Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20150406.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Apr 6 16:00:21 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:50:30 2016 Кодировка: Windows-1251 Поисковые слова: роберт годдард

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON MARCH 2015 HAS MADE
W mar.= 38.4,
THAT GIVES FOR 68 MONTHS (2014, SEPTEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24
CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*sep. = 70.9
THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8;
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;
THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020;

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2015,
MARCH ACCORDING DATA OF 76 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:

1.. 46 6.. 23 11.. 32 16.. 32 21.. 19 26.. 73 31.. 27
2.. 36 7.. 12m 12.. 41 17.. 28 22.. 56 27.. 71
3.. 30 8.. 20 13.. 53 18.. 29 23.. 69 28.. 54
4.. 26 9.. 17 14.. 40 19.. 35 24.. 76M 29.. 50
5.. 18 10.. 20 15.. 38 20.. 14 25.. 70 30.. 36

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
2015, MARCH
F mar.= 124.6

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2015, MARCH
Ap mar.= 15.5
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 30.03 - 05.04.2015,
Forecast on 06 - 13.04.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2162 (27,93.03.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ALL
DAYS EXCEPT APRIL, 3 WHEN LEVEL FELL TO THE LOW. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY
AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM WAS MADE W =032+09/-15. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CON-
STANTLY OBSERVED 4-2 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS AVERAGE SIZE.

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT AVERAGE TO LOW LE-
VELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EX-
PECTED W = 030+10/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVEL 2 -5.03 AND AT VERY LOW LEVEL IN OT-
HER DAYS. TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERI-
OD. ONE OF THEM WAS FOLLOWED BY SPOTLESS, LONG DURATION SOLAR FLARE
OF C3.8 X-RAY CLASS WAS OBSERVED 4 - 5.04 (CME "PARTIAL GALO II" TY-
PE OF 4/2358 UT, V=602 KM/S).BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO
WERE OBSERVED > 28 CME FROM WHICH THREE WERE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Пp J/m-2

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
23.03 2216 >0145 S27е20L234 23 C3.8 II/1 CME
http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/ssw/media/ssw/ssw_client/data/ssw_
service_150404_201342_47059/www/
05.04 >0233 <2331 S10W43L284 18
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE (IM-
PROBABLE) LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end Е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH - S35L352 S70L277 Ps S70L067 01.04 G1 SDO, SOHO...
уH + N49L270 N45L265 S15L315 S12L318 02.03 2 G1 SDO, SOHO...
уH - N05L236 S04L229 S06L231 S00L240 08.04 SDO, SOHO...
The last CH was formed on a visible disk of the Sun 3.04.
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 31.03/13 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO
PASS 10.04.

MARCH 30 31 01 02 03 04 05 APRIL
Wus 056 053 069 031 029 068 066
F10.7 1134 128 124 121 120 122 122
иbcg B6.6 B4.7 B3.9 B4.1 B4.1 B3.9 B4.8 GOES
Sp 490 350 520 280 070 130 230 msh
N 1 1 2
IMF - -/ + + + + + буе
Е>2 2.2е+6 9.0е+6 8.6е+6 3.3е+6 2.7E+6 9.0E+6 1.2е+7 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 5 8 8 11 13 11 10 nT
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 7 12 12 11 13 16 13 nT IZMIRAN
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Е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT MOSTLY QUITE AND UNSETTLED LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ON APRIL, 7-8 THE EDGE OF DISTURBANCE FROM SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION 4.
04 (CME, 2348 UT) WILL COME TO ENVIRONMENT AND IN THE SAME DAY THE
EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM NEAR
EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. THIS DAY GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE'S GROWTH IS
POSSIBLE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ABOUT 40%. IN OTHER DAYS
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE -
SIDC, BRUSSEL, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, MJSCJW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru