Äîêóìåíò âçÿò èç êýøà ïîèñêîâîé ìàøèíû. Àäðåñ îðèãèíàëüíîãî äîêóìåíòà : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/ru/2012/obzor20120709.ru.txt Äàòà èçìåíåíèÿ: Mon Jul 9 17:38:28 2012 Äàòà èíäåêñèðîâàíèÿ: Sun Apr 10 00:54:54 2016 Êîäèðîâêà: koi8-r Ïîèñêîâûå ñëîâà: ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï ï

ÎÁÇÎÐ ÑÎÑÒÎßÍÈß ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÎÉ ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÈ, ÃÅÎÝÔÔÅÊÒÈÂÍÛÕ ßÂËÅÍÈÉ
È ÈÕ ÂÎÇÄÅÉÑÒÂÈÉ ÍÀ ÎÊÎËÎÇÅÌÍÎÅ ÊÎÑÌÈ×ÅÑÊÎÅ ÏÐÎÑÒÐÀÍÑÒÂÎ
ÍÀ ÏÅÐÈÎÄ 02 - 08.07.2012 ã.
È ÏÐÎÃÍÎÇ ÍÀ 09 - 16.07.2012 ã.
ÊÝÐÐÈÍÃÒÎÍÎÂÑÊÈÉ ÎÁÎÐÎÒ 2125 (21,62.06.2012)

ÏßÒÍÎÎÁÐÀÇÎÂÀÒÅËÜÍÀß ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÜ ÑÎËÍÖÀ ÎÑÒÀÂÀËÀÑÜ ÍÀ ÑÐÅÄÍÅÌ ÓÐÎÂÍÅ
ÂÑÅ ÄÍÈ, ÊÐÎÌÅ 2 ÈÞËß, ÊÎÃÄÀ ÁÛË ÎÒÌÅ×ÅÍ ÂÛÑÎÊÈÉ ÓÐÎÂÅÍÜ. ÐÀÑרÒÍÎÅ,
ÑÐÅÄÍÅÅ ÇÀ ÏÅÐÈÎÄ ÇÍÀ×ÅÍÈÅ ÎÒÍÎÑÈÒÅËÜÍÎÃÎ ×ÈÑËÀ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÏßÒÅÍ Â
ÌÅÆÄÓÍÀÐÎÄÍÎÉ ÑÈÑÒÅÌÅ ÑÎÑÒÀÂÈËÎ W=079+20/-6. ÍÀ ÂÈÄÈÌÎÌ ÄÈÑÊÅ ÑÎËÍ-
ÖÀ ÏÎÑÒÎßÍÍÎ ÏÐÈÑÓÒÑÒÂÎÂÀËÈ 5-6 ÃÐÓÏÏ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÏßÒÅÍ, ÄÂÅ ÈÇ ÊÎÒÎ-
ÐÛÕ ÁÛËÈ ÁÎËÜØÈÌÈ:

AR11515 (S16L205, Sp=850 ì.ä.ï. ÍÀ 30.06) - ÏÎßÂÈËÀÑÜ ÈÇ-ÇÀ ÂÎÑÒÎ×ÍÎ-
ÃÎ ËÈÌÁÀ Â ÊÎÍÖÅ ÑÓÒÎÊ 25.06 ÃÐÓÏÏÎÉ ÏßÒÅÍ ÑÐÅÄÍÅÃÎ ÐÀÇÌÅÐÀ. ÂÎÇÌÎÆÍÎ
ÑÎÑÒÀÂËßÅÒ ÊÎÌÏËÅÊÑ ÀÊÒÈÂÍÛÕ ÎÁËÀÑÒÅÉ Ñ AR11514. Ñ 30.06 ÍÀ 1.07 ÓÂÅ-
ËÈ×ÈËÀ ÏËÎÙÀÄÜ Â 2.5 ÐÀÇÀ (ÂÑÏËÛÒÈÅ ÍÎÂÎÃÎ ÌÀÃÍÈÒÎÃÎ ÏÎÒÊÀ), ×ÅÌ ÂÛÇ-
ÂÀËÀ ÐÅÇÊÎÅ ÂÎÇÐÀÑÒÀÍÈÅ ÂÑÏÛØÅ×ÍÎÉ ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÈ ÑÎ 2 ÈÞÍß. ÄÎ 8 ÈÞËß Â
ÀÎ ÎÑÓÙÅÑÒÂÈËÎÑÜ 5 ÁÎËÜØÈÕ È 26 ÑÐÅÄÍÈÕ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÂÑÏÛØÅÊ.

AR11520 (S15L088, Sp = 1070 ì.ä.ï. ÍÀ 8.07) - ÎÁÐÀÇÎÂÀËÀÑÜ ÍÀ ÂÈÄÈÌÎÌ
ÄÈÑÊÅ 06.07 Ó ÂÎÑÒÎ×ÍÎÃÎ ËÈÌÁÀ. ÁÛÑÒÐÎÅ ÐÀÇÂÈÒÈÅ ÏÐÅÄÏÎËÀÃÀÅÒ ÂÛÑÎÊÓÞ
ÂÑÏÛØÅ×ÍÓÞ ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÜ, ÍÀ×ÈÍÀß Ñ 9-10 ÈÞËß.

ÍÀ ÑËÅÄÓÞÙÅÉ ÍÅÄÅËÅ ÎÆÈÄÀÅÒÑß ÑÐÅÄÍÈÉ ÓÐÎÂÅÍÜ Ï ßÒÍÎÎÁÐÀÇÎÂÀÒÅËÜÍÎÉ
ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÈ. ÍÀÈÁÎËÅÅ ÂÅÐÎßÒÍÎÅ, ÐÀÑרÒÍÎÅ, ÑÐÅÄÍÅÅ ÇÀ ÏÅÐÈÎÄ ÇÍÀ×ÅÍÈÅ
ÎÒÍÎÑÈÒÅËÜÍÎÃÎ ×ÈÑËÀ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÏßÒÅÍ Â ÌÅÆÄÓÍÀÐÎÄÍÎÉ ÑÈÑÒÅÌÅ
W=060+20/-10.

ÂÑÏÛØÅ×ÍÀß ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÜ ÁÛËÀ ÍÀ ÂÛÑÎÊÎÌ ÓÐÎÂÍÅ 2, 4-6 È 8 ÈÞËß, ÍÀ ÑÐÅÄ-
ÍÅÌ ÓÐÎÂÍÅ 2 È 7.07 ÇÀ Ñ×¨Ò ÁÎËÜØÎÉ ÂÑÏÛØÅ×ÍÎÉ ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÈ AR11515. ÏÎ
ÄÀÍÍÛÌ ÊÎÐÎÍÎÃÐÀÔÎÂ ÑÎÕÎ È ÑÒÅÐÅÎ ÇÀ ÏÅÐÈÎÄ ÍÀÁËÞÄÀËÎÑÜ ÁÎËÅÅ 40 ÊÎÐÎ-
ÍÀËÜÍÛÕ ÂÛÁÐÎÑΠÂÅÙÅÑÒÂÀ, ÑÐÅÄÈ ÊÎÒÎÐÛÕ 7 ÁÛËÎ "×ÀÑÒÈ×ÍÎÅ ÃÀËÎ II".

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ÂÑÏÛØÊÈ to tm te êîî-òû áàëë Å(1-8A) ÀÎ RII/IV CME
ðåíò/îï J/m-2
02.07 0025 0036 0050 N15E01L216 M1.1/2B 4.6E-3 11513
02.07 1035 1052 1114 S17E08L205 M5.6/1B 2.7E-2 11515
02.07 1959 2007 >2013 s17e03L205 M3.8/ 1.8E-2 11515
02.07 2349 2356 >0003 S16W02L205 M2.0/SF 1.1E-2 11515
04.07 0428 0437 0502 S17W18L205 M2.3/SN 1.6E-2 11515 IV/1
04.07 0601 0955 1250 S20W18L205 2B/M5.3 1.4E-2 11515
1207 1224 >1232 S20W18L205 2B/M2.3 2.6E-2 11515
04.07 1435 1440 1558 S18W18L205 M1.3/SN 2.3E-3 11515 II/1
04.07 1626 1639 1722 N14W34L216 2N/M1.8 1.2E-2 11513 II/1
04.07 2203 2209 >2215 s17w21L205 M4.6/ 2.0E-2 11515
04.07 2347 2355 >0002 s17W21L205 M1.2/ 2.0E-3 11515
05.07 0105 0110 0121 S18W26L205 M2.4/3N 4.8E-3 11515
05.07 0235 0242 >0247 s17w27L205 M2.2/ 9.7E-3 11515
05.07 0325 0336 >0339 s17w28L205 M4.7/ 1.4E-2 11515
05.07 0615 0658 0743 S18W39L205 F1/M1.1 8.5E-3 11515
05.07 0740 0745 >0748 s14e62L107 M1.3/ 3.8E-3 11519
05.07 1044 1048 1118 S19W30L205 M1.8/SN 3.2E-3 11515
05.07 1139 1144 1210 S20W32L205 M6.1/1B 1.8E-2 11515
05.07 1301 1318 1418 S16W43L205 2N/M1.2 1.5E-2 11515
05.07 2009 2014 2100 S18W38L205 M1.6/SF 1.3E-2 11515
05.07 2137 2145 2243 S12W46L205 M1.6/1N 8.6E-3 11515
06.07 0137 0140 0156 S18W42L205 M2.9/SN 4.1E-3 11515
06.07 0230 0251 0318 S11W55L205 1N/M1.0 6.7E-3 11515
06.07 0807 0823 0925 S17W40L205 SB/M1.5 5.3E-3 11515
06.07 1024 1029 1051 S17W42L205 M1.8/1N 5.2E-3 11515
06.07 1324 1330 1355 S20W45L205 SF/M1.2 2.1E-3 11515 IV/1
06.07 1848 1855 >1907 S18W51L205 M1.3/SF 8.3E-2 11515
06.07 2301 2308 >2314 s17w55L205 X1.1/ 4.3E-2 11515 II/3 IV/1 CME
07.07 0310 0315 >0323 S17W51L205 M1.2/SF 6.7E-3 11515
07.07 0818 0828 >0839 s14e60L088 M1.0/ 9.6E-3 11520
07.07 1057 1103 1117 S19W58L205 M2.6/SF 8.3E-3 11515
08.07 0541 0546 0643 S13W80L205 M1.3/1F 6.0E-3 11515
08.07 0944 0953 1010 S21W67L205 M1.1/1F 4.4E-3 11515
08.07 1205 1209 1229 S21W69L205 1F/M1.4 3.5E-2 11515
08.07 1623 1632 1646 S17W74L205 M6.9/1N 4.5E-2 11515 II/2 CME/1648

ÂÛÁÐÎÑÛ ÂÎËÎÊÎÍ
to te êîîðä.öåíòðà l â ãðàä. Fl AÎ CME
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ÍÀ ÑËÅÄÓÞÙÅÉ ÍÅÄÅËÅ ÂÑÏÛØÅ×ÍÀß ÀÊÒÈÂÍÎÑÒÜ ÎÆÈÄÀÅÒÑß ÍÀ ÂÛÑÎÊÎÌ È ÑÐÅÄ-
ÍÅÌ ÓÐÎÂÍßÕ. ÁÎËÜØÈÅ ÂÑÏÛØÊÈ ÂÎÇÌÎÆÍÛ Â ÏÅÐÈÎÄ 9-12 ÈÞËß Â AR11520.

ÍÀ ÂÈÄÈÌÎÌ ÄÈÑÊÅ ÑÎËÍÖÀ ÍÀÁËÞÄÀËÈÑÜ ÊÎÐÎÍÀËÜÍÛÅ ÄÛÐÛ Ñ ÊÎÎÐÄÈÍÀÒÀÌÈ:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
çíàê N êîíåö Å êîíåö S êîíåö W êîíåö ÎÊÏ R ÎÁÑÅÐÂÀÒÎÐÈÈ
CH - N48L154 N46L130 N18L154 N205L167 09.07 3 KP, SDO, SOHO...
ÎÊÏ - äàòà âîçìîæíîãî ãåîìàãíèòíîãî âîçìóùåíèÿ â îêîëîçåìíîì êîñìè-
÷åñêîì ïðîñòðàíñòâå;
R - ñêîëüêî îáîðîòîâ íàáëþäàåòñÿ. ÊP - îáñåðâàòîðèÿ Êèò Ïèê.
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Ñ 06.07/22 ÏÎ 08.07/05 UT ÇÅÌËß ÍÀÕÎÄÈËÀÑÜ Â "+" ÑÅÊÒÎÐÅ ÌÅÆÏËÀÍÅÒÍÎÃÎ
ÌÀÃÍÈÒÍÎÃÎ ÏÎËß. ÑËÅÄÓÞÙÓÞ ÑÅÊÒÎÐÍÓÞ ÃÐÀÍÈÖÓ -/ + ÇÅÌËß ÄÎËÆÍÀ ÏÐÎÉÒÈ
10.07.

ÈÞÍÜ 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 ÈÞÍÜ
Wus 165 136 129 122 131 127 112
F10.7 166 146 163 165 158 158 178
Õbcg Â8.4 Ñ1.0 Ñ2.0 Ñ2.6 Ñ2.4 Ñ1.5 Ñ2.0 GOES
Sp 1130 1000 990 1050 1240 1590 1910
N 2 1
IMF + + + + +/- - -/+ ACE
å>2 1.1Å+8 3.6E+8 4.2E+8 4.1Å+8 9.2Å+7 3.4Å+7 3.4E+7 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 19 10 9 14 16 8 13 Àð
Dst ÊÈÎÒÎ
Amsc 16 12 11 19 18 10 12 ÈÇÌÈÐÀÍ
--------------------------------------------------------------------

ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÎÅ ÏÐÎÒÎÍÍÎÅ ÑÎÁÛÒÈÅ ÌÀËÎÉ ÈÍÒÅÍÑÈÂÍÎÑÒÈ ÍÀÁËÞÄÀËÎÑÜ ÎÒ ÂÑÏÛØÊÈ
ÁÀËËÀ Õ1.1 6 ÈÞËß:
Pr (E>10 MeV) - 07/0400 UT; tmax=25 p.f.u. - 7/0745 UT; te - 7/2110 UT.

ÅÙ¨ ÎÄÍÎ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÎÅ ÏÐÎÒÎÍÍÎÅ ÑÎÁÛÒÈÅ ÌÀËÎÉ ÈÍÒÅÍÑÈÂÍÎÑÒÈ ÍÀ×ÀËÎÑÜ ÎÒ
ÂÑÏÛØÊÈ ÁÀËËÀ Ì6.9 8 ÈÞËß - 09/0130 UT.

ÂÛÑÎÊÈÉ ÓÐÎÂÅÍÜ ÏÎÒÎÊÀ ÂÛÑÎÊÎÝÍÅÐÃÈ×ÍÛÕ ÝËÅÊÒÐÎÍÎÂ Ñ Å>2 Ìý ÍÀ ÃÅÎ-
ÑÒÀÖÈÎÍÀÐÍÛÕ ÎÐÁÈÒÀÕ ÍÀÁËÞÄÀËÑß Ñ 1.07/1320 UT ÏÎ 06.07.

ÍÀ ÑËÅÄÓÞÙÅÉ ÍÅÄÅËÅ ÂÛÑÎÊÈÉ ÓÐÎÂÅÍÜ ÏÎÒÎÊÀ ÂÛÑÎÊÎÝÍÅÐÃÈ×ÍÛÕ ÝËÅÊÒÐÎ-
ÍÎÂ Ñ Å > 2 ÌýÂ ÎÆÈÄÀÅÒÑß 16-18.07.

ÍÀ ÏÐÎØÅÄØÅÉ ÍÅÄÅËÅ ÃÅÎÌÀÃÍÈÒÍÀß ÎÁÑÒÀÍÎÂÊÀ ÌÅÍßËÀÑÜ ÎÒ ÑËÀÁÎÂÎÇÌÓÙ¨Í-
ÍÎÉ ÄÎ ÂÎÇÌÓÙ¨ÍÍÎÉ (2, 5-6.07).

ÍÀ ÑËÅÄÓÞÙÅÉ ÍÅÄÅËÅ ÃÅÎÌÀÃÍÈÒÍÀß ÎÁÑÒÀÍÎÂÊÀ ÎÆÈÄÀÅÒÑß ÑËÀÁÎÂÎÇÌÓÙ¨Í-
ÍÎÉ È ÂÎÇÌÓÙ¨ÍÍÎÉ. ÌÀÃÍÈÒÍÛÅ ÁÓÐÈ ÎÒ ÂÑÏÛØÅ×ÍÛÕ ÑÎÁÛÒÈÉ Â AR11520, ÅÑ-
ËÈ ÝÒÈ ÑÎÁÛÒÈß ÐÅÀËÈÇÓÞÒÑß (ÏÎÊÀ ÂÅÐÎßÒÍÎÑÒÜ ÍÅ ÁÎËÅÅ 25%), ÌÎÃÓÒ ÏÐÎ-
ÈÇÎÉÒÈ ÏÎÑËÅ 12 ÈÞËß.


ÎÁÇÎÐ È ÏÐÎÃÍÎÇ ÑÎÑÒÀÂËÅÍ ÏÎ ÌÀÒÅÐÈÀËÀÌ ÑËÓÆÁÛ ÑÎËÍÖÀ
ÁÎÓËÄÅÐ, ÑØÀ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
ÖÅÍÒÐÀ ÑÁÎÐÀ È ÎÁÐÀÁÎÒÊÈ ÑÎËÍÅ×ÍÛÕ ÈÍÄÅÊÑÎÂ,
ÁÐÞÑÑÅËÜ, ÁÅËÜÃÈß http://sidc.oma.be/,
ÈÇÌÈÐÀÍ (ÒÐÎÈÖÊ, ÐÎÑÑÈß) http://www.izmiran.ru