Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20150511.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon May 11 15:33:36 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:50:49 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: п п п п п п п п п п п п п п п

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 04 - 10.05.2015,
Forecast on 11 - 18.05.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2163 (24,21.04.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL, GRADU-
ALLY INCREASING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE
VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS
MADE W = 071+11/-20. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSERVED
4 - 8 SUNSPOT GROUPS FROM WICH ONE WAS A BIG SIZE: AR12339 (N12L139,
Sp=900 мпд, X/1+M/3 5-6.05 (26 h.).

IN NEXT WEEK SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT AVERAGE
LEVELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EX-
PECTED W = 040+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL ON MAY 05, AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL
- 6.05 AND AT THE LOW -IN OTHER DAYS. 11 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OC-
CURRENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO
WERE OBSERVED >40 CME FROM WHICH ONE WAS THE "PARTIAL HALO III" TYPE
(angular width 180-270 deg.)AND THREE - "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE (angu-
lar width 90-180 deg.).

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
05.05 0942 0947 0951 N14E82L139 M1.9 5.4E-03 12339
05.05 1345 1353 >1356 N15E75L133 M1.2/SF 4.6E-03 12339
05.05 1419 1425 >1432 S16E17L194 M1.3/ 6.7E-03 12335
05.05 1706 1724 1750 S17E15L194 2N/M2.6 1.3E-02 12335
05.05 2205 2211 2215 N15E79L139 X2.7/ 9.3E-02 12339 II/2 CME
06.05 1145 1149 1151 N17E67L139 M1.9/ 3.2E-03 12339

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
04.05 >1703 <0441 N13E58L144 9
05.05 >0927 <2323 S15E32L156 24
05.05 >1604 <0605 S34E05L183 17
05.05 >2134 <1245 S35W12L200 12
06.05 >0905 <2333 S09W21L196 19
06.05 1449 1557 S15W12L187 17
09.05 0003 0048 N28E19L117 11
09.05 0028 0150 N41E41L095 19
09.05 1810 1839 N34E14L122 7 12339
09.05 1947 2129 N32E61L075 23
10.09 >0926 <2318 S49E01L121 14
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND, PERHAPS, AT THE AVE-
RAGE LEVEL. AR12339 IS IN THE STABLE STATE AND IF ISN'T (IT ISN'T EX-
PECTED YET) EMERGENCE OF THE NEW SIGNIFICANT MAGNETIC FLUX, BIG FLAR-
ES WON'T BE.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH - N07L234 N05L232 S05L236 S03L239 05.05 2 G1 SDO, SOHO...
СН - S18L146 S40L121 S43L126 S25L151 12.05 3(>10) G0 SDO, SOHO...
СН - S23L111 S20L069 S42L079 S21L113 14.05 3 G0 SDO, SOHO...
The second CH separated from the southern polar CH.
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory.
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 07.05/2130 UT ON 09.05/14 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE
INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD, THEN AGAIN IN "+". 06.05 THE SECTOR
SIGN REPEATEDLY CHANGED. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- EARTH
HAS TO PASS 11.05.

MAY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 MAY
Wus 085 099 110 131 134 136 134
F10.7 125 128 136 147 150 155 160
Хbcg B5.6 B8.4 B8.6 B7.0 B6.1 B6.1 B6.9 GOES
Sp 370 650 940 1080 1230 1060 1060 msh
N 1 2 1 2
IMF + + +/-/+ +/- - -/+ + АСЕ
е>2 8.9Е+6 5.2Е+6 1.6Е+6 1.3Е+6 1.1E+6 9.6E+5 1.6Е+5 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 6 5 27 5 6 7 11 nT
Dst -16 -29 -20 nT КIОТО
Amsc 12 10 32 10 7 11 15 nT IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------
е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT WAS NOT OB-
SERVED.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED AT 12 - 18 MAY.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE QUITE AND UNSETTLED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL DAYS EXCEPT MAY
6 WHEN BY DATA IZMIRAN WAS REGISTERED THE MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2,
Ams= 51, dur. = 12 h.). ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN BOuLDERE IT WAS THE
MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 27, dur.= 18 h.). ARRIVAL TO THE EARTH
OF DISTURBANCE FROM EJECTION OF SOLAR FILAMENT 2.05 WHICH CAME TO TIME
OF PASSING BY THE EARTH OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM SMALL NEAR EQUA-
TORIAL CORONAL HOLE BECAME THE SOURCE OF THIS EVENT.

NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE'S GROWTH IS POSSIBLE ON MAY 12 AND
14 WHEN THE EARTH PASSES HIGH-SPEED STREAMS OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM CO-
RONAL HOLES OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SUN. PROBABILITY OF THE
MAGNETIC STORM ~ 10%. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION IS EXPE-
CTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE -
SIDC, BRUSSEL, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru