Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20150608.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Jun 8 11:46:28 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:50:56 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: earth orbit

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 01 - 07.06.2015,
Forecast on 08 - 15.06.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2164 (21,44.05.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE AND LOW LEVEL.
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=051+31/-18. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK
CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 3 - 9 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS, ALL QUITE.

NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE AND HIGH LEVELS OF SUNSPOT-FORMING OF ACTIVITY,
IS EXPECTED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPEC-
TED W = 040+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS BESIDES JUNE, 1 -THE VERY
LOW. THREE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY
DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED > 27 CME FROM WHICH
ONE WAS THE "PARTIAL HALO III" TYPE (angular width 180-270 degrees) AND
TWO - THE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE (angular width 90 - 180 degrees).

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
01.06 >1724 <0420 S21W57L245 28
02.06 2119 2303 S23E03L200 11
05.06 1101 1147 S28W67L216 9
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND, A SMALL PROBABILI-
TY, THE AVERAGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH + S06L155 S35L144 S37L147 S20L177 08.06 >9 G1 SDO, SOHO...
The last two, perhaps, make one enormous CH.
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory.
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 07.06/02 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH HAS TO PASS
13.06.

JUNE 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 JUNE
Wus 038 039 055 080 105 129 136
F10.7 100 101 109 118 126 092 137
Хbcg B2.2 B2.4 B3.1 B4.4 B4.1 B4.0 B4.4 GOES
Sp 100 110 140 340 420 580 560 msh
N 1 1 2 1 2
IMF + + + + + + +/- АСЕ
е>2 5.2Е+5 5.7Е+5 4.8Е+5 2.0Е+5 5.7E+5 5.0E+5 5.3Е+4 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 8 3 4 3 6 4 6 nT
Dst nT КIОТО
Amsc 11 11 10 8 8 9 12 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT WAS NOT OB-
SERVED.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS.

NEXT WEEK 8-9 JUNE EXPECTED GROWTH RECURRENT GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE
WHEN THE EARTH BE HELD HIGH SOLAR WIND FROM LARGE CORONAL HOLE SOLAR
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. PROBABILITY MAGNETIC STORM AT LEAST 20%. IN THE RE-
MAINING DAYS OF THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE -
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru