Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20150323.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Mar 23 13:41:55 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:50:27 2016 Кодировка: Windows-1251 Поисковые слова: п п р р р р р р р р р р р р п п

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 16 - 22.03.2015,
Forecast on 23 - 30.03.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2161 (27,93.03.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED ON THE AVERAGE LE-
VEL AND ONLY 20.03 - ON THE LOW LEVEL. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE
VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
WAS MADE W = 033+20/-17. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANT-
LY OBSERVED 4-2 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS AVERAGE SIZE.
AR12297- ITS FINAL EVOLUTIONARY FORMULA:
AR12297 (S17L196, CMP 13.03. 2014; Spmax = 420 msh);
XRI=6.26 - a flare index; X/1+M/17, from which 4 large flares;
PFER 1-(53 h.) 5-7.03 (M/4)-the 1st period of flare energy release;
PFER 2 - (72 h.) 9-12.03 (X/1+M/11) - the second PFER.

NEXT WEEK EXPECTED THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT ACTI-
VITY. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EX-
PECTED W = 030+10/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL ON 17-18 MARCH, AT THE LOW
LEVEL - 18 - 22.03. EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS WERE OBSERVED 16,
18 AND 22.03. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSER -
VED 20 CME FROM WHICH ONE WAS -"PARTIAL HALO III".

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Пp J/m-2
16.03 1039 1058 1151 S17W39L196 M1.6/2N 2.5E-02 12297
17.03 2249 2334 0045 S21W56L196 M1.0/2N 1.4E-02 12297 II/2 CME

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
16.03 >1015 <2335 S46W38L187 17
17.03 0936 1322 S11W09L131 11
22.03 >1002 <0005 N05W35L105 24
22.03 1505 1815 N19W20L090 23
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW
LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
уH - S35L167 S45L107 Ps S37L172 18.03 >8 G1 SDO, SOHO...
уH + N60L072 N50L079 N15L172 N18L177 17.03 7 G1 SDO, SOHO...
уH + S08L094 S18L088 S35L110 S33L112 22.03 SDO, SOHO...
уH + S16L086 S25L074 S27L078 S10L088 23.03 SDO, SOHO...
уH + N03L067 S05L062 S12L069 S08L075 24.03 SDO, SOHO...
The last three CH perhaps one, were formed on a visible disk of the
Sun at March, 16 - 18.
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 14.03/22 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO
PASS 23.03.

MARCH 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 MARCH
Wus 057 060 044 071 027 040 088
F10.7 117 114 115 109 113 114 122
иbcg B3.6 B3.3 B6.0 B3.5 B4.8 B4.0 B4.0 GOES
Sp 390 810 470 420 120 260 380 msh
N 2 1 2 3
IMF - - - - - - - буе
Е>2 1.3е+6 3.0е+5 4.8е+7 5.0е+8 7.6E+8 7.9E+8 2.7е+8 GOES
Ie>2 8129 14139 22318 19857 12337 pfu GOES
Ap 10 122 54 32 26 14 17 nT
Dst -3 -228 -189 -88 -72 -58 -56 nT KIOTO
Amsc 12 108 29 21 23 13 16 nT IZMIRAN
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Е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

MINOR PROTON EVENTS WERE REGISTERED FROM SOLAR FLARE M1.2 15/2242 UT:

Pr>10 MeV: to~16/0000 UT; tmax - 09 UT; te-15 UT;

THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL BEGAN 18.03/1515 UT AND WAS OBSERVED ON MARCH, 18 - 22.03.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 23 - 26.03.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE DISTURBED 17 - 20, 22.03. SEVERE MAG-
NETIC STORM (G5, Ams=117, dur. = 24 h.) - THE BIGGEST IN THE CURRENT
SOLAR CYCLE, BY DATA OF IZMIRAN 17 - 18.03 IS REGISTERED AFTER ARRIVAL
DISTURBANCE FROM FLARE C9.1/1F 15.03/0115 UT WITH "HALO" TYPE CME. AF-
TER IT, IN 6 HOURS, 18 - 19.03 MINOR the MAGNETIC STORM IS NOTED (G1,
Ams= 38, dur.= 18 h.) AND IN 15 HOURS (20.03) ONE MORE MINOR MAGNETIC
STORM (G0, Ams=24, dur.=30 h.) IS NOTED, AND 22.03 -SUBSTORM OF INTEN-
SITY (G1, dur. 6 h.) WAS REGISTERED ALSO.
ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN BOULDER 17-19.03 ONE LONG MAGNETIC STORM
WAS OBSERVED (G4, Ams = 83, dur. = 60 h.), AFTER WHICH IN 6 HOURS (19
- 20.03) MINOR MAGNETIC STORM FOLLOWED (G1, Ams= 33, dur.= 12 h.) AND
AT THE END OF THE DAY 20 AND 21.03 ONE MORE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1,
Ams= 25, dur.= 12 h.), AND 22.03 IT IS NOTED SUBSTORM OF G1 INTENSITY,
dur. 9 h. ALL THESE ADDITIONAL GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES WERE FED WITH
FLARES IN AR12297 AND SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS 17-18.03. ONLY 16 AND
21.03 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS UNSETTLED.

23 - 24 MARCH THE EARTH WILL PASS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAMS OF THE SOLAR
WIND FROM NEAR EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLES. 26.03 DISTURBANCE FROM SOLAR
FILAMENT EJECTIONS ON THE CENTRAL ZONE OF THE SUN 22.03 WILL APPROACH
THE EARTH. THEREFORE THESE DAYS GROWTH OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS
POSSIBLE. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC STORMS ABOUT 30%. IN OTHER DAYS GEO-
MAGNETIC CONDITIONS UNSETTLED AND QUIET IS EXPECTED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BRUSSEL, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, MJSCJW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru