Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20150831.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Aug 31 11:39:18 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:51:29 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: п п п р п р п р п р п р п р п

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 24 - 30.08.2015,
Forecast on 31.08 - 07.09.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2167 (07,30.09.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ALL DAYS.
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (new) WAS W = 52+17/-8 (W old= 32+11/-5) ON THE VI-
SIBLE SOLAR DISK 2-3 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS BIG (AR12403, S12
E64L193, Sp=1190 msh, M/12) - came to a visible disk of the
Sun 16.08 small sunspot group. Emergence of a new magnetic flux 19 - 20.08
increased the area of sunspots to the average sizes and in 42 hours 21-22.
08 in it there were 6 flares of middle class. After new emergence of a mag-
netic flux on August 23 - 24 the area of sunspot group grew to Sp = 950 msh
that gave the chance to be carried out to large flare of M5.6/1B. Further
emergence of this flux brought the area of sunspot group to the maximum Sp
= 1190 msh and in 48 hours 27 - 28.08 to make 3 flares of middle class. On
August, 30 gradually fading, but remaining big, the sunspot group left for
the western limb. Distinctive feature of these flares - very narrow corners
of distribution of CME (~ 40 deg.).

THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON
THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE
RELATIVE W IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL 24.08, THE MIDDLE - AT 27-28.08 AND
THE LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE 10 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS,
>23 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
24.08 0726 0733 0754 S15W04L193 M5.6/1B 1.1E-02 12403 CME
24.08 1740 1746 1749 S14W04L193 M1.0/ 2.7E-03 12403
27.08 0448 0544 0701 S14W45L193 M2.9/1N 4.2E-02 12403
28.08 1844 1903 1924 S13W70L193 1N/M2.1 4.7E-03 12403
28.08 1304 1316 >1323 S14W65L193 M2.2/1F 1.6E-02 12403
30.08 0201 0330 0423 S17W80L193 M1.4/ 7.1E-02 12403

DSF to te координаты l в град. Fl AО CME
24.08 >1645 <0641 N38E25L150 24
24.08 >2338 <1544 S09E03L172 12
25.08 1154 1428 S14W08L154 8
25.08 >1641 <0508 N36W04L158 6
26.08 >0950 <2315 S10W49L198 12 12403
26.08 >0950 <2315 S01W36L185 9
26.08 >1640 <0507 N28W35L184 7
29.08 0944 <2327 N14E19L091 23
29.08 >0944 <2327 S31E29L080 9 12405
29.08 1803 2054 S10E24L185 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH + N01L223 S13L217 S15L220 S05L233 23.08 2 SDO, SOHO...
CH - S16L150 S35L123 S45L130 S22L162 29.08 >12 G0 SDO, SOHO...
CH + N10L099 N02L089 S05L090 N02L104 02.09 9 G1 SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory.
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 27.08/0630 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH HAS TO PASS
02.09.

AUGUST 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 AUGUST
Wus 071 061 045 046 052 050 050
F10.7 128 121 126 110 109 100 092
Хbcg B6.2 B4.9 B6.5 B4.8 B5.7 B4.5 B3.5 GOES
Sp 950 1190 1110 900 850 550 130 msh
N 1 1 1
IMF + + + +/- - - - АСЕ
е>2 2.3Е+8 8.6Е+8 9.5Е+7 2.2Е+8 3.4E+8 1.8E+8 6.5E+7 GOES
Ie>2 1700 1837 526 915 256 684 1552 pfu GOES
Ap 7 9 27 55 47 17 4 nT BOULDER
Dst -29 -28 -78 -100 -84 -46 -29 nT КИОТО
Amsc 6 10 30 37 26 13 6 nT ИЗМИРАН

е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 16.
08/1800 UT AND WAS OBSERVED ON AUGUST 23-25. SECOND INCREASE BEGAN 30.
08 AND OBSERVED ON AUGUST 30.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 31.08 - 1.09 AND 3 - 7.09.

ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN BOULDER VERY LONG MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2,
Ams=38, dur.= 69 h.), IT WAS REGISTERED 26 -29.08. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN
DATA IT IS DISTURBANCE REPRESENTED SUPERPOSITION OF THE MODERATE MAGNE-
TIC STORM (G2, Ams=44, dur.=24 h.) 26-27.08 AND TWO INTENSIVE SUBSTORMS:
2-hour (G2) AT THE INTERFACE BETWEEN 27-28.08 AND 9-hour (G1) AT THE END
OF THE DAYS 28.08. TOTAL IMPACT FROM FLARES 24.08, EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FI-
LAMENTS 25.08 AND PASSING OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM NEAR-
EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE OF NEGATIVE POLARITY BECAME THE SOURCE OF THIS
GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UN-
SETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION 1-3.08 WHEN THE EARTH PASSES
THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM NEAR EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE
OF POSITIVE POLARITY IS POSSIBLE AND TO THE EARTH DISTURBANCE FROM LARGE
EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENT 29.08 WILL COME. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC
STORM ABOUT 30%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE -
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru