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Дата индексирования: Sat Apr 9 23:22:05 2016
Кодировка: koi8-r

Поисковые слова: annular solar eclipse
SAF
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Solar Activity Forecast

2016/04/04

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MARCH 2016 HAS MADE 
                           Wmarch = 32.9,  54.9 (new) 
THAT GIVES FOR 80 MONTHS (2015, SEPTEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 
CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER 
              W*sep. = 39.6;    66.0 - (in new system);
              W*aug. = 39.8;    66.3 - (in new system);
- On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal-
culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the 
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers 
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the 
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the 
minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. 
Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system, 
if it remains. 

THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE   -     I 2009  with W*=1.8; (2.2)  
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM-IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4)
THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM)   - IV - VI 2020;

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2016, 
MARCH ACCORDING DATA OF 79 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:

      1.. 45    6.. 78   11.. 85   16.. 43   21.. 47   26.. 48
      2.. 53    7.. 87   12.. 66   17.. 40   22.. 34   27.. 28
      3.. 82    8.. 94   13.. 38   18.. 37   23.. 37   28.. 37
      4..108М   9.. 83   14.. 50   19.. 46   24.. 34   29.. 46
      5..108М  10.. 80   15.. 51   20.. 50   25.. 25m 
 
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 
2016, MARCH 
                 F10.7march = 91.6        F10.7 sep.= 110.8

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, MARCH
                 Ap march = 11.0          Ap sep.= 12.8
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      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 28.03 - 03.04.2016,
                Forecast on 04 - 11.04.2016,
         Carrington Rotations 2175 (16,50.03.2016)
  
 SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT A LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS, 
EXCEPT 3.04 - AVERAGE. THE ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE 
VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM 
(old)FOR THE PERIOD IS W=10+13/-7 (Wn=16+20/-4). 2 - 1 SMALL AND 
QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SO-
LAR DISK.
 
 NEXT WEEK IT  IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUN-
SPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY. THE ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVE-
RAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN  THE INTERNATIONAL 
SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+20/-10. 

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS. THERE WERE FO-
UR SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCOR-
DING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS, >12 CMEs HAVE 
BEEN OBSERVED.
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FLARES   to   tm   te    c/p local.Class    E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                   X-ray/оp  J/m-2
DSF     to      te  Localization   l в град.   Fl     AО      CME/to
28.03  0509    0601    S19W31L233      5 
30.03  2034    2315    N38E20L155      ?
31.03  0020    0110    S25W65L227      ?
01.04 >1510   >0908    N19W47L196     13  
----------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Observatories
CH -   N02L202 S02L197 S08L203 S00L205        31.03  2    SDO, SOHO..
CH +   N31L148 N29L149 N10L178 N12L188         3.03  1    SDO, SOHO..
CH -   N42L138 N42L138 N18L143 N20L158 3400    3.03  1    SDO, SOHO..
CH -   N15L161 N14L159 N10L170 N15L178 2800    4.03  1    SDO, SOHO..
The last two CH have arisen 27.03 and till 1.04 were one.
Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 02.04/1330 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH  HAS TO PASS 
08.03.

МАРТ     28     29     30     31     01     02     03      МАРТ
Wus     023    013    012    011    011    011    038  
F10.7   088    088    084    082    082    082    082 
Хbcg   A7.4   В7.5   B5.6   A3.7   A3.7   A3.5   A4.3      GOES
Sp      250    200    190    200    180    190    170  msh   
N                                                  2
IMF      +      +      +      +      +     +/-     -        АСЕ   
е>2  3.1Е+6 3.5Е+6 6.3Е+6 1.8Е+7 2.6E+7 1.1E+7 8.2Е+6      GOES
Ie>2    118    251    183    448    585    625    397  pfu GOES 
Ap       10     10     12     5      1      22     15  nT  BOULDER 
Dst                                 -7     -56    -50  nТ  KIOTO 
Amsc                  no data                          nT  IZMIRAN 
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS NOT
OBSERVED 22.03.
 
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY 
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.


MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=39, dur.=12 h) HAS BEEN NOTED 2 -3.04 
AS A RESULT OF PASSING  BY THE EARTH  OF THE SOLAR WIND  HIGH-SPEED 
STREAM  FROM NEGATIVE POLARITY CORONAL HOLE  OF THE NORTHERN  HEMI-
SPHERE. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND 
QUIET.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru