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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 12 - 18.10.2015,
Forecast on 19 - 26.10.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2169 (04,57.10.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL.
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) WAS W = 38+11/-9 (Wn=62+17/-14). ON
THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK HAVE BEEN OBSERVED 4-5 SMALL, QUITE SUNSPOT
GROUPS.

THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON
THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE
OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE
NEXT WEEK IS W = 040+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL AT 15 - 17.10 AND THE LOW -
IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURREN-
CES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO
CORONOGRAPHS >24 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
15.10 2327 2331 >2337 S11E50L162 M1.1/SF 5.5E-03 12434
16.10 0611 0616 >0623 S11E46L162 M1.1/SF 3.6E-03 12434
17.10 2009 2023 >2028 S19E79L122 M1.1/ 6.0E-03 12435
17.10 2035 2042 >2046 S19E79L122 M1.5/ 5.8E-03 12435

DSF to te координаты l в град. Fl AО CME
14.10 >0015 >1336 S31E09L219 6 12432
14.10 1743 1928 S37W39L267 15
17.10 >0952 >2239 N51E57L131 7
------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH + N80L278 N38L233 N05L243 N38L213 10-15.10 4 G1 SDO, SOHO...
CH - N15L180 N10L168 N00L183 N04L187 21.10 3 SDO, SOHO...
CH - N20L152 N19L151 N12L157 N15L167 22.10 3 SDO, SOHO...
On the last rotation the last two CH were one.
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory.
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

15.10/07 - 18.10/1530 UT ON THE EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTER-
PLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH HAS
TO PASS 20.10.

OCTOBER 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 OCTOBER
Wus 051 058 056 049 068 083 081
F10.7 089 096 101 107 109 117 123
Хbcg В2.6 В2.8 B2.9 B3.5 B4.6 B7.1 B5.1 GOES
Sp 100 120 110 100 200 400 530 msh
N 1 1 1 1 1 1
IMF + + + +/- - - -/+ АСЕ
е>2 6.26Е+8 2.4Е+8 2.7Е+8 2.7Е+8 7.9+7 1.8E+8 1.7E+7 GOES
Ie>2 34918 10091 7388 8141 2472 10702 730 pfu GOES
Ap 26 23 27 11 7 12 21 nT BOULDER
Dst -40 -34 -43 -31 -23 -14 -55 nT KIOTO
Amsc 20 19 20 12 8 13 18 nT IZMIRAN
-----------------------------------------------------------------
е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GINNING AT 08.10/0935 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 8 - 19.10.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 12 - 18.10.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION ALREADY BEEN OCTOBER 12-13 IN A MINOR MAGNETIC
STORM (G1, Ams= 29, dur.= 27 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER
DATA. ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA, IT WAS 9 hour SUBSTORM INTENSITY (G1).
WITHIN 5 hours 13-14.10, START THE NEXT MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams
= 33, dur.= 21 h.) According to Boulder DATA and (G0, Ams = 27, dur.=
18 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA. RESPONSIBILITY FOR THESE GEOMAGNETIC
DISTURBANCE STEEL SOLAR WIND HIGH STREAM FROM A VERY LARGE CORONAL HO-
LE OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND DISTURBANCES FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTI-
ONS 7 - 9.10. 18.10 THE 9-hour SUBSTORM G1 YAVE BEEN OBSERVED. IN THE
REMAINING DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED ACTIVE 21-22.10 WHEN
THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM NORTHERN
CORONAL HOLES. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM LESS THAN 10%.


HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru