Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20150302.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Mar 2 16:13:14 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:50:22 2016 Кодировка: Windows-1251 Поисковые слова: observatory

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON FEBRUARY 2015 HAS MADE
W feb.= 44.8,
THAT GIVES FOR 67 MONTHS (2014, AUGUST) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC-
LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*aug = 75.6
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014
THE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 81.9

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2015,
FEBRUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 76 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:

1.. 76 6.. 59 11.. 41 16.. 27 21.. 39 26.. 16
2.. 64 7.. 52 12.. 35 17.. 25 22.. 28 27.. 38
3.. 59 8.. 53 13.. 41 18.. 59 23.. 31 28.. 41
4.. 68 9.. 59 14.. 35 19.. 61 24.. 28
5.. 63 10.. 58 15.. 42 20.. 43 25.. 13

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
2015, FEBRUARY
F feb.= 129.1

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2015, FEBRUARY
Ap feb.= 9.1
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 23.02 - 01.03.2015,
Forecast on 02 - 09.03.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2160,2161 (1,28.02; 27,93.03.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL
ALL PERIOD. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 035+7/-12.
ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 3-4 SMALL SUN-
SPOT GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK EXPECTED THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT ACTI-
VITY. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EX-
PECTED W = 030+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL ON 23 - 24, 27 -28.02 AND 1.03,
THE VERY LOW - ON OTHER DAYS. SIX SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION WERE OC-
CURRENCE AT THE PERIOD. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WE-
RE OBSERVED >40 CME AMONG WHICH ONE WAS "PARTIAL GALO III" TYPE AND
SEVEN WERE "PARTIAL GALO II".

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Пp J/m-2
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
23.02 >0155 <0235 N18W71L127 18 12284
24.02 >0839 <2318 N10W41L084 14 12291
24.02 1938 2122 N16W40L083 13 12287
27.02 >1013 <2330 N24W54L064 20 12291
28.02 >0038 <1404 N13W09L009 11
28.02 >1018 <2333 S01W30L030 11 12292
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND THE VERY LOW LE-
VEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end Е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
уH + S05L078 S12L073 S15L083 S12L095 24.02 1 SDO, SOHO...
уH + N27L010 N20L005 N15L010 N20L015 02.03 1 SDO, SOHO...
уH - S28L000 S60L300 Ps S70L090 03.03 >7 G0 SDO, SOHO...
уH + N08L299 N05L297 S08L315 S05L317 06.03 1 SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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AFTER 27.02/09 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO
PASS 5.03.

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FEBRUARY 23 24 25 26 27 28 01 MARCH
Wus 044 063 064 039 058 070 066
F10.7 117 114 111 111 118 123 128
иbcg B3.3 B2.8 B2.8 B2.5 ч3.3 B4.4 B6.2 GOES
Sp 080 120 100 070 200 220 210 mvh
N 1 1 1
IMF -/+ + + + + +/- - буе
Е>2 2.9E+5 5.2е+5 3.8е+6 9.6е+6 1.3е+7 3.8E+6 1.4E+6 GOES
Ie>2 191 366 238 pfu GOES
Ap 18 29 7 4 3 13 23 nT
Dst -30 -58 -33 -14 -57 nT KIOTO
Amsc 19 21 14 5 6 14 23 nT IZMIRAN
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Е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 37, dur.= 15 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA
AND (G1, Ams=33, dur.= 21 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN BOULDER DATA WAS
NOTED ON 23 - 24 FEBRUARY. THIS MAGNETIC DISTURBANCE - RESULT OF PASSING
BY EARTH THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM CORONAL HOLE OF THE
SOLAR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE SECOND GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS NOTED
28.02-01.03 AND REACHED THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM LEVEL (G1, Ams= 31, dur.
= 18 h.) ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA AND (G1, Ams = 43, dur. = 12 h.)
ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN BOULDER. DOUBLE SOLAR FILAMENTS EJECTA BECA-
ME ON FEBRUARY 24 THE PROBABLE SOURCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE. IN OTHER DAYS
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BRUSSEL, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, MJSCJW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru