Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20150622.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Jun 22 15:05:56 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:51:00 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 15 - 21.06.2015,
Forecast on 22 - 29.06.2015,
Carrington Rotations 2164, 2165 (21,44.05; 17,64.06.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMA-
TED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER-
NATIONAL SYSTEM WAS W= 052+12/-8. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 6 - 2 SUN-
SPOT GROUPS, ONE MIDDLE AND ONE BIG SIZES, WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED.

AR12371 (N11L303, Sp max = 1180 мдп, M/3) - appearance 14.06 on east
limb quite created big sunspot group with a complex magnetic field in
the following sunspot where separate flares of a middle X-ray class
are occurrences. The emergences of slow new magnetic fluxes of evolu-
tionary type which are conducting to growth of sunspots, but not cau-
sing growth of flare activity are constantly observed. However in
this sunspot group, there is a probability of significant NMF emergen-
ce in the following sunspot. In this case large flares are possible.

AVERAGE LEVELS OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED ON THE
NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK
IS W = 040+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ON JUNE, 18, 20 AND 21.06, AT
THE LOW LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE FOUR SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION
OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND
STEREO CORONOGRAPHS, >37 CMEs, THREE "HALO" TYPE AND ONE "PARTIAL HA-
LO" TYPE (angular width 90 - 180 degrees) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
18.06 0033 0127 >0155 S16W81L077 M1.2/ 4.0E-02 12365
18.06 1629 1736 1905 N15E50L303 1N/M3.0 8.7E-02 12371 IV/2 CME
20.06 0628 0648 ~0734 N13E25L303 M1.0/1F 1.8E-02 12371
21.06 0102 0142 0434 N12E13L303 M2.0/1N 3.2E-02 12371 CME
0206 0236 0434 N12E13L303 1N/M2.6 12371 CME
21.06 <0924 0944 1031 S21W57L005 2B/M3.8 1.6E-02 12367 CME
21.06 1810 1820 1828 S18W65L005 M1.1/ 7.9E-03 12367

DSF to te координаты l в град. Fl AО CME
17.06 >0116 <1226 N39W23L027 7
17.06 1931 2002 N08E52L312 8 12371
18.06 >1731 <0434 N14E35L312 7 12371
19.06 >2347 <1248 S04E25L309 9
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS WITH A
SMALL PROBABILITY TO REACH LARGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH + N13L324 S19L304 S20L309 S10L327 14.06 5 G0 SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory.
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 12.06/16 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH HAS TO PASS
05.07.

JUNE 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 JUNE
Wus 107 087 094 082 074 089 079
F10.7 135 136 136 151 137 135 136
Хbcg B7.4 B8.6 B6.2 B9.4 B6.8 B5.7 - GOES
Sp 520 680 940 1120 1320 1410 1410 msh
N 1
IMF + + + + + + + АСЕ
е>2 6.4Е+7 7.3Е+7 4.6Е+7 4.9Е+7 5.6E+7 7.9E+7 - GOES
Ie>2 3307 3261 2803 1198 1057 1342 1877 pfu GOES
Ap 14 11 14 7 6 2 8 nT
Dst nT КIОТО
Amsc 14 11 14 13 8 9 12 nT IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------
No GOES data on X-ray background and solar particles.
е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

TWO SMALL PROTON EVENTS WERE CARRIED OUT FROM THE WESTERN FLARE EVENTS IN
AR12367::
Pr (E>10 MeV): to - 18.06/04 UT; max - 16 pfu, 18.06/1445 UT, te-20.06/15.
Pr (E>10 MeV): to-21.06/05 UT; preliminary max -110 pfu, 22.06/10, in cont.

THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT BEGINNING AT
15.07/1320 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 15 - 21.06.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 22 - 25.06.

THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED. HOWEVER 21.06/1645 UT
ALL GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES NOTED ARRIVAL TO THE EARTH OF THE INTERPLA-
NETARY SHOCK WAVE FROM FLARE EVENTS ON JUNE 18.

NEXT WEEK THE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES ON JUNE 22
-24 IS EXPECTED WITH POSSIBLE GROWTH TO THE MAGNETIC STORM LEVEL, AND WITH
PROBABILITY OF 60% 23-24.06 IS POSSIBLE MAJOR (UP TO SEVERAL) THE MAGNETIC
STORM, BECAUSE OF THREE CONSECUTIVE CME INTERACTION FROM FLARE EVENTS ON
JUNE 21. IN OTHER DAYS TO 27 JUNE THE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION POSSIBLE
BECAUSE FLARE ACTIVITY OF AR12371 CAN REMAIN.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE -
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru