Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20150629.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Jun 29 13:28:20 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:51:05 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: ngc 281

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 22 - 28.06.2015,
Forecast on 29.06 - 05.07.2015,
Carrington Rotations 2165 (17,64.06.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON AVERAGE, AND 26 -27.06 LOW
LEVELS. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS W=052+12/-8. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK
3 - 1 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE BIG SIZES, WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED:
AR12371 (N11L303, Sp max= 1180 msh, M/5) - appearance on east limb 14.
06 quite created by big sunspot group with a complex magnetic field in
the following spot where flares of an average and big point were occur
rences. As a result of emergence of significant new magnetic fluxes in
the following spot 22 and 25.06 there were two large solar flares.

AVERAGE LOW LEVELS OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED ON THE
NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK
IS W = 040+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL ON JUNE, 22 AND 25.06, AT THE LOW
LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURREN-
CES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STEREO CO-
RONOGRAPHS, >20 CMEs, TWO "HALO" TYPE AND ONE "PARTIAL HALO" TYPE (an-
gular width 90 - 180 degrees) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
22.06 1723 1823 2053 N12W08L301 2B/M6.5 1.9E-01 2371 II/1 CME
25.06 0802 0814 0905 N09W42L301 M7.9/3B 1.7E-01 2371 II/1 IV/1 CME

DSF to te координаты l в град. Fl AО CME
22.06 0232 0310 N11W11L301 6 C3.2 2371
22.06 >1754 <0412 N31W32L326 6
23.06 >1742 <0540 S27E21L260 10
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.
HOWEVER, SO FAR THERE IS NO OPPORTUNITY TO ESTIMATE OPPORTUNITIES NEW,
APPEARING ON EAST LIMB A SUNSPOT GROUP, SO FAR THE QUIET.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH + N13L324 S19L304 S20L309 S10L327 24.06 5 G0 SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory.
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 12.06/16 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. 23 - 28.06 THE SING OF SECTOR REPEATEDLY CHANGED. THE
FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH HAS TO PASS 05.07.

JUNE 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 JUNE
Wus 077 061 039 033 028 025 039
F10.7 135 116 110 102 101 097 097
Хbcg B6.3 B5.0 B4.4 B4.2 B3.5 B3.3 В4.1 GOES
Sp 1320 1070 740 580 550 430 220 msh
N 1
IMF + +/- -/+ +/- +/- + + АСЕ
е>2 8.0Е+7 2.7Е+7 6.5Е+8 7.1Е+7 1.1E+8 2.7E+8 - GOES
Ie>2 4102 26376 12360 2395 5777 6994 pfu GOES
Ap 53 82 16 34 10 9 12 nT
Dst nT КIОТО
Amsc 50 44 18 28 9 10 15 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

TWO PROTON EVENTS (S3) AND (S2) WERE OCCURRENCE FROM THE WESTERN FLARE
EVENTS IN AR12367::
Pr (E>10 MeV): to-21.06/05 UT; max-1070 pfu, 22.06/1900, to-25.06/10.
Pr (E>10 MeV): to-25.06/0930 UT; max-22 pfu, 27.06/0300, te->29.06.

THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT BEGINNING AT
15/1320, 24.07/0935 AND 26.06/1005 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 22 - 28.06.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 29 - 30.06.

MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM (G4, Ams= 82, dur. = 33 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CEN-
TRE IN BOULDER AND (G4, Ams = 63, dur.= 33 h.) BY DATA IZMIRAN WAS RE-
GISTERED 22 - 23.06 FROM DOUBLE FLARE OF CLASS 1N/M2.0 AND M2.7 21.06,
WHICH THREE CORONAL MASS EJECTION. THEIR INTERACTION IN INTERPLANETARY
SPACE LED TO STRENGTHENING OF INFLUENCE ON EARTH MAGNETOSPHERE. THE SE-
COND MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=43, dur.=18 h.) ACCORDING TO THE
CENTRE IN BOULDER AND (G1, Ams=42, dur.= 12 h.) BY DATA IZMIRAN IS MAR-
KED OUT 25.06 FROM FLARE OF CLASS M6.5/2B 22.06. 24.06 GEOMAGNETIC CON-
DITIONS WAS ACTIVE, AND OTHER DAYS - QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES ARE EX-
PECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE -
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru