Äîêóìåíò âçÿò èç êýøà ïîèñêîâîé ìàøèíû. Àäðåñ îðèãèíàëüíîãî äîêóìåíòà : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/ru/2015/obzor20150803.ru.txt Äàòà èçìåíåíèÿ: Mon Aug 3 14:54:04 2015 Äàòà èíäåêñèðîâàíèÿ: Sun Apr 10 01:00:43 2016 Êîäèðîâêà: koi8-r Ïîèñêîâûå ñëîâà: ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï

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ÑÐÅÄÍÅÌÅÑß×ÍÎÅ ÎÒÍÎÑÈÒÅËÜÍÎÅ ×ÈÑËÎ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÏßÒÅÍ ÇÀ ÈÞëÜ 2015 ã.
Wèþëü= 66.4,
×ÒÎ ÄÀ¨Ò ÄËß 72 ÌÅÑßÖÀ (2015, ßÍÂÀÐÜ) ÐÀÇÂÈÒÈß ÒÅÊÓÙÅÃÎ 24 ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÎÃÎ
ÖÈÊËÀ ÑÃËÀÆÅÍÍÎÅ ÑÐÅÄÍÅÌÅÑß×ÍÎÅ ×ÈÑËÎ ÏßÒÅÍ
W*äåê. = 56.0c (â ñòàðîé ñèñòåìå - "c"); 93.3 â íîâîé;
W*ÿíâ. = "63.9"c (89.8 - http://www.sidc.be/silso/newdataset)

- Ñ 1 èþëÿ 2015 ã. Öåíòð â Áðþññåëå ïåðåø¸ë íà íîâóþ ñèñòåìó ïîäñ÷¸òà îò-
íîñèòåëüíûõ ÷èñåë ñîëíå÷íûõ ïÿòåí è, ïðàêòè÷åñêè, âñå çíà÷åíèÿ ñìåíèëèñü
âî âñ¸ì ïðîíóìåðîâàííîì ðÿäå ÷èñåë Âîëüôà (ñì. ïî ññûëêå). Ïîêà èä¸ò ïðè-
âûêàíèå, ÿ ïåðåñ÷èòàë (0.683) ê ñòàðîé ñèñòåìå, íî òîëüêî W* è ïðèâîæó
íèæå íîâûå çíà÷åíèÿ äëÿ ìèíèìóìà è ìàêñèìóìà 24 öèêëà ÑÀ.
Ïðàêòè÷åñêè âñå ðàáîòû ñ èñïîëüçîâàíèåì ñãëàæåííûõ W* íóæíî ïðèâîäèòü ê
íîâîé ñèñòåìå, åñëè îíà îñòàíåòñÿ.
Ïðåäâàðèòåëüíàÿ òàáëèöà äîñòîâåðíûõ è óñëîâíî-äîñòîâåðíûõ (8, 9)) öøêëîâ ÑÀ
îïóáëèêîâàíà â êîíöå âûïóñêà.

ÍÀ×ÀËÎ 24 ÖÈÊËÀ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÎÉ ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÈ - ßÍÂÀÐÜ 2009 ã., W*min = 1.8 (2.2)
ÂÐÅÌß ÌÀÊÑÈÌÓÌÀ ÒÅÊÓÙÅÃÎ 24 ÖÈÊËÀ ÑÀ - ÀÏÐÅËÜ 2014 ã., W*max= 81.9 (116.4)
ÊÎÍÅÖ 24 ÖÈÊËÀ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÎÉ ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÈ (ÒÎ×ÊÀ ÌÈÍÈÌÓÌÀ) - IV - IV 2020 ã.

ÌÅÆÄÓÍÀÐÎÄÍÎÅ ÅÆÅÄÍÅÂÍÎÅ ÎÒÍÎÑÈÒÅËÜÍÎÅ ×ÈÑËÎ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÏßÒÅÍ ÇÀ ÈÞëÜ
2015 ã. ÑÎÃËÀÑÍÎ ÄÀÍÍÛÌ 79 ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÎÁÑÅÐÂÀÒÎÐÈÉ:

1.. 55 6.. 96 11.. 88 16.. 50 21.. 36 26.. 39 31..114
2.. 75 7..111 12.. 71 17.. 49 22.. 36 27.. 51
3.. 87 8..120M 13.. 48 18.. 58 23.. 29m 28.. 61
4..100 9..108 14.. 42 19.. 43 24.. 30 29.. 66
5..106 10..101 15.. 43 20.. 36 25.. 34 30.. 74

ÑÐÅÄÍÅÌÅÑß×ÍÛÉ ÍÀÁËÞÄÀÅÌÛÉ ÏÎÒÎÊ ÐÀÄÈÎÈÇËÓ×ÅÍÈß ÍÀ 10 ñì (2800 MHz)
ÇÀ ÈÞÍÜ 2015 ã.
Fèþëü = 107.0

ÑÐÅÄÍÅÌÅÑß×ÍÛÉ ÏÐÅÄÂÀÐÈÒÅËÜÍÛÉ Àð-ÈÍÄÅÊÑ ÇÀ ÈÞÍÜ 2015 ã. ÏÎ ÄÀÍÍÛÌ
ÃÅÎÌÀÃÍÈÒÍÎÃÎ ÖÅÍÒÐÀ Â ÏÎÒÑÄÀÌÅ
Àð èþëü = 8.8
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ÎÁÇÎÐ ÑÎÑÒÎßÍÈß ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÎÉ ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÈ, ÃÅÎÝÔÔÅÊÒÈÂÍÛÕ ßÂËÅÍÈÉ,
È ÈÕ ÂÎÇÄÅÉÑÒÂÈÉ ÍÀ ÎÊÎËÎÇÅÌÍÎÅ ÊÎÑÌÈ×ÅÑÊÎÅ ÏÐÎÑÒÐÀÍÑÒÂÎ
ÍÀ ÏÅÐÈÎÄ 27.07 - 03.08.2015 ã.
È ÏÐÎÃÍÎÇ ÍÀ 03 - 10.08.2015 ã.
ÊÝÐÐÈÍÃÒÎÍÎÂÑÊÈÉ ÎÁÎÐÎÒ 2166 (14,84.07.2015)

ÏßÒÍÎÎÁÐÀÇÎÂÀÒÅËÜÍÀß ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÜ ÑÎËÍÖÀ ÁÛËÀ ÍÀ ÑÐÅÄÍÅÌ ÓÐÎÂÍÅ. ÐÀÑ-
רÒÍÎÅ, ÑÐÅÄÍÅÅ ÇÍÀ×ÅÍÈÅ ÎÒÍÎÑÈÒÅËÜÍÎÃÎ ×ÈÑËÀ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÏßÒÅÍ Â ÌÅÆ-
ÄÓÍÀÐÎÄÍÎÉ ÑÈÑÒÅÌÅ (íîâîé) ÑÎÑÒÀÂÈËÎ Wñ= 39+11/-8. ÍÀ ÂÈÄÈÌÎÌ ÄÈÑÊÅ
ÑÎËÍÖÀ ÏÎÑÒÎßÍÍÎ ÍÀÁËÞÄÀËÎÑÜ 3 - 5 ÍÅÁÎËÜØÈÕ ÃÐÓÏÏ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÏßÒÅÍ.

ÍÀ ÑËÅÄÓÞÙÅÉ ÍÅÄÅËÅ ÎÆÈÄÀÅÒÑß ÑÐÅÄÍÈÉ ÓÐÎÂÅÍÜ ÏßÒÍÎÎÁÐÀÇÎÂÀÒÅËÜÍÎÉ
ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÈ. ÍÀÈÁÎËÅÅ ÂÅÐÎßÒÍÎÅ, ÐÀÑרÒÍÎÅ, ÑÐÅÄÍÅÅ ÇÀ ÏÅÐÈÎÄ ÇÍÀ×Å-
ÍÈÅ ÎÒÍÎÑÈÒÅËÜÍÎÃÎ ×ÈÑËÀ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÏßÒÅÍ Â ÌÅÆÄÓÍÀÐÎÄÍÎÉ ÑÈÑÒÅÌÅ
W=040+20/-10.

ÂÑÏÛØÅ×ÍÀß ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÜ ÁÛËÀ ÍÀ Î×ÅÍÜ ÍÈÇÊÎÌ ÓÐÎÂÍÅ ÂÅÑÜ ÏÅÐÈÎÄ. ÎÄÈÍ
ÂÛÁÐÎÑ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÂÎËÎÊÎÍ ÍÀÁËÞÄÀËÎÑÜ ÇÀ ÏÅÐÈÎÄ. ÏÎ ÄÀÍÍÛÌ ÊÎÐÎÍÎÃÐÀ-
ÔÎÂ ÑÎÕÎ È ÑÒÅÐÅÎ ÇÀÐÅÃÈÑÒÐÈÐÎÂÀÍÎ ÁÎËÅÅ 8 ÊÎÐÎÍÀËÜÍÛÕ ÂÛÁÐÎÑÎÂ ÂÅ-
ÙÅÑÒÂÀ (CME).

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ÂÑÏÛØÊÈ
to tm te êîî-òû áàëë Å(1-8A) ÀÎ RII/IV CME
ðåíò/îï J/m-2
ÂÛÁÐÎÑÛ ÂÎËÎÊÎÍ
DSF to te êîîðäèíàòû l â ãðàä. Fl AÎ CME
28.07 >0117 >1257 S40E19L156 5
28.07 >1705 <0436 N24W24199 9
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ÍÀ ÑËÅÄÓÞÙÅÉ ÍÅÄÅËÅ ÂÑÏÛØÅ×ÍÀß ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÜ ÎÆÈÄÀÅÒÑß ÍÀ Î×ÅÍÜ
ÍÈÇÊÎÌ È ÍÈÇÊÎÌ ÓÐÎÂÍßÕ.

ÍÀ ÂÈÄÈÌÎÌ ÄÈÑÊÅ ÑÎËÍÖÀ ÍÀÁËÞÄÀËÈÑÜ ÊÎÐÎÍÀËÜÍÛÅ ÄÛÐÛ Ñ ÊÎÎÐÄÈÍÀÒÀÌÈ:
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çíàê N êîíåö Å êîíåö S êîíåö W êîíåö ÎÊÏ R G ÎÁÑÅÐÂÀÒÎÐÈÈ
CH - N58L179 N40L161 N30L174 N45L208 31.07 2 G1 SDO, SOHO...
CH + S15L157 S40L140 S45L141 S25L164 01.08 >11 G1 SDO, SOHO...
ÎÊÏ - äàòà âîçìîæíîãî ãåîìàãíèòíîãî âîçìóùåíèÿ â îêîëîçåìíîì êîñìè-
÷åñêîì ïðîñòðàíñòâå;
R - ñêîëüêî îáîðîòîâ íàáëþäàåòñÿ. ÊP - îáñåðâàòîðèÿ Êèò Ïèê.
G - ãåîýôôåêòèâíîñòü íà ïðîøëîì îáîðîòå; A-âîçìóù¸ííàÿ ãåîìàã. îáñò.
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C 30.07/1230 UT ÇÅÌËß ÍÀÕÎÄÈÒÑß Â "-" ÑÅÊÒÎÐÅ ÌÅÆÏËÀÍÅÒÍÎÃÎ ÌÀÃÍÈÒÍÎÃÎ
ÏÎËß. ÑËÅÄÓÞÙÓÞ ÑÅÊÒÎÐÍÓÞ ÃÐÀÍÈÖÓ -/+ ÇÅÌËß ÄÎËÆÍÀ ÏÐÎÉÒÈ 06.08.

ÈÞËÜ 27 28 29 30 31 01 02 ÀÂÃÓÑÒ
Wus 053 056 066 083 071 070 051
F10.7 100 101 101 102 101 103 102
Õbcg B2.2 B2.3 B2.2 B2.0 B2.3 B2.4 B2.4 GOES
Sp 240 210 200 270 360 290 230 ìäï
N 1 1 2
IMF + + + +/- - - - ÀÑÅ
å>2 6.7Å+6 1.3Å+7 2.1Å+7 1.8Å+7 2.4E+5 4.4E+6 2.4E+7 GOES
Ie>2 820 423 522 824 127 720 pfu GOES
Ap 12 9 5 13 14 9 9 íT BOULDER
Dst íT ÊÈÎÒÎ
Amsc 10 12 10 14 14 11 12 íT ÈÇÌÈÐÀÍ
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å>2 -ïèêîâûé ïîòîê çà ýëåêòðîíîâ ñ Å>2 MeV çà ñóòêè â e/(cm2-ster-day)
Ie>2-ìàêñèìàëüíàÿ èíòåíñèâíîñòü ïîòîêà ýëåêòðîíîâ íà ãåîñòàöèîíàðíûõ
îðáèòàõ çà ñóòêè ïî äàííûì GOES 15 â (electrons/cm2-s-sr);
(ñîáûòèÿ ñ ïîòîêîì >1000 pfu).

ÂÛÑÎÊÈÉ ÓÐÎÂÅÍÜ ÏÎÒÎÊÀ ÂÛÑÎÊÎÝÍÅÐÃÈ×ÍÛÕ ÝËÅÊÒÐÎÍÎÂ Ñ Å>2 Ìý ÍÀ ÃÅÎ-
ÑÒÀÖÈÎÍÀÐÍÛÕ ÎÐÁÈÒÀÕ ÍÅ ÍÀÁËÞÄÀËÑß.

ÍÀ ÑËÅÄÓÞÙÅÉ ÍÅÄÅËÅ ÂÛÑÎÊÈÉ ÓÐÎÂÅÍÜ ÏÎÒÎÊÀ ÂÛÑÎÊÎÝÍÅÐÃÈ×ÍÛÕ ÝËÅÊÒÐÎÍ-
ÎÂ Ñ Å>2 ÌýÂ ÍÅ ÎÆÈÄÀÅÒÑß.

ÃÅÎÌÀÃÍÈÒÍÀß ÎÁÑÒÀÍÎÂÊÀ ÁÛËÀ ÑÏÎÊÎÉÍÎÉ È ÑËÀÁÎÂÎÇÌÓÙ¨ÍÍÎÉ.

ÍÀ ÑËÅÄÓÞÙÅÉ ÍÅÄÅËÅ ÃÅÎÌÀÃÍÈÒÍÀß ÎÁÑÒÀÍÎÂÊÀ ÎÆÈÄÀÅÒÑß ÑÏÎÊÎÉÍÎÉ È ÑËÀÁÎ-
ÂÎÇÌÓÙ¨ÍÍÎÉ.

ÎÁÇÎÐ È ÏÐÎÃÍÎÇ ÑÎÑÒÀÂËÅÍ ÏÎ ÌÀÒÅÐÈÀËÀÌ ÑËÓÆÁÛ ÑÎËÍÖÀ
ÁÎÓËÄÅÐ, ÑØÀ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
ÖÅÍÒÐÀ ÑÁÎÐÀ È ÎÁÐÀÁÎÒÊÈ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÈÍÄÅÊÑÎÂ,
ÁÐÞÑÑÅËÜ, ÁÅËÜÃÈß http://sidc.oma.be/,
ÈÇÌÈÐÀÍ (ÒÐÎÈÖÊ, ÐÎÑÑÈß) http://www.izmiran.ru


Ïðåäâàðèòåëüíàÿ òàáëèöà äîñòîâåðíûõ è óñëîâíî-äîñòîâåðíûõ (8, 9)) öøêëîâ ÑÀ

№ Òî cycle W*min Òmax. Òmin. W*max. Durat. Incr. Decr.
Y, M Y, M Y, M Y Y Y
8 1833 XI(IX) 12.2 1837 III 1843 VI 244.9 9.67 3.33 6.33
9 1843 VII 17.6 1848 II 1855 XI 219.9 12.42 4.58 7.83
10 1855 XII 6.0 1860 II 1867 II 186.2 11.42 4.17 7.25
11 1867 III 9.9 1870VIII 1878 XI 234.0 11.92 3.42 8.50
12 1878 XII 3.7 1883 XII 1890 II 124.4 11.33 5.0 6.33
13 1890 III 8.3 1894 I 1901 XII 146.5 12.08 3.83 8.25
14 1902 I 4.5 1906 II 1913 VII 107.1 11.67 4.08 7.59
15 1913 VIII 2.5 1917VIII 1923 VII 175.7 10.08 4.0 6.08
16 1923 VIII 9.4 1928 IV 1933 VIII 130.2 10.25 4.67 5.58
17 1933 IX 5.8 1937 IV 1944 I 198.6 10.5 3.58 6.92
18 1944 II 12.9 1947 V 1954 III 218.7 10.25 3.25 7.00
19 1954 IV 5.1 1958 III 1964 IX 285.0 10.42 3.92 6.50
20 1964 X 14.3 1968 XI 1976 VI 156.6 11.83 4.08 7.75
21 1976 III(VI) 17.8 1979 XII 1986 VIII 232.9 10.41 3.25 7.16
22 1986 IX 13.5 1989 IX(VII)1996 IV 212.5 9.58 3.09 6.49
23 1996 V 11.2 2000 IV 2008 XI 175.2 12.7 3.83 8.87
24 2008 XII 2.2 2014 IV 2021 IV-IX 116.4 12 5.5 7
 ñêîáêàõ - â ñòàðîé ñèñòåìå; 24 ñîëíå÷íûé öèêë â íîâîé ñèñòåìå íà÷àëñÿ â
äåêàáðå 2008