Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20151207.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Dec 7 11:48:38 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:52:09 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: iss

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON NOVEMBER 2015 HAS MADE
Wnov. = 37.1, 63.2 (new)
THAT GIVES FOR 75 MONTHS (2015, APRIL) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE
OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*may = 45.6; 76.0 - in new system;
W*apr. = 49.3; 78.9 - in new system;
- On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal-
culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the
minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA.
Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system,
if it remains.

THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2)
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM-IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4)
THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020;

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2015,
NOVEMBER ACCORDING DATA OF 79 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:

1.. 86 6.. 81 11.. 63 16.. 43 21.. 59 26.. 64
2..104 7.. 84 12.. 60 17.. 35 22.. 70 27.. 59
3.. 84 8.. 76 13.. 50 18.. 29m 23.. 55 28.. 52
4..105М 9.. 67 14.. 39 19.. 41 24.. 59 29.. 54
5.. 85 10.. 71 15.. 58 20.. 53 25.. 62 30.. 48

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
2015, NOVEMBER
Fnov. = 109.3

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2015, NOVEMBER
Ap nov. = 12.0
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 30.11 - 06.12.2015,
Forecast on 07 - 14.12.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2171 (28,17.11.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN CHANGED FROM THE MIDDLE TO LOW
LEVEL. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) WAS W=22+9/-7 (Wн=35+14/-11).
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 2 - 4 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED.

THE MIDDLE AND THE LOW LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EX-
PECTED ON THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVE-
RAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYS-
TEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 030+15/-15.

FLARE ACTIVITY ALL DAYS WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL. ACCORDING TO THE DATA
FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS > 22 CMEs, ONE-A TYPE II (angular
width 180 - 270 deg.) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2

DSF to te Localization l в град. Fl AО CME
02.12 1734 1751 S33E90L204 ? CME/1826

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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND VARY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH + N50L275 N35L245 N18L280 N36L298 4.12 6 G1 SDO, SOHO...
CH + N90L264 N60L184 S05L269 N30L304 7.12 6 SDO, SOHO...
CH + S01L262 S12L209 S22L214 S05L266 8.12 6 G1 SDO, SOHO...
The last CH repeatedly connected to big subpolar CH; the southern part
is steady all the time of existence.
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory.
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 30.11/06 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 15.12.

NOVEMBER 30 01 02 03 04 05 06 DECEMBER
Wus 051 027 026 047 025 041 038
F10.7 096 095 095 095 098 101 102
Хbcg В1.9 В1.9 B1.8 B1.9 В2.3 B2.5 B2.4 GOES
Sp 120 070 060 050 120 170 130 msh
N 2 1
IMF -/+ + + + + + + АСЕ
е>2 9.0Е+5 4.6Е+6 3.7Е+7 5.9Е+7 6.7E+7 1.6E+7 1.2Е+7 GOES
Ie>2 302 1420 1537 1474 805 485 pfu GOES
Ap 19 15 10 3 5 19 27 nT BOULDER
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 15 19 12 6 4 14 25 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS WAS
BEGINNING AT 02.12/1610 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 2 - 4.12.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 9 - 14.12.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS ACTIVE 30.11-1.12 ANDd 5-6.12. THE MI-
NOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 29, dur. = 15 h.) It WAS NOTED ONLY AC-
CORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER. THE SECOND, ALREADY TO DATA OF
IZMIRAN, THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 39, dur. = 12 h.) IT WAS
OCCURENCED IN THE SECOND HALF 1.12 (9-hour G0-SUBSTORM ACCORDING TO
THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA). ACCORDING TO THE CENTER In BOULDER 5.11
THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM is NOTED (G0, Ams=25, dur. = 15 h.), 6-hour
G0-SUBSTORM TO IZMIRAN DATA. AND, AT LAST, ON DECEMBER, 6 THE MINOR
MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=~25, dur.=>27 h., continued) WAS ODSERVED TO
THE CENTER IN BOULDER AND (G1, Ams=31, dur.= 15 h.) ON IZMIRAN DATA.
IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED ACTIVE 7-8.12, WHEN
THE EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAMS OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM THE
CORONAL HOLE OF POSITIVE POLARITY. PROBABILITY OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM
~60%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru