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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 04 - 12.07.2015,
Forecast on 13 - 20.07.2015,
Carrington Rotations 2165, 2166 (17,64.06; 14,84.07.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL, BUT AL-
READY THE 4th SOLAR ROTATIONS RECURRENTLY REACHES THE GREATEST VALUES.
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (NEW) WAS W = 077+15/-36. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR
DISK 9-6 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE BIG SIZE (8 - 9.07), WERE CONSTANTLY OB-
SERVED.
AR12381 (N06L073, Sp max=550 msh, M/2)-the bipolar sunspot group stret-
ched on longitude appeared on east limb 2.07 in a quiet state, however
at the end of the days 5.07 in a middle part there was a new quickly
emerging magnetic flux which already in the first half of the next days
led to occurred of flare of X-ray class M1, and in 10 hours to flare 2N/
M1.7. After that, emerge speed sharply fell, and energy this flux it
began to be spent for formation small spots and pores -the area of sun-
spot group became slow degradation.

AVERAGE LOW LEVELS OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED ON THE
NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK
IS W = 040+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ON JULY, 06 AND AT THE LOW LE-
VEL IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE TEN SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURREN-
CES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CO-
RONOGRAPHS, >33 CMEs, FOUR WERE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE (angular width
90 - 180 degrees) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
06.07 0824 0844 0931 N17E42L073 M1.0/SN 1.2E-02 12381
06.07 1957 2040 2144 N18E36L073 2N/M1.7 1.2E-02 12381

DSF to te координаты l в град. Fl AО CME
04.07 >0022 <1541 S10W34L170 4
04.07 >0926 <2336 N48E01L135 20
04.07 1847 <2210 N55W26L172 33
04.07 2000 2141 N30W01L137 9
07.07 >0021 <1240 N25E37L059 13
07.07 >0021 <1240 S43W45L141 15
08.07 0706 0831 N11W18L101 8
08.07 >0931 2332 N33E19L064 5
08.07 >2112 <2227 S39W12L095 20
08.07 >2112 <2227 S48E28L055 26
------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH - S10L172 S38L144 S40L146 S23L180 4-05.07 >10 G1 SDO, SOHO...
CH + N52L133 N45L130 N30L141 N35L151 6.07 1 SDO, SOHO...
CH + N10L101 N02L096 S10L101 N05L108 9-10.07 7 G1 SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory.
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 10.07/22 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH HAS TO PASS
30.07.

JUNE 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 JUNE
Wus 111 131 109 118 131 120 124 091 059
F10.7 117 125 133 133 129 122 129 120 116
Хbcg B3.2 B4.4 B5.8 B5.2 B3.9 B3.5 B4.1 В3.9 B3.8 GOES
Sp 390 420 630 700 840 820 710 730 750 msh
N 2 1 1 1 1 1
IMF - - - - - - -/+ + + АСЕ
е>2 5.8Е+7 7.5Е+5 1.4Е+7 2.7Е+7 4.3E+7 5.5E+7 9.2E+7 7.1Е+5 2.0E-7 GOES
Ie>2 4505 440 576 954 1226 2748 1211 654 pfu
Ap 19 25 10 5 5 6 9 24 12 nT
Dst -56 -69 -48 -25 -21 -21 -11 nT
Amsc 18 21 15 10 11 10 11 23 18 nT
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT BEGINNING AT
9.07/1355 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 9 - 11.07.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams= 56, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENT-
RE IN BOULDER, AND MINOR (G2, Ams= 30, dur.= 21 h.) BY DATA OF IZMIRAN IS
REGISTERED 4 - 5.07 AS A RESULT OF PASSING BY THE EARTH of the HIGH-SPEED
STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM BIG CORONAL HOLE of the SOLAR SOUTHERN HEMI-
SPHERE. BESIDES, PASSING BY THE EARTH OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SO-
LAR WIND FROM TRANSEQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE LED ON JULY 10-11 TO MINOR TO
THE MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams = 38, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN
BOULDER AND (G2, Ams=27, dur.= 18 h.). BY DATA OF IZMIRAN. IN OTHER DAYS
THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES ARE EX-
PECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE -
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru