Solar Activity Forecast
2016/04/04
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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MARCH 2016 HAS MADE
Wmarch = 32.9, 54.9 (new)
THAT GIVES FOR 80 MONTHS (2015, SEPTEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24
CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*sep. = 39.6; 66.0 - (in new system);
W*aug. = 39.8; 66.3 - (in new system);
- On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal-
culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the
minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA.
Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system,
if it remains.
THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2)
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM-IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4)
THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020;
THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2016,
MARCH ACCORDING DATA OF 79 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:
1.. 45 6.. 78 11.. 85 16.. 43 21.. 47 26.. 48
2.. 53 7.. 87 12.. 66 17.. 40 22.. 34 27.. 28
3.. 82 8.. 94 13.. 38 18.. 37 23.. 37 28.. 37
4..108М 9.. 83 14.. 50 19.. 46 24.. 34 29.. 46
5..108М 10.. 80 15.. 51 20.. 50 25.. 25m
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
2016, MARCH
F10.7march = 91.6 F10.7 sep.= 110.8
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, MARCH
Ap march = 11.0 Ap sep.= 12.8
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 28.03 - 03.04.2016,
Forecast on 04 - 11.04.2016,
Carrington Rotations 2175 (16,50.03.2016)
SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT A LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS,
EXCEPT 3.04 - AVERAGE. THE ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE
VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
(old)FOR THE PERIOD IS W=10+13/-7 (Wn=16+20/-4). 2 - 1 SMALL AND
QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SO-
LAR DISK.
NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUN-
SPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY. THE ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVE-
RAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+20/-10.
FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS. THERE WERE FO-
UR SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCOR-
DING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS, >12 CMEs HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
DSF to te Localization l в град. Fl AО CME/to
28.03 0509 0601 S19W31L233 5
30.03 2034 2315 N38E20L155 ?
31.03 0020 0110 S25W65L227 ?
01.04 >1510 >0908 N19W47L196 13
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL.
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Observatories
CH - N02L202 S02L197 S08L203 S00L205 31.03 2 SDO, SOHO..
CH + N31L148 N29L149 N10L178 N12L188 3.03 1 SDO, SOHO..
CH - N42L138 N42L138 N18L143 N20L158 3400 3.03 1 SDO, SOHO..
CH - N15L161 N14L159 N10L170 N15L178 2800 4.03 1 SDO, SOHO..
The last two CH have arisen 27.03 and till 1.04 were one.
Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 02.04/1330 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS
08.03.
МАРТ 28 29 30 31 01 02 03 МАРТ
Wus 023 013 012 011 011 011 038
F10.7 088 088 084 082 082 082 082
Хbcg A7.4 В7.5 B5.6 A3.7 A3.7 A3.5 A4.3 GOES
Sp 250 200 190 200 180 190 170 msh
N 2
IMF + + + + + +/- - АСЕ
е>2 3.1Е+6 3.5Е+6 6.3Е+6 1.8Е+7 2.6E+7 1.1E+7 8.2Е+6 GOES
Ie>2 118 251 183 448 585 625 397 pfu GOES
Ap 10 10 12 5 1 22 15 nT BOULDER
Dst -7 -56 -50 nТ KIOTO
Amsc no data nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS NOT
OBSERVED 22.03.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.
MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=39, dur.=12 h) HAS BEEN NOTED 2 -3.04
AS A RESULT OF PASSING BY THE EARTH OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED
STREAM FROM NEGATIVE POLARITY CORONAL HOLE OF THE NORTHERN HEMI-
SPHERE. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND
QUIET.
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE.
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru
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