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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 09 - 14.02.2015,
Forecast on 15 - 23.02.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2160 (1,28.02.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL
ALL DAYS. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 040+9/-11. ON THE
VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 4 - 3 SUNSPOT GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK EXPECTED THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS OF SUNSPOT ACTI-
VITY. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EX-
PECTED W = 040+10/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MODERATE LEVEL ON 14.02, THE VERY LOW -
AT 13-14 AND THE LOW ON OTHER DAYS. TWO SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION
WERE OCCURRENCE AT 14.02. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO
WERE OBSERVED > 12 CME. No Earth-directed CME were observed throug-
hout the period.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Пp J/m-2
09.02 2259 2335 >0004 N12E61L194 M2.4/ 7.6E-02 12282 II/1 IV/1 CME

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
14.02 >0024 <1418 S35E17L158 16
14.02 0850 1335 S42E32L143 26
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
уH - N17L223 S06L210 S13L215 S01L237 14.02 3 SDO, SOHO...
уH + N45L147 N42L072 N15L157 N17L161 18.02 6 G0 SDO, SOHO...
уH + Ps - the South pole coronal hole SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 05.02/12 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO
PASS 15.02.

FEBRUARY 09 10 11 12 13 14 FEBRUARY
Wus 082 082 076 050 059 049
F10.7 146 141 131 128 125 120
иbcg B8.0 B9.1 B5.2 ч4.6 B4.3 B3.8 GOES
Sp 470 610 510 400 290 250 mvh
N 1 1
IMF + + + + + + буе
Е>2 2.1E+7 1.1е+7 1.4е+8 1.1е+7 6.7е+6 1.1E+7 GOES
Ie>2 530 295 460 399 288 318 pfu GOES
Ap 6 6 6 5 2 2 nT
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 12 7 6 8 5 3 nT IZMIRAN
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Е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK UNSETTLED AND QUIET GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS MOST PROBABLE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BRUSSEL, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, MJSCJW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru