Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2016/obzor20160321.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Mar 21 15:44:23 2016 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:52:43 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: п п п п п п п

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 14 - 20.03.2016,
Forecast on 21 - 28.03.2016,
Carrington Rotations 2174, 2175 (18,17.02; 16,50.03.2016)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON THE AVERAGE, AND THE
LAST THREE DAYS - ON THE LOW LEVEL. CALCULATED, AVERAGE VALUE OF
SUNSPOT RELATIVE NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE
PERIOD MADE W=26+14/-11 (Wn= 41+12/-26). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE
SUN 5 - 2 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED.

THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LEVELS OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVE-
RAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 030+15/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 15, 16 AND 20.03, AND AT THE
VERY LOW -ON OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION
OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD, ONE OF WHICH WAS VERY LONG. ACCOR-
DING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS, >33 CMEs, ONE
WAS "PARTIALE HALO II" TYPE (angular width 90-180 deg.) HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
16.03 0634 0646 >0657 C2.2/ 2.2E-03 12522 II/2 СМЕ Pr
DSF to te Localization l в град. Fl AО CME/to
16.03 >0001 >1412 N24W47L051 7
16.03 2114 2147 S48W42L046 12
19.03 2146 2310 S28W04L324 17
20.03 0719 1059 S15E34L273 8
----------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Observatories
CH - S20L045 S50д355 Ps S22L050 278800 15.02 2 G1 SDO, SOHO..
CH + N45L285 N40L280 N15L315 N30L345 n/d 21.02 10 SDO, SOHO..
Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 14.03/18 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS
24.03.

МАРТ 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 МАРТ
Wus 057 044 053 066 029 026 025
F10.7 093 094 091 092 090 089 088
Хbcg В1.5 В1.9 B1.8 B1.6 В1.2 B1.2 A9.3 GOES
Sp 220 170 190 320 300 410 310 msh
N 1 2 1
IMF +/- - - - - - - АСЕ
е>2 3.9Е+6 4.6Е+6 7.7Е+7 8.7Е+7 1.9E+8 2.9E+7 3.4Е+7 GOES
Ie>2 245 203 3690 2338 7410 980 1640 pfu GOES
Ap 15 27 21 24 9 19 12 nT BOULDER
Dst -20 -49 -55 -51 -27 -50 -41 nТ KИOTO
Amsc 14 25 19 20 12 17 14 nT ИЗМИРАН
--------------------------------------------------------------------
е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN AT
16.03/1300 UT AND WAS ODSERVED 16 - 20.03.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 21 - 23.03.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS DEFINED BY THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF
VERY EXTENDED POLAR CORONAL HOLE (CH HSS) OF THE SOLAR SOUTHERN HE-
MISPHERE ON WHICH DISTURBATIONS FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS WERE
IMPOSED. MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 31, dur.= 18 h). ACCORDING
TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER 14-15.03 WAS REGISTERED. ACCORDING TO THE
IZMIRAN DATA IT WAS A 9-hour SUBSTORM (G0). AT THE END OF THE DAYS
15.03 BOTH OBSERVATORIES HAVE REGISTERED THE INTENSIVE (G1 AND G2)
SUBSTORM LASTING 9 h. AT THE END OF THE DAYS 16.03 THE FOLLOWING MI-
NOR MAGNETIC STORM HAS BEGUN (G1, Ams= 37, dur.=15 h). ACCORDING TO
THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND (G0, Ams=24, dur.=12 h). ON TO IZMIRAN DA-
TA. AND ONE MORE THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM IS NOTED ON MARCH 19 (G0,
Ams = 24, dur. = 12 h). ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND 6-h.
SUBSTORM (G0) TO IZMIRAN DATA. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDINIONS
WERE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE.
THE POSITIVE CORONAL HOLE DURING THE PRESENT PERIOD OF GEOEFFECTIVE
SHOULDN'T BE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru