Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20150601.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Jun 1 17:23:17 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:50:55 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: п п п п

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MAY 2015 HAS MADE
Wmay = 58.8,
THAT GIVES FOR 69 MONTHS (2014, OCTOBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24
CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*sep. = 65.4
THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8;
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;
THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020;

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2015,
MAY ACCORDING DATA OF 78 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:

1.. 13 6.. 82 11..109 16.. 69 21.. 33 26.. 35 31.. 17
2.. 24 7.. 95 12..112 17.. 59 22.. 48 27.. 9
3.. 28 8..101 13..113М 18.. 66 23.. 48 28.. 8m
4.. 68 9.. 92 14..109 19.. 51 24.. 52 29.. 22
5.. 68 10..107 15.. 83 20.. 39 25.. 45 30.. 19

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
2015, MAY
Fmay = 128.8

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2015, APRIL
Ap may = 10.3
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 25 - 31.05.2015,
Forecast on 01 - 07.06.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2164 (21,44.05.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE AND LOW LEVEL.
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=021+19/-07. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK
CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 4 - 2 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS, ALL QUITE.

NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FORMING OF ACTIVITY,
IS EXPECTED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPEC-
TED W = 030+10/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL ONLY MAY, 27 AND THE VERY LOW IN
OTHER DAYS. ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED >22 CME FROM WHICH
ONE WAS THE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE (angular width 90 - 180 degrees).

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
31.05 >0911 <2334 N10Е64L202 7 12357
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH + N02L321 S15L308 S17L312 S10L328 27.05 4 G1 SDO, SOHO...
CH + N55L259 N46L255 N08L320 N05L322 28.05 2 G1 SDO, SOHO...
The last two, perhaps, make one enormous CH.
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory.
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 28.05/05 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. 27 - 28.05 THE SIGN OF SECTOR REPEATDLY CHANGE. THE
FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY ± EARTH HAS TO PASS 07.06.

MAY 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 MAY
Wus 066 048 024 011 023 027 047
F10.7 097 095 095 093 092 095 094
Хbcg B1.7 B2.2 B2.0 B1.6 B1.5 B1.8 B2.0 GOES
Sp 180 100 040 060 070 090 140 msh
N 1 1
IMF + + + + + ± - АСЕ
е>2 1.7Е+6 7.8Е+5 1.6Е+5 2.0Е+5 1.3E+5 2.2E+5 6.6Е+5 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 3 5 5 6 7 5 5 nT
Dst nT КIОТО
Amsc 9 12 12 11 11 9 11 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT WAS NOT OB-
SERVED.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS.

NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE -
SIDC, BRUSSEL, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru