Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2016/obzor20160201.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Feb 1 16:50:23 2016 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:52:26 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: south pole

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JANUARY 2016 HAS MADE
Wjan. = 34.0, 56.6 (new)
THAT GIVES FOR 77 MONTHS (2015, JUNE) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE
OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*июль = 41.0; 68.2 - new system;
W*июнь = 43.2; 72.0 - new system;

- On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal-
culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the
minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA.
Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system,
if it remains.

THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2)
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM-IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4)
THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020;

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2016,
JANUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 78 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:

1.. 35 6.. 33 11.. 49 16.. 44 21.. 61 26.. 70 31.. 32m
2.. 39 7.. 60 12.. 41 17.. 57 22.. 67 27.. 83
3.. 51 8.. 86 13.. 37 18.. 54 23.. 63 28.. 76
4.. 67 9.. 95M 14.. 42 19.. 66 24.. 48 29.. 65
5.. 34 10.. 90 15.. 46 20.. 61 25.. 68 30.. 36

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
2016, JANUARY
Fjan. = XXX (no data for the present)

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, JANUARY
Ap jan. = XXX (no data for the present)
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 25 - 31.01.2016,
Forecast on 01 - 08.02.2016,
Carrington Rotation 2173 (21,83.05.2016)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL. ESTI-
MATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) WAS W = 32+11/-14 (Wn = 52+20/-23). ON
THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 4 - 2 QUITE AND SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS.

THE MIDDLE AND IN SEPARATE DAYS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE SUNSPOT-FOR-
MING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST
LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 030+15/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ALL DAYS AT A LOW LEVEL, EXCEPT - 31.01 - VERY
LOW. FIVE EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ACCOR-
DING TO SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >26 CMEsБ ONE WAS TYPE
II (angular width - 90-180 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
DSF to te Localization l в град. Fl AО CME/to
26.01 1652 1748 S18-32W11-38L325 31 12486 CME/gap
28.01 >0009 >1428 N20W44L312 9
29.01 0755 0901 S36-40W27-50L292 22
29.01 ~2100 S20W83L337 >20 C2.0 12486 CME/2117
30.01 1430 1630 N08E56L185 ? CME/1624
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end Sch EE R G Observatories
CH + N50L335 N42L324 N25L352 N28L354 26200 25.01 G0 SDO, SOHO..
CH + Pn L307 N65L227 N18L287 N40L327 183500 27.01 G0 SDO, SOHO..
CH + N02L236 S08L228 S12L240 S00L238 4600 3.02 G1 SDO, SOHO..
First 2 CH - the parts of polar CH.
Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the
Earth's environment. G(0-5) - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 27.01/0830 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO
PASS 29.01.

JANUARY 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 JANUARY
Wus 058 061 075 064 049 030 039
F10.7 108 115 113 110 107 105 101
Хbcg В2.6 В2.4 B3.1 B2.5 В2.7 B2.7 B2.5 GOES
Sp 330 360 500 540 460 390 260 msh
N 2
IMF - - -/+ + + + + АСЕ
е>2 5.6Е+7 1.0Е+8 5.8Е+7 1.3Е+7 1.8E+6 3.7E+6 1.1Е+6 GOES
Ie>2 1553 2117 1176 676 pfu GOES
Ap 2 3 6 6 3 2 8 nT BOULDER
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 4 5 5 5 4 4 16 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GINNING AT 22.01/1325 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 22 - 27.01.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 1 - 7.02.

GEOMAGNETIC FUELD ACTIVITY WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
THROUGH THEV PERIOD.

NEXT WEEK THE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED 1, 3 -
4.02 DUE TO RECURRENT POSITIVE CORONAL HOLE HIGH-SPEED STREAMS AC-
TIVITY. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM 3 - 4.01 ABOUT 40%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru