Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2016/obzor20160208.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Feb 8 11:56:32 2016 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:52:28 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JANUARY 2016 HAS MADE
Wjan. = 34.0, 56.6 (new)
THAT GIVES FOR 77 MONTHS (2015, JUNE) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE
OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*июль = 41.0; 68.2 - new system;
W*июнь = 43.2; 72.0 - new system;

- On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal-
culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the
minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA.
Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system,
if it remains.

THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2)
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM-IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4)
THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020;

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2016,
JANUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 78 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:

1.. 35 6.. 33 11.. 49 16.. 44 21.. 61 26.. 70 31.. 32m
2.. 39 7.. 60 12.. 41 17.. 57 22.. 67 27.. 83
3.. 51 8.. 86 13.. 37 18.. 54 23.. 63 28.. 76
4.. 67 9.. 95M 14.. 42 19.. 66 24.. 48 29.. 65
5.. 34 10.. 90 15.. 46 20.. 61 25.. 68 30.. 36

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
2016, JANUARY
F10.7jan. = 103.4

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, JANUARY
Ap jan. = 10.0
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 01 - 07.02.2016,
Forecast on 08 - 15.02.2016,
Carrington Rotation 2173 (21,83.05.2016)

SUNSPOT-FORMED ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL,
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 5.02, AND THEN BEGAN TO DECREASE. CALCULA-
TED, AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT RELATIVE NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD MADE W = 46+22/-21 (Wn= 73+35/-33). ON
THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 3-7 SMALL AND QUIET SUNSPOT GROUPS WE-
RE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED.

THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE
NEXT WEEK. ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT
WEEK IS W = 030+15/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ALL DAYS AT A LOW LEVEL. FIVE EJECTIONS OF SOLAR
FILAMENTS, ONE GEOEFFECTIVE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ACCORDING TO SOHO
AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >21 CMEs.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
DSF to te Localization l в град. Fl AО CME/to
04.02 >2337 >1447 N22W49L224 6
05.02 ~0500 S05W40L202 ? CME/0624
05.02 0752 1458 N37W33L195 8
05.02 1829 1941 N02E08L155 9 12491
05.02 1939 2016 S14W30l191 10
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end Sch EE R G Observatories
CH + N02L236 S08L228 S12L240 S00L238 4600 3.02 2 G1 SDO, SOHO..
CH - N18L157 N19L159 S08L174 N01L175 n/d 8.02 5 G0 SDO, SOHO..
CH - S12L117 S17L113 S19L117 S15L120 n/d 12.02 G0 SDO, SOHO..
Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the
Earth's environment. G(0-5) - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 7.01/05 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 29.01.

FEBRUARY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 FEBRUARY
Wus 042 052 078 095 113 071 084
F10.7 100 102 112 123 120 117 117
Хbcg В2.4 В2.2 B3.8 B4.5 В3.9 B3.8 B3.8 GOES
Sp 320 300 380 500 400 390 460 msh
N 1 1 1 2 1
IMF + + + + + + +/- АСЕ
е>2 2.9Е+4 3.0Е+4 2.7Е+4 3.8Е+4 4.7E+5 7.5E+6 3.4Е+6 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 7 6 13 6 11 9 9 nT BOULDER
Dst nТ KIOTO
Amsc 8 7 10 5 9 10 11 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS NOT
OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 9 - 15.02.

GEOMAGNETIC FUELD ACTIVITY WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.
HOWEVER 8.02 EARTH WILL ENTER IN THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR
WIND FROM TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE OF NEGATIVE POLARITY, AND 9.
02 NEAR-EARTH SPACE ENVIRONMENT WILL TOUCH WITH THE SLIDING BLOW CME
FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTA 5.02., SO 8-10.02 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION
CAN BE ACTIVE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM THESE DAYS ABOUT 10%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru