Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20151102.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Nov 2 15:18:04 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:51:56 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON OCTOBER 2015 HAS MADE
Woct. = 37.1 (old), 61.7 (new)
THAT GIVES FOR 75 MONTHS (2015, APRIL) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE
OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*apr. = 50.0 - old; 61.7 - new;
W*march = 49.3 - old; 82.7 - new;

- On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal-
culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the
minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA.
Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system,
if it remains.

THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2)
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM-IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4)
THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020;

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2015,
OCTOBER ACCORDING DATA OF 79 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:

1.. 89 6.. 25 11.. 31 16.. 54 21.. 88 26.. 74 31.. 83
2.. 59 7.. 32 12.. 52 17.. 74 22..104M 27.. 67
3.. 50 8.. 36 13.. 62 18.. 72 23.. 90 28.. 79
4.. 21 9.. 26 14.. 54 19.. 91 24.. 77 29.. 91
5.. 18 10.. 12m 15.. 51 20.. 95 25.. 67 30.. 88

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
2015, OCTOBER
Fsep. = 104.1

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2015, OCTOBER
Ap sep. = 13.8
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 26.10 - 01.11.2015,
Forecast on 02 - 09.11.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2169 2170 (04,57.10; 31,87.11.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL.
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) WAS W = 49+7/-11 (Wn=78+12/-18). ON
THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK HAVE BEEN OBSERVED 6 - 4 SMALL, SUNSPOT
GROUPS, ONE BIG SIZE, AR12443 (N05L316, Sp=670 mvh), WERE CONSTANT-
LY OBSERVED.

THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON
THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE
OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE
NEXT WEEK IS W = 030+10/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS, EXCEPT OCTOBER 31.10
WHEN IT BECAME MIDDLE. THERE WERE TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OC-
CURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND
STEREO CORONOGRAPHS >36 CMEs, TWO OF TYPE II HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
31.10 1748 1752 1808 N06E51L316 M1.0/SF 2.1E-03 12443

DSF to te координаты l в град. Fl AО CME
28.10 ~1200 N20E20L023
28.10 >0951 >2345 N38E50L353 18
28.10 >1425 A0833 N42E69L344 16
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS.
FLARES OF THE HIGH MIDDLE AND BIG CLASS ARE POSSIBLE ONLY IN CASE OF
EMERGENCE OF THE NEW, SIGNIFICANT MAGNETIC FLUX. SO FAR THE MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION OF AR12443 PURELY BIPOLAR AND A LARGE NUMBER OF CLASS
"C" FLARES IS CONNECTED WITH MAGNETIC FLUXES OF SMALL POWER.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH + N85L014 N70L289 N35L034 N45L046 01.11 3 SDO, SOHO...
CH + N12L359 S10L349 S27L009 N08L016 2-3.11 3 SDO, SOHO...
On the last rotation these CH were one.
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory.
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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285.10/0730 - 1.11/19 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTER-
PLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS
SECTOR BOUNDARY 11.11.

OCTOBER 26 27 28 29 30 31 01 NOVEMBER
Wus 072 078 071 101 088 073 088
F10.7 106 110 112 113 121 119 124
Хbcg В3.6 В7.9 B6.6 B6.4 С1.1 B8.3 B6.6 GOES
Sp 250 290 190 520 620 670 730 msh
N 1 1 1 2
IMF + + +/- - - - -/+ АСЕ
е>2 2.1Е+6 8.2Е+6 1.4Е+7 5.6Е+6 1.4+6 5.6E+6 6.5E+5 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 2 5 2 4 10 8 10 nT BOULDER
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc - - 4 5 - - 10 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GINNING AT 20.10/1425 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 20.10 ONLY.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET,
EXCEPT NOVEMBER 2 - 4 WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF
THE SOLAR WIND FROM NEAR EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE OF POSITIVE POLARITY
ON WHICH DISTURBANCES FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCTOBER 28, WILL
BE IMPOSED. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM (TO MODERATED) NOT LESS
THAN 60%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru