Ïðîãíîç Ñîëíå÷íîé Àêòèâíîñòè
2016/04/04
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ÑÐÅÄÍÅÌÅÑß×ÍÎÅ ÎÒÍÎÑÈÒÅËÜÍÎÅ ×ÈÑËÎ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÏßÒÅÍ ÇÀ ÌÀÐÒ 2016 ã.
Wìàðò = 32.9, 54.9 (í.)
×ÒÎ ÄÀ¨Ò ÄËß 80 ÌÅÑßÖÀ (2015, ñåíòÿáðü) ÐÀÇÂÈÒÈß ÒÅÊÓÙÅÃÎ 24 ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÎÃÎ
ÖÈÊËÀ ÑÃËÀÆÅÍÍÎÅ ÑÐÅÄÍÅÌÅÑß×ÍÎÅ ×ÈÑËÎ ÏßÒÅÍ
W*ñåíòÿáðü= 39.6 66.0 - â íîâîé ñèñòåìå;
W*àâãóñò = 39.8; 66.3 - â íîâîé ñèñòåìå;
- Ñ 1 èþëÿ 2015 ã. Öåíòð â Áðþññåëå ïåðåø¸ë íà íîâóþ ñèñòåìó ïîäñ÷¸òà îò-
íîñèòåëüíûõ ÷èñåë ñîëíå÷íûõ ïÿòåí è, ïðàêòè÷åñêè, âñå çíà÷åíèÿ ñìåíèëèñü
âî âñ¸ì ïðîíóìåðîâàííîì ðÿäå ÷èñåë Âîëüôà (ñì. ïî ññûëêå).
Íî Ñëóæáà Ñîëíöà SWPC NOAA â ñâîèõ åæåíåäåëüíûõ òàáëèöàõ "Recent Solar
Indices" ïðîäîëæàåò ïðèäåðæèâàòüñÿ ñòàðîé ñèñòåìû, ïîýòîìó ÿ äàþ çà ïðåäû-
äóùèé ìåñÿö W* èñïðàâëåííîå.
ÍÀ×ÀËÎ 24 ÖÈÊËÀ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÎÉ ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÈ - ßÍÂÀÐÜ 2009 ã., W*min = 1.8 (2.2í)
ÂÐÅÌß ÌÀÊÑÈÌÓÌÀ ÒÅÊÓÙÅÃÎ 24 ÖÈÊËÀ ÑÀ - ÀÏÐÅËÜ 2014 ã., W*max = 81.9 (116.4í)
ÊÎÍÅÖ 24 ÖÈÊËÀ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÎÉ ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÈ (ÒÎ×ÊÀ ÌÈÍÈÌÓÌÀ) - IV - IV 2020 ã.
ÌÅÆÄÓÍÀÐÎÄÍÎÅ ÅÆÅÄÍÅÂÍÎÅ ÎÒÍÎÑÈÒÅËÜÍÎÅ ×ÈÑËÎ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÏßÒÅÍ ÇÀ ÔÅÂÐÀËÜ
2016 ã. ÑÎÃËÀÑÍÎ ÄÀÍÍÛÌ 79 ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÎÁÑÅÐÂÀÒÎÐÈÉ:
1.. 69 6 74 11 56 16 87 21 34 26 32 31 16m
2.. 79 7 80 12 71 17 73 22 21 27 33
3.. 78 8 63 13 58 18 47 23 22 28 31
4..111M 9 90 14 72 19 38 24 35 29 21
5.. 83 10 79 15 61 20 36 25 34 30 17
ÑÐÅÄÍÅÌÅÑß×ÍÛÉ ÍÀÁËÞÄÀÅÌÛÉ ÏÎÒÎÊ ÐÀÄÈÎÈÇËÓ×ÅÍÈß ÍÀ 10 ñì (2800 MHz)
ÇÀ ÌÀÐÒ 2016 ã.
Fìàðò = 91.5 F*ñåí.=110.8
ÑÐÅÄÍÅÌÅÑß×ÍÛÉ ÏÐÅÄÂÀÐÈÒÅËÜÍÛÉ Àð-ÈÍÄÅÊÑ ÇÀ ÌÀÐÒ 2016 ã. ÏÎ ÄÀÍÍÛÌ
ÃÅÎÌÀÃÍÈÒÍÎÃÎ ÖÅÍÒÐÀ Â ÏÎÒÑÄÀÌÅ
Àð ìàðò = 10 Àð*ñåí.=12.8
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ÎÁÇÎÐ ÑÎÑÒÎßÍÈß ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÎÉ ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÈ, ÃÅÎÝÔÔÅÊÒÈÂÍÛÕ ßÂËÅÍÈÉ,
È ÈÕ ÂÎÇÄÅÉÑÒÂÈÉ ÍÀ ÎÊÎËÎÇÅÌÍÎÅ ÊÎÑÌÈ×ÅÑÊÎÅ ÏÐÎÑÒÐÀÍÑÒÂÎ
ÍÀ ÏÅÐÈÎÄ 28.03 - 04.04.2016 ã.
È ÏÐÎÃÍÎÇ ÍÀ 05 - 12.04.2016 ã.
ÊÝÐÐÈÍÃÒÎÍÎÂÑÊÈÉ ÎÁÎÐÎÒ 2175(16,50.03.2016)
ÏßÒÍÎÎÁÐÀÇÎÂÀÒÅËÜÍÀß ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÜ ÑÎËÍÖÀ ÁÛËÀ ÍÀ ÍÈÇÊÎÌ ÓÐÎÂÍÅ ÂÑÅ
ÄÍÈ, ÊÐÎÌÅ 3.04 - ÑÐÅÄÍÈÉ. ÐÀÑרÒÍÎÅ, ÑÐÅÄÍÅÅ ÇÍÀ×ÅÍÈÅ ÎÒÍÎÑÈÒÅËÜ-
ÍÎÃÎ ×ÈÑËÀ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÏßÒÅÍ Â ÌÅÆÄÓÍÀÐÎÄÍÎÉ ÑÈÑÒÅÌÅ (ñòàðîé) ÏÅÐÈÎ-
ÄÀ ÑÎÑÒÀÂÈËÎ W=10+13/-7 (Wí=16+20/-4). ÍÀ ÂÈÄÈÌÎÌ ÄÈÑÊÅ ÑÎËÍÖÀ ÏÎ-
ÑÒÎßÍÍÎ ÍÀÁËÞÄÀËÎÑÜ 1-3 ÍÅÁÎËÜØÈÕ, ÑÏÎÊÎÉÍÛÕ ÃÐÓÏÏ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÏßÒÅÍ.
ÍÀ ÑËÅÄÓÞÙÅÉ ÍÅÄÅËÅ ÎÆÈÄÀÅÒÑß ÑÐÅÄÍÈÉ È ÍÈÇÊÈÉ ÓÐÎÂÍÈ ÏßÒÍÎÎÁÐÀ-
ÇÎÂÀÒÅËÜÍÎÉ ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÈ. ÍÀÈÁÎËÅÅ ÂÅÐÎßÒÍÎÅ, ÐÀÑרÒÍÎÅ, ÑÐÅÄÍÅÅ ÇÀ
ÏÅÐÈÎÄ ÇÍÀ×ÅÍÈÅ ÎÒÍÎÑÈÒÅËÜÍÎÃÎ ×ÈÑËÀ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÏßÒÅÍ Â ÌÅÆÄÓÍÀÐÎÄ-
ÍÎÉ ÑÈÑÒÅÌÅ W = 20+20/-10.
ÂÑÏÛØÅ×ÍÀß ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÜ ÁÛËÀ ÍÀ Î×ÅÍÜ ÍÈÇÊÎÌ ÓÐÎÂÍÅ. 4 ÂÛÁÐÎÑÀ ÑÎË-
ÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÂÎËÎÊÎÍ ÇÀÐÅÃÈÑÒÐÈÐÎÂÀÍÎ ÇÀ ÏÅÐÈÎÄ. ÏÎ ÄÀÍÍÛÌ ÊÎÐÎÍÎÃÐÀÔÎÂ
ÑÎÕÎ È ÑÒÅÐÅÎ ÍÀÁËÞÄÀËÎÑÜ ÁÎËÅÅ 12 ÊÎÐÎÍÀËÜÍÛÕ ÂÛÁÐÎÑÎÂ ÂÅÙÅÑÒÂÀ.
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ÂÑÏÛØÊÈ
to tm te êîî-òû áàëë Å(1-8A) ÀÎ RII/IV CME/to
ðåíò/îï J/m-2
ÂÛÁÐÎÑÛ ÂÎËÎÊÎÍ
DSF to te êîîðäèíàòû l â ãðàä. Fl AÎ CME/to
28.03 0509 0601 S19W31L233 5
30.03 2034 2315 N38E20L155 ?
31.03 0020 0110 S25W65L227 ?
01.04 >1510 >0908 N19W47L196 13
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ÍÀ ÑËÅÄÓÞÙÅÉ ÍÅÄÅËÅ ÂÑÏÛØÅ×ÍÀß ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÜ ÎÆÈÄÀÅÒÑß ÍÀ Î×ÅÍÜ ÍÈÇÊÎÌ È
ÍÈÇÊÎÌ ÓÐÎÂÍßÕ.
ÍÀ ÂÈÄÈÌÎÌ ÄÈÑÊÅ ÑÎËÍÖÀ ÍÀÁËÞÄÀËÈÑÜ ÊÎÐÎÍÀËÜÍÛÅ ÄÛÐÛ Ñ ÊÎÎÐÄÈÍÀÒÀÌÈ:
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çíàê N êîíåö Å êîíåö S êîíåö W êîíåö Sch ÎÊÏ R G KO
CH - N02L202 S02L197 S08L203 S00L205 31.03 2 SDO, SOHO..
CH + N31L148 N29L149 N10L178 N12L188 3.03 1 SDO, SOHO..
CH - N42L138 N42L138 N18L143 N20L158 3400 3.03 1 SDO, SOHO..
CH - N15L161 N14L159 N10L170 N15L178 2800 4.03 1 SDO, SOHO..
Ïîñëåäíèå äâå ÊÄ çàðîäèëèñü 27.03 è äî 1.04 áûëè îäíîé.
Sch - ïëîùàäü ÊÄ â Ìì*2 (â êâàäðàòíûõ ìåãàìåòðàõ) âáëèçè öåíòðàëüíîãî
ìåðèäèàíà ïî http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/;
n/d - íåò äàííûõ;
ÎÊÏ - äàòà âîçìîæíîãî ãåîìàãíèòíîãî âîçìóùåíèÿ â îêîëîçåìíîì êîñìè-
÷åñêîì ïðîñòðàíñòâå; R - ñêîëüêî îáîðîòîâ íàáëþäàåòñÿ.
G(0-5)-ãåîìàãíèòíàÿ âîçìóù¸ííîñòü íà ïðîøëîì îáîðîòå (ñðåäíèå øèðîòû);
A - âîçìóù¸ííàÿ ãåîìàãíèòíàÿ îáñòàíîâêà.
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Cî 2.04/1330 UT ÇÅÌËß ÍÀÕÎÄÈÒÑß Â "-" ÑÅÊÒÎÐÅ ÌÅÆÏËÀÍÅÒÍÎÃÎ ÌÀÃÍÈÒÍÎ-
ÃÎ ÏÎËß. ÑËÅÄÓÞÙÓÞ ÑÅÊÒÎÐÍÓÞ ÃÐÀÍÈÖÓ -/+ ÇÅÌËß ÄÎËÆÍÀ ÏÐÎÉÒÈ 8.04.
ÌÀÐÒ 28 29 30 31 01 02 03 ÌÀÐÒ
Wus 023 013 012 011 011 011 038
F10.7 088 088 084 082 082 082 082
Õbcg A7.4 Â7.5 B5.6 A3.7 A3.7 A3.5 A4.3 GOES
Sp 250 200 190 200 180 190 170 ìäï
N 2
IMF + + + + + +/- - ÀÑÅ
å>2 3.1Å+6 3.5Å+6 6.3Å+6 1.8Å+7 2.6E+7 1.1E+7 8.2Å+6 GOES
Ie>2 118 251 183 448 585 625 397 pfu GOES
Ap 10 10 12 5 1 22 15 íT BOULDER
Dst -7 -56 -50 íÒ KÈOTO
Amsc íåò äàííûõ íT ÈÇÌÈÐÀÍ
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å>2 -ïèêîâûé ïîòîê ýëåêòðîíîâ ñ Å>2 MeV çà ñóòêè â e/(cm2-ster-day);
Ie>2-ìàêñèìàëüíàÿ èíòåíñèâíîñòü ïîòîêà ýëåêòðîíîâ íà ãåîñòàöèîíàðíûõ
îðáèòàõ çà ñóòêè ïî äàííûì GOES 15 â (electrons/cm2-s-sr) - ñîáûòèÿ
ñ ïîòîêîì >/=1000 pfu).
ÂÛÑÎÊÈÉ ÓÐÎÂÅÍÜ ÏÎÒÎÊÀ ÂÛÑÎÊÎÝÍÅÐÃÈ×ÍÛÕ ÝËÅÊÒÐÎÍÎÂ Ñ Å>2 Ìý ÍÀ ÃÅÎ-
ÑÒÀÖÈÎÍÀÐÍÛÕ ÎÐÁÈÒÀÕ ÍÅ ÍÀÁËÞÄÀËÑß.
ÍÀ ÑËÅÄÓÞÙÅÉ ÍÅÄÅËÅ ÂÛÑÎÊÈÉ ÓÐÎÂÅÍÜ ÏÎÒÎÊÀ ÂÛÑÎÊÎÝÍÅÐÃÈ×ÍÛÕ ÝËÅÊÒÐÎ-
ÍÎÂ Ñ Å>2 ÌýÂ ÍÅ ÎÆÈÄÀÅÒÑß.
ÌÀËÀß ÌÀÃÍÈÒÍÀß ÁÓÐß (G2, Ams=39, äëèò.=12 ÷.) ÁÛËÀ ÎÒÌÅ×ÅÍÀ 2-3.04
ÊÀÊ ÑËÅÄÑÒÂÈÅ ÏÐÎÕÎÆÄÅÍÈß ÇÅÌ謃 ÂÛÑÎÊÎÑÊÎÐÎÑÒÍÎÃÎ ÏÎÒÎÊÀ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÎÃÎ
ÂÅÒÐÀ ÎÒ ÊÎÐÎÍÀËÜÍÎÉ ÄÛÐÛ ÑÅÂÅÐÍÎÃÎ ÏÎËÓØÀÐÈß ÎÒÐÈÖÀÒÅËÜÍÎÉ ÏÎËßÐÍÎ-
ÑÒÈ.  ÎÑÒÀËÜÍÛÅ ÄÍÈ ÃÅÎÌÀÃÍÈÒÍÀß ÎÁÑÒÀÍÎÂÊÀ ÁÛËÀ ÑËÀÁÎÂÎÇÌÓÙ¨ÍÍÎÉ È
ÑÏÎÊÎÉÍÎÉ.
ÍÀ ÑËÅÄÓÞÙÅÉ ÍÅÄÅËÅ ÃÅÎÌÀÃÍÈÒÍÀß ÎÁÑÒÀÍÎÂÊÀ ÎÆÈÄÀÅÒÑß ÑËÀÁÎÂÎÇÌÓ-
Ù¨ÍÍÎÉ È ÑÏÎÊÎÉÍÎÉ.
ÎÁÇÎÐ È ÏÐÎÃÍÎÇ ÑÎÑÒÀÂËÅÍ ÏÎ ÌÀÒÅÐÈÀËÀÌ ÑËÓÆÁÛ ÑÎËÍÖÀ
ÁÎÓËÄÅÐ, ÑØÀ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
ÖÅÍÒÐÀ ÑÁÎÐÀ È ÎÁÐÀÁÎÒÊÈ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÈÍÄÅÊÑÎÂ,
ÁÐÞÑÑÅËÜ, ÁÅËÜÃÈß http://sidc.oma.be/,
ÈÇÌÈÐÀÍ (ÒÐÎÈÖÊ, ÐÎÑÑÈß) http://www.izmiran.ru
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