Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20150309.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Mar 9 11:51:09 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:50:24 2016 Кодировка: Windows-1251 Поисковые слова: star trail

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 02 - 08.03.2015,
Forecast on 09 - 16.03.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2161 (27,93.03.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LE-
VEL, BUT IN THE LAST 2 DAYS OF THE PERIOD - ALREADY ON THE LOW.
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=021+18/-12. ON THE VISIB-
LE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 2-1 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK EXPECTED THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY. ESTIMA-
TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED
W = 030+10/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL ON 3 AND 7 MARCH, AT THE
MIDDLE LEVEL-2, 5, 6.03 AND THE LOW-4 END 8.03. THE FIRST PERI-
OD OF HIGH FLARE ACTIVITY IS CONNECTED WITH ACTIVATION OF
SMALL AR12290 IN WHICH AT TWO DAYS PRIOR OF THE W-LIMB THERE
WERE SIGNS OF NEW MAGNETIC FLUX EMERGENCE. OCCURRENCE of 1 LARGE
AND 4 FLARES OF THE MIDDLE CLASS IN 19 HOURS (2 - 3.03) BECAME
RESULT. THE SECOND PERIOD OF THE HIGH FLARE ACTIVITY is CONNEC-
TED WITH THE SMALL AR 12297 (Sp= 140 НДР on 7.03) COMING TO THE
VISIBLE SOLAR DISK AT 6.03, IN WHICH 5 - 7.03 THERE WERE 3 SOLAR
FLARES OF THE MIDDLE CLASS AND ONE LARGE SOLAR FLARE. IN BOTH
CASES THE PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS WAS IMPOSSIBLE.
ONE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION WERE OCCURRENCE AT THE PERIOD. BY
DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED >36 CME FROM
WHICH THREE WERE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Пp J/m-2
02.03 0631 0639 >0644 N19W84L063 M1.0/1F 4.6E-03 12290 II/1 IV/1
02.03 0937 0948 >0958 N20W85L063 M1.1/ 9.4E-03 12290
02.03 1510 1528 >1537 N20W87L063 M3.7/ 3.1E-02 12290
02.03 1921 1931 >1936 N20W86L063 M4.1/ 1.9E-02 12290
03.03 0125 0135 >0157 N21W87L063 M8.2/SB 4.4E-02 12290 II/1 IV/1
05.03 1706 1811 >1826 S14E88L195 M1.2/ 2.3E-02 12297
06.03 0414 0457 >0527 S29E87L195 M3.0/ 9.0E-02 12297
06.03 0655 0815 >0828 S20E87L195 M1.5/ 6.8E-02 12297 CME
07.03 2145 2222 >2258 S19E74L195 M9.2/ 2.3E-01 12297 II/1 CME

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
07.03 >1020 <2306 N02E40L228 7
08.03 0910 1004 S13E64L190 10 C2.5/1F 12297
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
ON THE AVERAGE, AND THEN AT THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. AR 12297 HA-
VE MORE BIG FLARES TO GIVE OUT NOT PERHAPS IF THERE IS NO EMERGENCE
OF THE NEW SIGNIFICANT MAGNETIC FLUX.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
уH + N27L010 N20L005 N15L010 N20L015 02.03 1 SDO, SOHO...
уH - S28L000 S60L300 Ps S70L090 03.03 >7 G0 SDO, SOHO...
уH + N08L299 N05L297 S08L315 S05L317 06.03 1 SDO, SOHO...
уH - N22L222 N20L221 S15L232 S08L246 12.03 4 SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 4.03/15 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO
PASS 15.03.

MARCH 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 MARCH
Wus 065 038 043 031 037 020 023
F10.7 113 125 124 130 127 138 124
иbcg B9.4 B5.2 B5.1 B6.7 у1.0 B5.9 B6.6 GOES
Sp 170 140 250 075 050 180 240 mvh
N 1 2
IMF - - -/+ + + + + буе
Е>2 1.1е+7 6.4е+7 3.6е+7 3.9е+7 5.7E+5 4.7E+6 3.9е+7 GOES
Ie>2 356 2054 1283 1106 753 107 1636 pfu GOES
Ap 28 10 10 6 13 20 12 nT
Dst -65 -29 nT KIOTO
Amsc 26 10 9 7 12 19 11 nT IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL BEGAN 2.03/1240 UT AND WAS OBSERVED ON MARCH, 3-5.
THE SECOND INCREASE IS NOTED 08.03/1455 UT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 9 -11.03.

MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams= 31, dur.= 18 h.) ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA
AND (G1, Ams= 34, dur.= 18 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE IN BOULDER DATA WAS
NOTED ON 2.03. THIS MAGNETIC DISTURBANCE TURNED OUT TO BE CONSEQUENCE OF
EJECTION OF LARGE (~ 20 deg.) SOLAR FILAMENT ON 27.03. IN OTHER DAYS THE
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET THOUGH SEPARATE SUBSTORMS BY
INTENSITY (G0) WERE NOTED ON MARCH 7 - 8.

NEXT WEEK 12 AND 13.03 GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE GROWTH WHEN PASSING BY OUR
PLANET OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM NEAR EQUATOR CORONAL
HOLE IS POSSIBLE. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSET-
TLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE -
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, MJSCJW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru