Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.mao.kiev.ua/doctmp/Visnik_NAMU_3_2016_el_12.pdf Дата изменения: Thu Mar 24 21:01:49 2016 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 01:16:40 2016 Кодировка: Поисковые слова: planetary nebula

doi: 10.15407/visn2016.03.070


, , . , 50--100 . .

-- - ,

15 . 2000 . (David John Sainsbury) ', . ', , . (Harry Atkinson), (Crispin Tickell) (David Williams) 2000 . .


2000 . 800 , . . 1 , ( Apollo Aten) [1]. . ( Amor) . , . , , .

70

ISSN 1027-3239. Visn. Nac. Acad. Nauk Ukr. 2016. (3)




' , , , . ' . 2000 . 1000 1 , , 100 000 -- 100 . . . , . , , , , . , , ' . '. , . , , . , , , , . ' . , . . . , ' . 1973 . « »
ISSN 1027-3239. . , 2016, 3

. 1. 800 , 2000 . , , () . , , , () [1]

(The Spaceguard). , ', , , , , , . EUNEASO Project , ', , , , , . '. GAIA, 250 000 20- . , , ' 50 % .

71





' , , , , . '. . ,

. 2. . «-11»

. 3. (, )

, . . ' , - , . . . . , , . -- « ». , . , 80 , 1969 . 11- (. 2), (Clearwater Lakes) 22 32 (. 3) ­ , . 260 . , 30- -- 1,7 . , , « », . 526 . 300 . . 1883 . 50 . 2 % . . 1815 .
ISSN 1027-3239. Visn. Nac. Acad. Nauk Ukr. 2016. (3)

72




100 3 . 20 . . . , , . , . , , . . . , . , , . , , , . '. , , .


NASA Near Earth Objects Program, 540 . , . , 50--100 . . Near Earth Objects Program ', ,
ISSN 1027-3239. . , 2016, 3

100 [2]. . -, , . , , , 1000 . -, . , , . ( ) , . , . . , , , , . , . , 100 . ', . , , . [3]. . . , 5 · 10­6 . , 1/5 · 10­6 = 2 · 105, 200 . , . --

73




. 4. (29075) 1950 DA, Arecibo Observatory 4 2001 .

2 , 400 . . . 540 17 -- 300 ; 13 -- 400 ; 9 -- 500 ; 2 -- 1 . 500 1·10­10 1·10­6. 400 . 2000 . 400 (13 ') 2018 2199 . , , 3,3 · 10­3. 181 . , 181/3,3 · 10­3 = = 55 . . 500 (9 ') 1,15 · 10­6 98 . 85 .

, , . , . , , , . - , . (29075) 1950 DA, , Apollo (. 4). 2,21 . 2880 . 5· 10­5. 17 . , , . 1,3 , -- 2 , -- 18 /, -- 75 . . , . , , , , ' , , , . . .


, , . , , .
ISSN 1027-3239. Visn. Nac. Acad. Nauk Ukr. 2016. (3)


Near Earth Objects Program [2],

74




Britannica 70­100 . . , . , , , . ,

50--100 . . , , , , . , , : , , . ...

REFERENCES [ ] 1. Report of the Task Force on Potentially Hazardous Near Earth Objects. September 2000. http://spaceguardcentre. com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/full_report.pdf. 2. Near Earth Objects Program. http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk. 3. Handbook on probability calculations. Moscow: Voenizdat, 1970. [ . .: , 1970]. 19.11.2015. .. () , , . , 50--100 . . B.E. Zhilyaev Main Astronomical Observatory of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (Kyiv) ASTEROIDS AS A FACTOR OF THREAT TO CIVILIZATION The article briefly discusses some issues relating to the asteroid hazard and possible consequences of asteroid and comet collisions with Earth, analyzes the basic principles for calculating the probability of asteroid collisions with Earth. It is shown that the asteroid hazard limits the period of existence of civilizations in the range 50--100 kyr.

ISSN 1027-3239. . , 2016, 3

75