Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20150704.en.txt Дата изменения: Sat Jul 4 18:43:24 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:51:08 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: saturn

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JUNE 2015 HAS MADE
Wjune = 68.3,
THAT GIVES FOR 71 MONTHS (2014, DECEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24
CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*dec. = "63.8" (93.3 - http://www.sidc.be/silso/newdataset)
- On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal-
culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.683) to the
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the
minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA.
Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system,
if it remains.

THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2)
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM-IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4)
THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020;

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2015,
JUNE ACCORDING DATA OF 78 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:

1.. 26 6..111 11.. 99 16.. 71 21.. 61 26.. 23
2.. 46 7..127М 12..101 17.. 83 22.. 58 27.. 22м
3.. 50 8..114 13.. 99 18.. 80 23.. 47 28.. 34
4.. 85 9.. 97 14.. 92 19.. 70 24.. 36 29.. 41
5.. 94 10.. 96 15.. 54 20.. 63 25.. 28 30.. 42

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
2015, JUNE
Fjune = 122.3

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2015, JUNE
Ap june = 12.8
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 29.06 - 03.07.2015,
Forecast on 04 - 12.07.2015,
Carrington Rotations 2165 (17,64.06.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED,
WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIO-
NAL SYSTEM WAS W=035+20/-13. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 3-6 SMALL SUN-
SPOT GROUPS.

AVERAGE LOW LEVELS OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED ON THE
NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK
IS W = 040+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ON JULY, 03 AND AT THE LOW LE-
VEL IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURREN-
CES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CO-
RONOGRAPHS, >10 CMEs, ONE "HALO" TYPE AND ONE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE
(angular width 90 - 180 degrees) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
03.07 1247 1251 1306 S15E68L092 M1.5/1N 2.5E-03 12378

DSF to te координаты l в град. Fl AО CME
29.06 >0112 >1444 N05E15L187 6
02.07 >1739 >0421 S23W44L206 13
03.06 0258 0358 S36W42L191 17
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH - S10L172 S38L144 S40L146 S23L180 04-05.07 >10 SDO, SOHO...
CH + N52L133 N45L130 N30L141 N35L151 6.07 1 SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory.
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 12.06/16 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. 3 - 4.07 THE SING OF SECTOR REPEATEDLY CHANGED. THE
FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH HAS TO PASS 05.07.

JUNE 29 30 01 02 03 JUNE
Wus 036 041 049 073 091
F10.7 097 101 109 114 112
Хbcg B4.1 B3.2 B3.6 B4.0 B3.7 GOES
Sp 180 270 380 340 340 msh
N 1 1 2 1
IMF -/+ + + + +/- АСЕ
е>2 3.7Е+8 4.6Е+8 2.1Е+8 2.9Е+8 3.3E+8 GOES
Ie>2 7557 9667 5953 5446 5791 pfu GOES
Ap 6 7 5 2 2 nT
Dst nT КIОТО
Amsc 7 8 8 4 5 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

TWO PROTON EVENT (S0) WAS OCCURRENCE FROM THE BACKSIDE FLARE EVENTS
IN AR12371 (СМЕ 2015/07/01 14:36/0637 км/с/360/127 - САСТus system)
http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html:
Pr (E>10 MeV): to-01.07/17 UT; max-5 pfu, 2.07/0030, to-2.07/20.

THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT BEGINNING AT
26.06/1005 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 29.06 - 03.07.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 04 - 10.07.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES ARE EX-
PECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HOWEVER, RISING DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE AT THE
END OF THE DAY 4 AND 5.07 WHEN THE EARTH PASSING HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM
THE SOLAR CORONAL HOLES OF SOLAR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. PROBABILITY OF MAG-
NETIC STORM NO MORE THAN 10%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE -
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru