Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20151221.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Dec 21 15:58:00 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:52:13 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 14 - 20.12.2015 г.,
Forecast on 21 - 27.12.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2171 (28,17.11.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL.
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) WAS W=32+17/-12 (Wn=51+27/-19). ON
THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 6 -2 QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE - BIG, HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED.

THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON
THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE
OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE
NEXT WEEK IS W = 040+15/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY ALL DAYS WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL. ACCORDING TO THE DA-
TA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS >24 CMEs, THREE-A TYPE II (an-
gular width 180 - 270 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2

DSF to te Localization l в град. Fl AО CME
15.12 >1035 >2209 S48E50L072 20
15.12 >1035 >2209 N37E34L088 30 CME
16.12 <1345 ~1430 S25E20L089 >30 В8 CME/1424
16.12 >1203 >0742 S40E04L105 10 CME
17.12 >1406 >0703 N18E49L060 15
18.12 0025 0642 S26E30L040 16
18.12 0109 0429 N22E43L079 22
----------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE DEFINED, COMING TO THE VISIBLE DISK
OF THE SUN, FLARE-ACTIVITY AR12472 WHICH 21.12 ALREADY OCCURENCED SO-
LAR FLARE OF MIDDLE CLASS M2.8 (N01E81L322). IT ISN'T POSSIBLE TO ES-
TIMATE ITS FLARE POTENTIAL YET.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH - N30L134 N28L131 N05L158 N09L168 15.12 3 G0 SDO, SOHO...
CH - N35L114 N33L111 N25L121 N28L126 18.12 1 G0 SDO, SOHO...
The last CH was formed 10.12 on a visible disk.
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory.
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G(0-5) - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 14.12/1130 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 23.12.

DECEMBER 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 DECEMBER
Wus 081 064 049 052 049 044 033
F10.7 124 119 126 118 117 119 117
Хbcg В3.7 В3.2 B3.9 B2.8 В2.8 B3.5 B5.8 GOES
Sp 480 660 580 650 570 460 430 msh
N 1
IMF +/- - - - - -/+ +/- АСЕ
е>2 3.3Е+8 2.7Е+6 1.9Е+7 2.8Е+7 3.4E+7 3.6E+7 5.5Е+5 GOES
Ie>2 20580 122 397 603 933 2825 167 pfu GOES
Ap 22 19 7 6 5 13 62 nT BOULDER
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 23 18 5 9 5 14 57 nT IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------
е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS WAS
BEGINNING AT 07.12/0945 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 7 - 13.12.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 14 - 15.12.

14 - 15.12 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE TO THE MODERATE MAGNETIC
STORM (G1, Ams= 42, dur.= 12 h.) TO IZMIRAN DATA AND (G1, Ams=40, dur.
= 15 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER. The SECOND MODERATE MAG-
NETIC STORM (G2, Ams ~ 60, dur.>39 h.) PROCEEDS ON ALL PLANET FOR THE
PERIOD OF HIGHLIGHT RELEASE. THE FIRST MAGNETIC STORM WAS A CONSEQUEN-
CE OF EARTH's PASSING OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLE OF
THE SOLAR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE SECOND - FROM DISTURBANCES (CMEs)
OF A SERIES OF EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS 15 - 16.12. IN OTHER DAYS
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru