Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20150316.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Mar 16 12:57:16 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:50:25 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: m 15

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 09 - 15.03.2015,
Forecast on 16 - 23.03.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2161 (27,93.03.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LE-
VEL, BUT IN THE LAST 2 DAYS OF THE PERIOD - ALREADY ON THE LOW.
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=031+21/-14. ON THE VISIB-
LE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 2-1 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS.

ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED FROM 1
TO 5 SUNSPOT GROUPS ONE OF WHICH WAS AVERAGE SIZE. AR12297- SUN-
SPOT GROUP IS FLARE-ACTIVE:

AR12297 (S17L196, CMP 13.03. 2014; Sp=420 msh)
XRI=6.02 on 14.03; X/1+M/15, from which 4 large;
PFR1 (1st period of large flares realization): 53 h. 5-7.03(M/4);
PFR2 - 72 h. 9-12.03 (X/1+M/11).

NEXT WEEK EXPECTED THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY. ESTIMA-
TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED
W = 030+10/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL ON 9 - 11 MARCH, AT THE
MIDDLE LEVEL - 12-15.03. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO
WERE OBSERVED >35 CME FROM WHICH ONE WAS "HALO" TYPE, ONE -"PAR-
TIAL HALO III" TYPE AND THREE - "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
09.03 1418 1422 >1455 S15E49L196 M4.5/1N 1.6E-02 12297
09.03 2329 2353 >0012 S18E45L196 M5.8/2N 8.5E-02 12297 IV/2
10.03 0319 0324 >0328 S15E40l196 M5.1/2B 1.7E-02 12297 II/2 IV/1 CME
10.03 2346 0002 >0006 S16E28L196 M2.9/SF 1.0E-02 12297
11.03 0710 0718 >0756 S16E26L196 M1.8/1B 2.2E-02 12297
11.03 0751 0757 >0803 M2.6 1.3E-02 12297
11.03 1401 1622 1809 S17E21L196 2B/X2.1 1.2E-01 12297 II/2
11.03 1837 1851 >1857 S16E18L196 M1.0/1N 6.3E-03 12297
12.03 0441 0446 >0450 S15E11L196 M3.2 1.1E-02 12297
12.03 1138 1150 >1202 S17E11L196 M1.6 1.5E-02 12297
12.03 1209 1214 >1218 S18E05L196 M1.4 5.5E-03 12297
12.03 1345 1408 1433 S15E06L196 2B/M4.2 2.1E-02 12297
12.03 2144 2151 >2156 S15E01L196 M2.7/ 1.2E-02 12297 II/1
13.03 0347 0401 >0416 S17E04L196 M1.2 1.4E-02 12297
13.03 0549 0607 >0612 S14W02L196 M1.8 1.3E-02 12297
14.03 0423 0440 0523 S14W12L196 M1.3/2N 1.4E-02 12297
15.03 0115 0213 0328 S22W25L196 C9.1/1F 4.8E-02 12297 II/2 IV/1 Pr CME
15.03 0936 0940 1012 S20W24L196 M1.0/SN 4.0E-03 12297
15.03 2242 2322 >2338 S19W32L196 M1.2/ 2.7E-02 12297 Pr CME

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
ON THE AVERAGE, AND THEN AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
СH - S35L167 S45L107 Ps S37L172 18.03 >8 G1 SDO, SOHO...
СH + N60L072 N50L079 N15L172 N18L177 17.03 7 G1 SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 14.03/22 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO
PASS 23.03.

МАРТ 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 МАРТ
Wus 029 042 042 056 087 056 054
F10.7 123 121 132 127 119 116 114
Хbcg B5.0 B5.4 B6.8 B9.5 B4.8 B4.1 B4.1 GOES
Sp 260 280 360 365 470 350 390 mvh
N 1 1 2
IMF + + + + + +\- + АСЕ
е>2 5.3Е+7 5.6Е+7 2.3Е+7 3.9Е+6 2.5E+6 7.6E+5 9.9Е+5 GOES
Ie>2 1148 1055 900 114 144 pfu GOES
Ap 5 5 8 8 5 6 9 nT
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 5 5 9 8 8 5 9 nT IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------
е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

MINOR PROTON EVENTS WERE REGISTERED FROM SOLAR FLARE C9.1/1F 15.03:
Pr>10 MeV: to ~ 15/0230 UT; tmax - 0930 UT; te- >21 UT;
Pr>10 MeV: to ~ 16/00 UT in develop., (from flare M1.2 15/2242 UT)

THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL BEGAN 08.03/1455 UT AND WAS OBSERVED ON MARCH, 8 - 10.03.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION ON NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND
QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE -
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, MJSCJW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru