Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2016/obzor20160229.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Feb 29 15:25:55 2016 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:52:36 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: south pole

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 22 - 28.02.2016,
Forecast on 29.02 - 06.03.2016,
Carrington Rotation 2174 (18,17.02.2016)

SUNSPOT-FORMED ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WERE AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL 24,
26-28.02.CALCULATED, AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT RELATIVE NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD MADE W = 20+5/-4
(Wn = 33+6/-8). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 3 - 4 SMALL QUITE
SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED.

THE MIDDLE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMED ACTIVITY IS EX-
PECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE
VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 030+15/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL 24, 26-28.02 AND AT THE LOW
LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. TWO EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS HAVE BEEN OB-
SERVED. ACCORDING TO SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA > 9 CMEs,
TWO WERE "PARTIALE HALO II" TYPE (angular width 90 - 180 deg.).

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
DSF to te Localization l в град. Fl AО CME/to
27.02 0400 S15Е75L168 ? СМЕ/0436 II
28.02 <0038 <0113 S16E19L211 20
----------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end Sch EE R G Observatories
CH + N50L334 N40L302 N20L324 N30L352 40500 8.02 7 no SDO, SOHO..
CH + N30L299 N30L299 N15L315 N25L322 11200 10.02 7 no SDO, SOHO..
CH + Pn N45L214 N17L236 N40L266 168400 27.02 7 G0 SDO, SOHO..
CH + N10L244 N05L236 S03L244 N08L246 6500 28.02 7 SDO, SOHO..
CH + S07L249 S12L243 S15L239 S10L254 3200 27.02 7 no SDO, SOHO..
All CH - one polar CH.
Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 25.02/17 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 5.03.

FEBRUARY 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 FEBRUARY
Wus 029 027 039 026 041 037 038
F10.7 094 091 088 092 089 090 093
Хbcg В1.6 В1.5 B1.3 B1.4 В1.2 B1.5 В1.7 GOES
Sp 220 230 230 050 060 070 120 мдп
N 1 1 1
IMF - - - -/+ + + + АСЕ
е>2 3.9Е+8 2.1Е+8 3.0Е+7 2.3Е+7 1.9E+7 1.9E+7 3.2Е+7 GOES
Ie>2 13209 6678 1937 932 502 583 1134 pfu GOES
Ap 3 6 7 5 6 3 3 нT BOULDER
Dst нТ KIOTO
Amsc 4 8 8 6 7 4 5 нT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BEGIN-
NING 17.02/1330 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 17 - 24.02. NEXT FLUX WAS BEGINNING
28/1410 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 28 - 29.02.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IN ALL DAYS WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVEL.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru