Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20150824.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Aug 24 12:59:31 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:51:25 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п р п

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 17 - 23.08.2015,
Forecast on 24 - 31.08.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2167 (07,30.09.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL ON 17.08 AND THE
AVERAGE LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS, GRADUALLY INCREASING DUE TO GROWTH AND COMPLI-
CATION OF AR12403. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (new) WAS W=61+23/-30 (W old=41+11/-22).
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 3-2 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH AFTER 23.08 IS
BIG (AR12403, S12E64L193, Sp=760 msh, M/6) - came to a visible disk of the
Sun 16.08 small sunspot group. Emergence of a new magnetic flux 19 - 20.08
increased the area of sunspots to the average sizes and in 42 hours 21-22.
08 in it there were 6 flares of middle class. Distinctive feature of the-
se flares - very narrow corners of distribution of CME (~the 40 deg.), the-
refore they can't be geoeffectivity. The new magnetic flux 23-24.08 trans-
ferred sunspot group to category big and 25-27.08 it is possible to wait
for implementation of flares of an average and big class. As the AR passed
the solar central meridian on August 23, solar proton events are possible.

THE AVERAGE LEVELS OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE NEXT
WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE
W IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 040+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL AT 21-22.08, THE VERY LOW 17-19.08
AND THE LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OC-
CURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO
CORONOGRAPHS, >20 CMEs HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
21.08 0151 0218 0311 S16E39L191 1F/M1.2 2.2E-02 12403 CME
21.08 0934 0948 >1007 S17E26L191 M1.4/2B 1.8E-02 12403 CME
21.08 1910 2034 2214 S12E26L191 M1.1/1N 3.1E-02 12403
22.08 ~0622 0649 <0757 S15E20L191 1B/M1.2 1.0E-02 12403 CME
22.08 1317 1323 ~1517 S15E19L191 M2.2/1N 2.0E-03 12403
22.08 2119 2124 2250 S15E15L191 M3.5/1B 1.1E-02 12403 CME

DSF to te координаты l в град. Fl AО CME
19.08 1309 1700 S25E54L187 11
21.08 >0020 <1342 S35E39L163 7
22.08 >1657 <0503 S39E14L188 6
------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH + N80L268 N65L193 N22L260 N25L276 20.08 5 SDO, SOHO...
CH + N30L296 N28L282 N18L296 N29L301 18.08 1 SDO, SOHO...
CH + N01L223 S13L217 S15L220 S05L233 23.08 2 SDO, SOHO...
CH - S16L150 S35L123 S45L130 S22L162 29.08 >12 G0 SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory.
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 06.08/0630 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH HAS TO PASS
26.08.

AUGUST 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 AUGUST
Wus 020 044 036 068 078 072 092
F10.7 087 089 098 103 110 117 133
Хbcg B1.4 B1.4 B2.0 B4.2 B5.0 B9.6 B6.2 GOES
Sp 030 110 150 410 380 420 790 msh
N 2 1
IMF + + + + + + + АСЕ
е>2 2.3Е+8 8.6Е+8 9.5Е+7 2.2Е+8 3.4E+8 1.8E+8 6.2E+6 GOES
Ie>2 8750 21632 15877 8392 9116 6539 207 pfu GOES
Ap 27 9 22 13 5 9 29 nT BOULDER
Dst -48 -33 -54 -28 -18 -33 -42 nT KIOTO
Amsc 17 9 18 13 8 13 23 nT IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------
е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 16.
08/1800 UT AND WAS OBSERVED ON AUGUST 17 - 22.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 15 - 29.08.

ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN BOULDER DATA THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE
ACTIVE TO THE LEVEL OF MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams = 28, dur. = 27 h.)
16-17.08 And (G0, Ams=25, dlit. = 15 h.) 19.08. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA
THESE DAYS SIMPLY ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WITH SEPARATE SUBSTORMS
(G0) ARE NOTED. 23.07 BY DATA OF IZMIRAN IS REGISTERED THE MINOR MAGNETIC
STORM (G0, Ams=27, dur. = 15 h.), AND ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN BOULDER
IT WAS INTENSIVE (G2) 9-hour SUBSTORM. THESE DISTURBANCES ARE CONNECTED
WITH HIGH-SPEED STREAMS OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM CORONAL HOLES OF POSITIVE
POLARITY. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED IF
THERE ARE NO LARGE GEOEFFECTIVE FLARES IN AR12403.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE -
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru