned to be six scientists working year-round at Concordia, so if one of thes e is assigned to PILOT it would be reas onable to attribut e one sixth of the total operational cost of the facility to PI LOT ­ or AUD 1.2m/annum.


54 Coinv est ment by the UNSW in a PI LOT `Science Centre" will provide scientific support staff to ensure that Australian astronomers can use the telescope to its full pot ential, while operation of the telescope itself and data curation would be the res pons ibility of the (fully Australian owned) AngloAustralian Observ atory.


55 ATTACHME NT A LIST OF ASSETS

The nature, ownership, value and ex pected date of acquisition of significant assets should be recorded. To be included later ATTACHME NT B CONSTI TUTI ON / MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDI NG

Any company constitution, memorandum of understanding or other agreement relating to entities that will own or operate the NCRIS facilities should be provided if available. Otherwise, a detailed description should be provided of the arrangement s that are proposed to be implemented. Draft ARA constitution currently in a separate doc ument. To be included here before 8th September 2006.


56 ATTACHME NT C ORGANI SATION CHARTS

Organisation charts explaining the relationships between entities inv olved in the project, or showing the management structure within relevant organis ations should be provided. Gemini and AAO

PPARC (UK)

DEST NCRI S ARA

A RC

Anglo Australian Telescope Board
AAO Australian Gem ini P roject Office

National Sc ienc e Foundation (US)
Gemini

Figure x: Cash flow bet ween legal entities for the AAO and the Australian share of Gemini

Notes: · While the AATB c ontinues to operate as a separate entity with UK involv ement, the governanc e for bot h the AAO and Gemini Telescopes will involv e bot h ARA and the AATB. The AATB will be directly responsible for AAO operations, AAO instrumentation development, and the Australian Gemini Office which facilitates access to Gemini for Australian astronomers. · The NSF in the USA is res ponsible for Gemini Operations. The NSF has the Gemini Board to manage the Gemini Observ atory, and Australia has one seat on that board. MI RA

NS F

NRC

DEST NCRI S

State Government of WA

US Institutions

Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics

ARA DoIR CSIRO
Australian MIRA P roject Office Radio Astronom Park

y

Lead Institution Australian LFD consortium

Dotted lines indicat e MOUs Figure x: Cash flow bet ween legal entities for MI RA


57

Notes: · CSIRO also mak es in-kind c o-inv est ment to xNTD component of MI RA. · Australian MIRA project office will contract with Australian Universities, institutions and industry to deliv er work pack ages/components of MI RA as appropriate. · The relationship bet ween CSIRO, and DoI R as managers of the Radio Astronomy Park, may be est ablished by an MOU. The agreement to site MI RA on the RAP will be established between DOIR and the relev ant lead agencies. · Overs eas institutions may contribut e to xNTD portion of MI RA. · A Lead Agency of the Australian LFD Consortium (currently University of Melbourne) manages LFD portion of MIRA. The Lead Agency has applied for ARC funding to support construction of LFD. · US institutions build US portion of LFD (funds from NSF, MI T, AFOSR, CFA-Harvard) · ANU is also a signatory to the LFD MOU, but as a separate member from the Australian LFD c ons ortium (omitted from the above diagram simply for clarity). · CSIRO or Australian Lead Agency integrates LFD into MI RA us ing NCRI S res ourc es. · WA Govt, through DOI R support Radio Astronomy Park.

PILOT EU FP6 CNRS UNS W
PILOT Science Office

DEST NCRI S ARA

ARENA Australian Institution
NA1 NA2 NA3 Australian P ILOT Project O ffice

Dotted lines indicat e MOUs Figure x: Cash flow bet ween legal entities for PILOT Notes · CNRS is the French Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, and is the contracting agency to the European FP6 program on behalf of ARENA. · ARENA is the FP6 "Coordinating Activity" for Antarctic Astronomy. It stands for Antarctic Research; a European net work for Astronomy. · ARENA is funded for three years, beginning in 2006. · The Australian Project Office will manage, and allocate funding to, a series of work packages within Australian industry and ac ademia, leading to the production of a detailed design for the Critical · Design Review of the project by ARA. · This cash flow chart is appropriate for Stage 1 of PILOT. If PILOT proc eeds to the construction and operational phases, it will be des irable for a single PILOT Board to be created, with equal European and Australian representation. · The Australian PILOT Project Office would be establis hed by ARA within an existing Australian institution with a good track record in the management of large projects.


58


59

ATTACHME NT D

CURRI CULUM VI TAE FOR KEY PERSONNEL

Where possible, curric ulum v itae for k ey pers onnel (maximum of 2 pages per person) inv olved in the management of the NCRI S facilities s hould be provided. Chair of Board, Executiv e Officer ATTACHME NT E To be completed IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY


60 ATTACHME NT F ARA FI NANCI AL STATEMENTS

A financial plan including projected financial statements should be provided as specified in Section 3.4 of the NCRIS Inv est ment Framework Budget ­ Statement of Financ ial Performance
2006/07 Revenue ARA members ARC NCRIS Total Expenses International Access Oper ating Profit / Loss -$2,143,500 $1,350,000 -$2,486,667 -$2,060,033 $5,168,667 -$3,766,000 -$2,088,092 $4,030,666 -$3,828,666 -$2,116,792 $9,932,000 -$3,121,833 -$1,647,161 $5,638,667 $13,203,166 $10,055,578 $26,120,000 $3,433,500 $3,493,500 $60,000 $164,300 $867,000 $8,684,067 $9,715,367 $174,158 $889,000 $8,821,600 $9,884,758 $184,605 $911,000 $14,781,853 $15,877,458 $195,681 $933,000 $9,278,980 $10,407,661 $778,744 $3,600,000 $45,000,000 $49,378,744 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Total

Budget ­ Statement of Cas h Flows
Cash Flow Cash inflow Cash outflow Net cas h flow Cash at start of per iod Cash at end of per iod 2006/07 $3,493,500 -$3,493,500 $0 $0 $0 2007/08 $9,715,367 -$8,466,700 $1,248,667 $0 $1,248,667 2008/09 $9,884,758 -$9,854,092 $30,666 $1,248,667 $1,279,333 2009/10 $15,877,458 -$15,845,458 $32,000 $1,279,333 $1,311,333 2010/11 $10,407,661 -$11,718,994 -$1,311,333 $1,311,333 $0 Total $49,378,744 -$49,378,744 $0

Budget ­ Statement of Financ ial Position
30-Jun- 07 ASSETS Cash Total c urrent AAT instr ument LFD PILOT DDP xNTD Total non-curr ent Total assets LIABILITIES Total liabilities Equity Total Equity $1,350,000 $6,518,667 $10,549,333 $20,481,333 $26,120,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $350,000 $0 $500,000 $500,000 $1,350,000 $1,350,000 $1,248,667 $1,248,667 $2,070,000 $0 $1,000,000 $2,200,000 $5,270,000 $6,518,667 $1,279,333 $1,279,333 $3,870,000 $0 $1,000,000 $4,400,000 $9,270,000 $10,549,333 $1,311,333 $1,311,333 $5,370,000 $2,300,000 $1,000,000 $10,500,000 $19,170,000 $20,481,333 $0 $0 $5,920,000 $4,600,000 $1,000,000 $14,600,000 $26,120,000 $26,120,000 30-Jun- 08 30-Jun- 09 30-Jun- 10 30-Jun- 11


61

ATTACHME NT G Background

RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY

Any large infrastructure project entails risks ­ invariably in relation to cost estimat es and rev enues, commonly in relation to tec hnic al and legal matters, changing `mark ets' and changing tec hnological possibilities. There can als o be risks of disput e within consortia. Both this propos ed NCRIS invest ment strategy, and the wider Decadal Plan Strategy, involv e large, high cost inv estments in long-liv ed research infrastructure ass ets ­ with subst antial on-going operating, maintenance and upgrade costs, as well as up-front capital costs. Bot h of financial necessity and to ensure great est value is extracted from the assets, the invest ment and acc ess will be int ernational in nat ure. The technologies underpinning astronomical research are developing rapidly, as is the underlying science. A corollary of the latter is that there is particularly high uncertainty regarding the particular way in whic h the infrastructure will be deployed in the future, and how it will need to be modified over time to maintain its value and relev anc e. As was argued in Section 6, we believe strongly that the NCRI S process es need to recognis e and value the strategy flexibility that has emerged as t he sound approach to deliv ering the best and most effective scienc e where these types of unc ertainty aris e ­ and that has been built into this astronomy strategy. To a large extent, the uncert ainty and risks that need to be managed (and ex ploit ed) stem from recent successes of thes e large international collaborations ­ successes in both driv ing innovation to deliv er rapidly expanding capability and in demonstrating striking succ ess in implementing these technologies and in delivering an underst anding of the univ erse that is now improving exponentially. Two of the major science innovations driving this success ­ and t wo areas where Australian science has been active ­ are: · The development of credible tec hnological strategies ­ including packages incorporating the xNTD and other ICT tec hnologies in whic h Australia is playing a key development role ­ to enable a radio telescope of the scale of the SKA, wit h its two orders of magnitude improvement in collection area, to be serious ly planned. o The MI RA propos al includes the first `production' deploy ment of the x NTD technology in a major instrument. This is ex pected to add substantially to pros pects for this technology being taken up by the SKA consortium and to Australia's pros pects for hosting the SKA ­ reducing 2 key ris ks associated with the overall astronomy strategy and the pros pects for large tangible benefits from the NCRI S invest ment. The development of adaptive optics that has made practic al the development of very large land bas ed optical telescopes, because of the ability now available to adjust for atmospheric distortion. o Wit hout this dev elopment, the shape of the astronomy strategy would be strikingly different ­ with muc h less emphasis on expanding apert ure, possibly wit h a great er emphasis on improv ed instrumentation for existing instruments but with nothing lik e the capability improvement now possible, and probably with expectations of a diminishing role for terrestrial optical astronomy. o but the international community has focused on resolving this problem and has set in train the development of a land-based telesc ope strategy for the next few decades that is set to deliv er a massiv e improv ement in precision and in the power offered to address the big questions.

·


62 The way that the development of thes e capabilities, and their subs equent translation into revised international astronomy strategy, provide major ex amples of how these types of risks can be (and will continue to be) managed in astronomy while pushing out, and funding, major adv anc es in the research infrastructure. More generally though, what is proposed here is a major collaborative invest ment effort. There are technic al risks to be managed, alongside of financ ial and legal risks. The need for coordination across a range of Australian institutions, but in the case of some of the infrastructure across international cons ortia, creates management risks for long-liv ed ass et invest ments as well as offering powerf ul checks and balanc es, substantial risk spreading and even supporting a potential market for trading in cons ortium members hip whic h in itself offers an important form of risk management. Key Risks Needi ng Management Specific risks that hav e been the focus of this risk management strategy include: · Tec hnical risks ass ociated with science and engineering iss ues yet to be resolved but where, for reasons outlined earlier, it is not usually cost effective to wait till all such iss ues have been resolv ed before commencing work on t hese large infrastructure projects. o These are naturally greatest for the most innovativ e new elements of the package ­ PILOT, GMT and MI RA, but in principle apply to all components given the necess ary commit ment to on-going innovation. Associat ed uncertainty that flows from the `lumpiness' of some of the possibilities ­ notably but not only PILOT Construction ­ where uncertainty about whet her it will make sense for this to proc eed creat es a need for budget management across the package to ensure that maximum v alue can be deriv ed from the av ailable funds. Cost uncertainty in the components of the strategy , beyond the tec hnic al uncertainties, due to uncertainties about project detail and cost; o Every large infrastructure project involv es such uncertainties ­ and in general the greater the innovation, or the special environment in whic h the project is to be located, the great er thes e unc ertainties. o They need not all be downside risks, but avoiding this requires caref ul management. o These uncertainties are typically managed in planning stages through contingencies, but this on its own creat es a risk of not being able to get full value out of a constrained budget, bec aus e of the lev el of c ontingency inv olved. o This class of unc ertainty is again lik ely to be great est for the most innov ative projects ­ where contingency to cover `sc ope creep' to deal with unanticipated problems c an be subst antial, wit h a corresponding risk of underutilisation. Cost uncertainty attributable to exchange rate risk s. o Again, thes e can involv e upside as well as downside. o Commercial mechanis ms are available for managing thes e risks, but they are not costless. o These risks are lik ely to be greatest for projects involving high lev els of inputs from overs eas ­ again tending to be the innovative new collaborative ventures, in contrast, for ex ample, to the on-going operation of the AAO. Gemini subscription rates are denoted in US dollars and therefore als o involve a significant risk to be managed. `Market risks' ass ociated with the possibility that demand for access to the facilities could fall, reducing the scope for deriving rev enues from the associated acc ess charges. ARA and associated `joint venture' risks. o The proposal will have ARA res ponsible for the sound management of a large budget ­ over $50m over 5 years and with scope for influence ov er a substantially larger total budget. o ARA will involve a shareholding s panning a somewhat div erse range of Australian organis ations, wit h the potential for divergence in expect ations and demands of the company ­ as wit h commercial joint ventures.

·

·

·

· ·


63 There may be important issues of IP ownership and of ARA decisions that might be subject to legal challenge. o Risks that need to be address ed range from inadequac ies in governanc e and legal through to fracturing of the business model. Associat ed risks to sustainability of funding beyond 2011. o

·

Strategy Against this background, important elements in the overall risk management include: · The governance arrangements that will apply to the management of the proposed NCRIS invest ment, as doc umented in Part 5 of the applic ation. These include reporting and accountability; perf ormance and risk monitoring; and res ponse strat egies; adaptive planning; and alloc ation of responsibilities in respect of specific risk elements. o Substantial progress has already been made in implementing these arrangements through ARA, with the strong support of all key participants. This progress is reported in detail in Part 5 of the submission and again in Attac hment E. o These arrangements include spec ific safeguards to prot ect the interests of the Commonwealth. o The long-standing success of int ernational c ollaboration arrangements in delivering and maintaining these large infrastructure projects is another source of confidenc e in the containment of risks, further reinf orced by the extensiv e ex perienc e that Australian astronomy has with suc h arrangements ­ experience that will be incorporated into ARA as well as the participant Australian organis ations. The high levels of international leverage incorporated in the strategy. o These have the dual effects of limiting the exposure of NCRI S and other Australian astronomy infrastructure invest ment (and allowing this invest ment to be spread ov er a more diverse `portfolio' of suc h inv estments) and the valuable counterc hecks provided by all the other participants in vetting the true value of the proposed invest ments and their management. o As was not ed abov e, these also create a true market in level of cons ortium participation. This is explicit in the option, identified as part of the strategy, for Australia to ex pand its participation in the Gemini Consortium. o In principle, this international div ersity of participation als o opens opport unities for internally managing exchange rat e risks ­ subject to appropriate i9nternal arrangements for sharing of the risks. The presence of est ablis hed arrangements for access to major astronomy research infrastructure, including for the AAO and Gemini, and existing Australian ex perience with ATNF ­ and the track record of these arrangements in dealing with changing demands and consortium membership and shares; and o international acceptanc e and support for thes e arrangements as a basis for mov ing forward with consortia planning for new facilities. The fact that thes e infrastructure facilities are being designed for maximum flexibility over the planned operating liv es ­ flexibility to accomm odat e new instruments and us es, and to switch to alternative functions in the fut ure as later generation instruments become available. Reinforcing the last point, strong reliance throughout the implementation strategies on cautious project development with an ey e to managing risks using state-of-the-art methods for planning, rolling out and managing long-lived invest ments under high unc ertainty. o This incorporat es strong elements of options-based planning ­ des igned to manage downside risks while keeping access to upside opportunities, and wit h a very strong emphasis on the value of flexibility in the invest ments in skills and infrastructure. o A major ex ample of this in relation to the Decadal strategy is the options model prepared as part of the SKA business case ­ wit h its demonstrated value in guiding major strategic invest ment decisions and in valuing the ability to reduc e uncertainties before making irreversible commitments. This model was discussed further in Part 6.

·

·

·

·


64 The MI RA project is in fact an int egral part of the SKA options strat egy. A precisely analogous options approac h is propos ed for the PILOT project, avoiding irrev ersible commit ment to major capital costs until a detailed design study and risk analysis hav e been c ompleted. This is a strategic invest ment in better information to manage the risks of inappropriate invest ment. In this context, we see the risks of not properly ass essing the option of a major optic al instrument in Antarctica as being as relev ant to risk management as the risk of commiting to the construction of such an instrument prematurely. The package character of the proposed inv est ments ­ covering internationally competitive capability across the spectral range. This alone of fers substantial flexibility for adapting the invest ment emphasis over time, bas ed on the insights and technologies then available, and offers strong prospects for Australia being an important participant in major outcomes from international astronomy, regardless of where they fall. Structure of the propos ed package ­ across both high priority (core) invest ment elements and a pack age of strategic options to be managed in the basis of emerging information on project costs, from PILOT Stage 1, from the Gemini Cons ortium and from the GMT Consortium. o The priority elements of the package (c omposed of AAO, MI RA, Gemini at current levels, Pilot Design, GMT DDP and Governanc e) has been costed at bet ween $40..1mand $43.5m, inclusiv e of planning contingencies. The variation relates to the current uncert ainty ov er the level of invest ment required from the Gemini partners for the "As pen" instrumentation program, as discussed below. o The package of strategic options, compos ed of PI LOT Construction (up to $5m, GMT DDP Years 2&3 (up to $3.2m) and Additional 8m Access (up to $2m) provides substantially flexibility to adapt the total NCRI S spend to ens ure greatest value, inclusiv e of the information provided by the PILOT Stage 1 process ­ while also affording signific ant management of other financial risks. Sustainable funding bey ond 2011 and the strategies that will be implemented ahead of that time to secure adequat e and appropriate funding consistent wit h the objectiv es of the infrastructure invest ment. o We anticipat e that a sound case will emerge from this NCRI S round for a continuing function for a facility analogous to NCRIS. At the same time, it will be important that the strategy be robust enough to deal with loss of this sourc e of funds. o Then international lev erage built into the infrastructure projects, coupled with the abov e risk-bas ed planning and management tools , offers a solid starting point, but sound risk management will incorporate signific ant pre-emptive strategy direct ed at maint aining Australian funding where appropriate. o o

·

·

·

Beyond this, there are, for reas ons flagged abov e, stark differences between different components of the invest ment package in their vulnerability to some of thes e risks; in some cases there are substantial upside opportunities as well as risks. This creat es scope for managing the risks of the portfolio by ex ploiting this diversity of risk exposure. The creation of ARA and the central management of the block of funds for the `package' create real scope for doing this and foc using on max imising the v alue obt ained from t he package des pite the unc ertainties and risks. Management of Aspen instrumentation program risks and opportunities The Gemini "As pen" instrumentation program s eeks, over the next five years, to equip the Gemini telescopes with the next generation of state-of-the-art instruments. This bold and ambitious program is both high risk and ex pensive (wit h a total cost of US$75M) but, if successful, will make the Gemini Obs erv atory a world-leader in obs ervational optic al/infrared astronomy. A key component to this program and one that is critical to catering for Australia's scientific and instrument building ambitions, is the Wide Field Multi-Object Spectrograph (WFMOS) instrument, which will prov ide the only capability for conducting high multiplexed s pectrosc opy ov er a wide field on an 8m-class telesc ope.


65 At the present time, the funding of the Aspen program by the Gemini part ners remains uncert ain, with a number of key decision points being reached in the next 12-18 months that will determine the fate of the program and its final scope. The most critical factor in this regard is the ability of the major partners in Gemini ­ the US, UK and Canada ­ to secure their funding commit ments to the program. So far, they hav e only been able to c ommit 40% of their full funding share ov er the first two years of the program, with no certainty that this shortfall will be made up and their full commit ments for the final three years of the program will be found. As suc h, the options that will be faced ov er the next 15 mont hs and the decisions that the Gemini Board will likely have to make in each c ase are as follows: Decisi on points Nov 2006 Board meeti ng Scenari os (a)No immediate new funding forthcoming from Gemini partners (b)Significant new funding found by major partners for 1st two years (and bey ond) (c)Subsequent to (a), still no new funding commit ments from major Gemini partners Likely outcome Lifetime of Aspen program extended beyond 5 years; proceeding with WFMOS further postponed. Full As pen program res umes including design studies for WFMOS instrument Major de-scope of Aspen program with total funding env elope and partner contributions renegotiated; the most expensive instrument, WFMOS, almost certain to be cancelled; Australia would need to assess worth of any future involv ement in program. Decision made not to proc eed with WFMOS, but to continue with rest of Aspen program at a level commensurate with committed funding. Australia would need to assess future involv ement As for (c).

May 2007 Boar d meeting

(d)Subsequent to (b), WFMOS design studies completed and show it to be technically unf easible and/ or too expensiv e Nov 2007 Board meeti ng (e)Subsequent to (b), major partners unable to find full funding for remainder of program (f)Subsequent to (b), all partners able to c ommit funding for full program, and WFMOS design studies show it to feasible and affordable

Proc eed with full Aspen program.

The key implications of this decision-making process for the invest ment of NCRIS funding and the operation of ARA in managing these uncertainties in res pect of the "Gemini 6. 19% component can be summariz ed as follows: While the future and scope of the Aspen program are currently unc ertain, there will be full clarity by the end of 2007 ­ meshing well with PI LOT Stage 1 and key decisions in res pect of the strategic options. One of three scenarios is likely to emerge, each with the following approximate likelihoods and c ostings: o Full program proc eeds (20%) ­ A$3.7M o Program proceeds at a descoped level (40%) ­ A$1-2M o Program is canc elled (40%) ­ no cost. Given the delays suffered already in the program, it will almost cert ainly extend bey ond 5 years, should it proc eed.


66 These indic ations point to a high lik elihood that funding av ailable for managing the strategic options will be of the order of $5m, and possibly as high as $6.2m ­ with scope for some additional discretion within the NCRI S time period as a result of the likelihood of slippage in the timing of the Aspen program. Tec hnical risks As was not ed earlier, thes e vary substantially across elements of the package. The AAO and Gemini elements in the pack age are well-defined, relat e largely to continued operation of facilities for which there is established ex perienc e ­ and technical risks are likely to be modest. This does not mean they will be negligible ­ new instrumentation is planned for both facilities. Howev er, new instrument development will be handled through a cautious staged dev elopment with clear scope for abandoning the strategy at each step; and the option to def er development and implementation will be retained as a means of managing cost risks. These risks are wellsuited to options-based management that has been incorporated int o the strategy. For the Gemini participation, Australian risks are limit ed by the extent of our share in the Consortium and by the presence of an active market in shares ­ though clearly the propos ed invest ment strategy also recognis es that this low s hareholding is also limiting the benefits to Australian participation. For PILOT and GMT t echnical risks are being tightly managed through a staged options approach ­ wit h initial funding only sought for participation in the detailed design phases. This repres ents sound risk management, while ret aining access to the upside opportunities of success in demonstrating feasibility and cost justification. PI LOT Des ign and GMT DPP Year 1 both inv olve modest initial invest ments in these inf ormation infrastructure options in relation to the next generation of optic al facilities. PILOT Stage 2 will only proc eed after St age 1, subject to conclusions to emerge from that Stage and s ubject to a sound business case that then determines the most cost effective application of then uncommitted ARA funds, across the set of optional strategies. All these decisions can be taken against the background of what is then k nown of the total risks of the strategy, and the affordability of the construction propos al. Similar principles will apply to GMT, wit h progression to GMT DPP Years 2&3 being subject to Year 1 outcomes and the ass ociated business cas e. Phas e 2 is still seen as a modest inv est ment in creating the information options that can maintain Australia's ability to choose to be part of this next generation project through to the critical decision point at the start of the construction phase. Conceptually, MIRA has similar elements. It is part of a much larger venture, and will hav e a key role to play in managing risks associated wit h the SKA prospect. However, MI RA will also be a leading edge fac ility in its own right ­ even if the SKA project were not to proceed or were to be located els ewhere. MI RA will provide an order of magnitude improv ement in Australia radio astronomy capability and will incorporate a range of state-of-the-art features ­ inc luding the planned implementation of the Australian xNTD technology as an SKA demonstrator and again of value in its own right. A lot of work has gone into planning for both the SKA and MI RA ­ and the SKA business case has mapped pout the options-based management of xNTD and MI RA technical risks. Bey ond the specialist technologies to be demonstrat e, the scale of MIRA represents normal inc remental extension of existing radio cluster capabilities, so that other technical risks are well within normal ranges. The costs and risks of MIRA are to be shared internationally.


67 Exchange rat e risks Cost 0.75. US. to be estimates disc ussed above have been developed based on an AUD/ USD exchange rate of This is broadly cons istent with current levels and with interest rate trends in Australia and the However, over the life of the NCRI S program, there remains significant uncertainty and a risk managed

Of the high priority items, Australian-bas ed activities account for over 75% of the formal costs, and this brings with it substantial natural hedging. MIRA will inv olve signific ant imported content, though this is lik ely to come from div erse sourc es, providing some hedge against unilateral strengt hening of the USD. Of the strategic options, PILOT Construction should offer substantially great er nat ural hedging relativ e to GMT and additional Gemini access. The flexibility of ARA in relation to thes e strategic options offers some flexibility here ­ but this will be limited by the performance of PILOT Stage 1. A level of residual exchange rate risk will remain. There will be ups ide as well as downside elements to this, but sound management of the risk will be required. Financial hedging strat egies (e.g. an exchange rat e collar) have been ruled out by DEST. Other cost uncertainty The Australian and the international astronomy communities are highly experienced in managing the deploy ment of large engineering infrastruct ure projects. All planning has been predic ated on the applic ation of mainstream planning and engineering principles and has drawn on the experience of analogous projects in Australia and/ or els ewhere. Participation by int ernational consortia applies additional checks on project gov ernanc e and pressures to cont ain costs ­ at least within the recognised politics of the management of these consortia. The major `new project' element in the package is MI RA (with the possibility of the PILOT Construction project after detailed design and feas ibility assess ment ­ but PILOT will be a relativ ely s mall facility, limiting the scope for c ost blow-out in absolute terms ). The budgets for thes e inv estments inc orporate contingencies to allow for scope creep. They are not based around highly optimistic assumptions. individually, they do not pres ent worst-case cost outcomes ­ to base the portfolio in c ase-by-cas e worst case estimates would create its own risks underutilisation of the already constrained financ ial resources. both price ris es and for On the other hand, planning for the whole ­ of serious

Instead, the budgets as dev eloped repres ent estimates of the ex pected cost of the individual items and s um to a realistic estimate of the expect ed cost of the portfolio, if all items were to be pursued. As such, thes e estimat es include possible ov ers and unders, and the cost risk for the portfolio as a whole will be significantly less than the cost risk for the individual elements. A possible exception to this divers ification benefit is the risk of systemic cost blow-out ­ driven by rising international mat erials and energy costs. This is a risk inherent in all infrastructure projects and one that can only be handled through hedge instruments (us e of derivative products to lock in prices ) and/or integration int o the strategy of subst antial flexibility in the form of def erral and, if necess ary, abandonment options, and options to redirect resourc es in directions less affected by unex pected cost pressures. These approaches hav e been integrated int o the s trategy as follows: · The risks of major systemic cost blow-out are greatest for the new projects ­ with establis hed facilities still offering some natural hedge within the portfolio, and limiting the need for, and lev el of compromise in, exercis ing the other options.


68 · Overall risks of serious damage to the planned strategy within the 5-year period has been assessed as very low.

`Mark et' risks ##Should be able to argue that thes e are very s mall ­ all the more so given the level of innov ation in some of the projects and the proven track record and value of the survey operations. Referring here to demand for access to these facilities and associated revenue streams. Aust This wit h be a ralia's ability to acquire additional 8m time will be tied to the mark et in 8m access at the time. access cannot be guarant eed now ­ other possible than through ac quisition of a put option a current shareholder ­ but the nature of this market is such as to suggest that this should not major risk. The risk is further mitigated by the flexibility built into the strat egy.

Joint vent ure risks ##Key inputs once implementation arrangements are agreed. Includes consideration of staging of members hip ­ and ability to operat e in the meantime ­ res ponsibilities for c osts etc if choose to exit and proc esses for managing how these ev olv e over time. Further details of the flexi bility i nherent in components ##Include here a c omponent by component discussion of the flex ibility inherent in the propos al: · As a source of portfolio flexibility to accommodate cost changes and cas es emerging for Stage/Phase 2 invest ments. · Incorporating a discussion of scope for and costs of spreading the invest ment beyond the 5 years. · Incorporating sc ale back opportunities to deliver most benefits at lower cost. · Incorporating sc ope for rapid up-sc aling should the case and/or funds emerge. Apart from the obvious strategic value, this disc us sion could be a powerful way that the budget constraint has high cost ­ helping NCRI S build the case for flow possibly for reaching early agreement on their being a replacement instrument. would immediately increase the v alue of the options, by lowering one uncertaint of pus hing the cas e -on funding and Knowledge of this y.


69 ATTACHME NT H LETTERS OF COMMI TMENT

Letters of commit ment should be provided by all parties that have committed any form of assistanc e or res ources to the implementation or operation of this Invest ment Plan. The letters should commence in the following fashion:

Dr Mik e Sargent AM Chair NCRI S Committee C/- Depart ment of Educ ation, Science and Training GPO Box 9880 CANBERRA ACT 2601 Dear Dr Sargent I am writing to confirm the commit ment of [name of organisation] to participating in the operation and management of the research infrastruct ure, and providing the financial and ot her s upport, as specified in the National Collaborativ e Researc h Infrastructure Strategy Invest ment Plan for [name of research capability area]. ......... Yours sincerely,


70 ATTACHME NT I FURTHER I NFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS

The nature and value of research infrastruct ure that is required for this capability area, but not included in this Inv estment Plan should be detailed. The following provides a table of optical and radio infrastructure in Australia not included in the NCRI S proposal. It ranges from National Facilities (ATNF) to Univ ersity PhD training telesc opes. All are deemed required for maint aining the capability over the NCRI S period. ##To be completed as outlined in Progress Report , include unres esourced strategic options and GMT landmark. ATTACHME NT J CONFI DENTI AL I NFORMATION

No confidential information should be inc luded in this Invest ment Plan. If it is considered necessary to provide c ertain confidential inf ormation to the NCRIS Committee in association with this Invest ment Plan, then a non-confidential summary ex plaining the nat ure and ownership of the information should be provided in this Attachment. DEST will cont act relev ant parties to obtain acc ess to the confidential information in an appropriat e manner.
i

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE,

National Telecommunications and Information Administration [Joseph P. Camacho], Radio Astronomy Spectrum Planning Options, NTIA Special Publication 98-35 (1998), Appendix B, applications of astronomical techniques, http://www.ntia.doc.gov/osmhome/reports/pub9835/Raspapnd.htm .