Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20150803.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Aug 3 15:07:58 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:51:17 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: п п р р р р р р р р р р п п р п р п

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JULY 2015 HAS MADE
Wjuly = 66.4,
THAT GIVES FOR 72 MONTHS (2015, January DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24
CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*dec. = 56.0 (old system); 93.3 - new system
W*jan. = "63.9"c (89.8 - http://www.sidc.be/silso/newdataset)

- On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal-
culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.683) to the
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the
minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA.
Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system,
if it remains.
Preliminary table of reliable solar cycles in new system look down.

THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2)
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM-IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4)
THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020;

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2015,
JULY ACCORDING DATA OF 78 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:

1.. 26 6..111 11.. 99 16.. 71 21.. 61 26.. 23
2.. 46 7..127М 12..101 17.. 83 22.. 58 27.. 22м
3.. 50 8..114 13.. 99 18.. 80 23.. 47 28.. 34
4.. 85 9.. 97 14.. 92 19.. 70 24.. 36 29.. 41
5.. 94 10.. 96 15.. 54 20.. 63 25.. 28 30.. 42

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
2015, JULY
Fjuly = 107.0

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2015, JULY
Ap july = 8.8
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 27.07 - 03.08.2015,
Forecast on 03 - 10.08.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2166 (14,84.07.2015)


SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED,
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM (new) WAS Wold=39+11/-8. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 3-5 SMALL SUN-
SPOT GROUPS.

THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE NEXT
WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 040+
20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL AT ALL PERIOD THERE WAS ONE SO-
LAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE
DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS, >8 CMEs.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
DSF to te координаты l в град. Fl AО CME
28.07 >0117 >1257 S40E19L156 5
28.07 >1705 <0436 N24W24199 9
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH - N58L179 N40L161 N30L174 N45L208 31.07 2 G1 SDO, SOHO...
CH + S15L157 S40L140 S45L141 S25L164 01.08 >11 G1 SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory.
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 30.07/1230 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH HAS TO PASS
06.08.

JULY 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 JULY
Wus 039 037 035 027 054 041 038
F10.7 093 091 089 089 092 094 097
Хbcg B2.2 B1.7 B1.5 B1.7 B2.2 B2.2 B2.3 GOES
Sp 160 150 090 040 070 130 190 msh
N 2
IMF + + + + + + + АСЕ
е>2 8.2Е+7 3.3Е+6 2.9Е+6 1.5Е+6 6.2E+6 3.1E+7 3.5E+7 GOES
Ie>2 6019 249 176 993 1109 pfu GOES
Ap 5 12 7 22 7 11 7 nT BOULDER
Dst нT KIOTO
Amsc 7 10 13 21 11 12 10 нT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT WAS NOT OB-
SERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES ARE EXPECTED UN-
SETTLED AND QUITE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE -
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru


Preliminary TABLE of reliable solar cycles in new system:

№ То cycle W*min Тmax. Тmin. W*max. Durat. Incr. Decr.
Y, M Y, M Y, M Y Y Y
8 1833 XI(IX) 12.2 1837 III 1843 VI 244.9 9.67 3.33 6.33
9 1843 VII 17.6 1848 II 1855 XI 219.9 12.42 4.58 7.83
10 1855 XII 6.0 1860 II 1867 II 186.2 11.42 4.17 7.25
11 1867 III 9.9 1870VIII 1878 XI 234.0 11.92 3.42 8.50
12 1878 XII 3.7 1883 XII 1890 II 124.4 11.33 5.0 6.33
13 1890 III 8.3 1894 I 1901 XII 146.5 12.08 3.83 8.25
14 1902 I 4.5 1906 II 1913 VII 107.1 11.67 4.08 7.59
15 1913 VIII 2.5 1917VIII 1923 VII 175.7 10.08 4.0 6.08
16 1923 VIII 9.4 1928 IV 1933 VIII 130.2 10.25 4.67 5.58
17 1933 IX 5.8 1937 IV 1944 I 198.6 10.5 3.58 6.92
18 1944 II 12.9 1947 V 1954 III 218.7 10.25 3.25 7.00
19 1954 IV 5.1 1958 III 1964 IX 285.0 10.42 3.92 6.50
20 1964 X 14.3 1968 XI 1976 VI 156.6 11.83 4.08 7.75
21 1976 III(VI) 17.8 1979 XII 1986 VIII 232.9 10.41 3.25 7.16
22 1986 IX 13.5 1989 IX(VII)1996 IV 212.5 9.58 3.09 6.49
23 1996 V 11.2 2000 IV 2008 XI 175.2 12.7 3.83 8.87
24 2008 XII 2.2 2014 IV 2021 IV-IX 116.4 12 5.5 7
Month in bracket - in old system. Solar cycle 24th began at December 2008.