Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20150525.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon May 25 11:59:11 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:50:53 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: m 106

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 18 - 24.05.2015,
Forecast on 25 - 31.05.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2163, 2164 (24,21.04; 21,44.05.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. ES-
TIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 042+08/-20. ON THE VISIBLE
SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 7 - 3 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING OF ACTIVITY, AND
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED, IT IS POSSIBLE ON LOW. ES-
TIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPEC-
TED W = 030+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL. 7 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS
OCCURRENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND
STEREO WERE OBSERVED >19 CME FROM WHICH ONE WAS THE "HALO" TYPE.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
18.05 >0828 <1248 N37W47L077 8
18.05 >0855 >2330 S25E04l079 8
18.05 >1637 <0700 N20W54L084 8 12342
19.05 2023 2101 S26E25L352 4 12349
20.05 >1605 <1028 S01E09L355 6
22.05 1522 1628 N05W74L059 6
23.05 >0651 2343 S04W24l358 6
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH + N60L020 N58L355 N35L018 N55L030 20.05 2 G1 SDO, SOHO...
CH + N02L321 S15L308 S17L312 S10L328 27.05 4 G1 SDO, SOHO...
CH + N55L259 N46L255 N08L320 N05L322 28.05 2 G1 SDO, SOHO...
The last two, perhaps, make one enormous CH.
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory.
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 23.05/18 UT ON THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH HAS TO PASS
30.05.

MAY 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 MAY
Wus 083 084 061 036 081 069 074
F10.7 115 110 106 102 099 131 099
Хbcg B4.4 B3.4 B2.7 B2.0 B2.0 B1.9 B1.8 GOES
Sp 340 220 130 070 160 150 180 msh
N 2 1 2 1 1
IMF + + + + + +/- - АСЕ
е>2 1.4Е+8 2.0Е+6 5.4Е+6 7.8Е+6 9.2E+6 1.3E+7 1.4Е+6 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 14 19 7 3 3 3 4 nT
Dst nT КIОТО
Amsc 17 14 10 7 9 7 9 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT BEGAN 14.
05/0925 UT AND WAS OBSERVED ON MAY 18.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS.

NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE -
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru